Thursday, March 06, 2008

Superdelegates, Superdelegates, Superdelegates

the momentum is still with obama
i don't know if anyone has noticed but superdelegates are signing up for obama.
he had two that endorsed him yesterday, march 5. he had two endorse him on march 4. (see updates in sidebar)
so, since march 3, obama has gained four, when the msnbc count was: superdelegates obama = 208 clinton = 254. (mind you, all the delegate counters are different)
that makes the count obama: 212 and clinton: 254. since super tuesday, obama gained 42. clinton lost 6. there are about 300 "undecided." i think undecided for most means "i'm not telling."
how many has clinton gained? i looked for them but couldn't find any announced supers endorsing clinton recently.

why are the superdelegates deciding the race?
because neither candidate can realistically get the 2025 pledged delegates needed. the math just doesn't work out. so the superdelegates votes will be needed. i have a good feeling about supers. i didn't at first but i think they'll consider 1) who has the popular vote 2)who has momentum 3)who did their people vote for 4)who's going to beat john mccain.

i don't think they'll be so hardheaded as to throw the contest. they'll be fair, otherwise they wouldn't be superdelegates.
this story says clinton's only hope is to win the popular vote. she's still 600,000 votes behind obama.
Clinton's only hope lies in the popular vote—a yardstick on which she now trails Obama by about 600,000 votes. Should she end the primary season in June with a lead in popular votes, she could get a hearing from uncommitted superdelegates for all the other arguments that she would make a stronger nominee (wins the big states, etc.). If she loses both the pledged delegate count and the popular vote, no argument will cause the superdelegates to disenfranchise millions of Democratic voters. It will be over.
but clinton's kitchen sink strategy includes cheating. she's trying to get the michigan delegates to count (obama wasn't on the ballot there) and the florida delegates to count (obama didn't campaign there). both states were penalized for not playing by the democratic party rules. they knew what they were getting into. and both candidates understood that at the start.
see up to date superdelegate add ons in my sidebar.

Superdelegates explained

up to date election results