Wednesday, March 12, 2008

Who Can Beat McCain?

that's what it all boils down to.
each candidate has to make their case to the superdelegates that they can beat mccain. why the superdelegates?
there just aren't enough pledged delegates left ( 2,025 is the magic number) for either candidate to win by pledged delegates, so it will be up to the supers, who are free to support whichever candidate they want.
the way it stands now, after mississippi, obama strengthened his lead in popular vote to about 700,000 (see my sidebar), has won the most states, and increased his pledged delegate lead to 148 and is gaining on clinton in supers.
there are about 300 undecided supers, 796 in all. note, that even if michigan and florida delegates were counted as they are now (which isn't fair seeing that obama's name wasn't even on the michigan ballot and he didn't campaign in florida because the two states were supposedly ousted for not following party rules) obama would still lead in delegates, 1,452 delegates, to clinton's 1,415.
since march 3, obama has gained 14 supers to clinton's 6 (one of those was an add-on from february). these numbers come from this super duper up to date delegate tracker.
note that many of the news organizations combine pledged delegates and superdelegates, which shouldn't be happening because you can't get an accurate count. supers don't have to vote like their state or their districts, and supers can change their mind, as many have, and they can vote for whichever candidate they choose. most of the news organization are in disagreement with these numbers.
but even when the pledged delegates and the superdelegates are added, obama still leads. obama needs 432 more pledged delegates and clinton, 541.
clinton's only case is to the superdelegates. they're likely to only care about one thing: who can beat john mccain?
clinton's argument for winning is her "big state" theory, which doesn't prove out in a general Superdelegates, Superdelegates, Superdelegates
On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds Of Superdelegates 2
General Election Map and Calculator
Obama: the Un-Beholden President
Bogus Big States Argument
Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy
It’s Still Over for Clinton