that's what it all boils down to.
each candidate has to make their case to the superdelegates that they can beat mccain. why the superdelegates?
there just aren't enough pledged delegates left ( 2,025 is the magic number) for either candidate to win by pledged delegates, so it will be up to the supers, who are free to support whichever candidate they want.
the way it stands now, after mississippi, obama strengthened his lead in popular vote to about 700,000 (see my sidebar), has won the most states, and increased his pledged delegate lead to 148 and is gaining on clinton in supers.
there are about 300 undecided supers, 796 in all. note, that even if michigan and florida delegates were counted as they are now (which isn't fair seeing that obama's name wasn't even on the michigan ballot and he didn't campaign in florida because the two states were supposedly ousted for not following party rules) obama would still lead in delegates, 1,452 delegates, to clinton's 1,415.
since march 3, obama has gained 14 supers to clinton's 6 (one of those was an add-on from february). these numbers come from this super duper up to date delegate tracker.
note that many of the news organizations combine pledged delegates and superdelegates, which shouldn't be happening because you can't get an accurate count. supers don't have to vote like their state or their districts, and supers can change their mind, as many have, and they can vote for whichever candidate they choose. most of the news organization are in disagreement with these numbers.
but even when the pledged delegates and the superdelegates are added, obama still leads. obama needs 432 more pledged delegates and clinton, 541.
clinton's only case is to the superdelegates. they're likely to only care about one thing: who can beat john mccain?
clinton's argument for winning is her "big state" theory, which doesn't prove out in a general Superdelegates, Superdelegates, Superdelegates
On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds Of Superdelegates 2
General Election Map and Calculator
Obama: the Un-Beholden President
Bogus Big States Argument
Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy
It’s Still Over for Clinton
Showing posts with label clinton delegate count. Show all posts
Showing posts with label clinton delegate count. Show all posts
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Monday, March 03, 2008
Vote of Confidence from Obama Camp
do the delegate math yourself.
i did a scenario favoring clinton and clinton still wasn't ahead.
here's what i entered: in ohio, clinton gets 103 delegates; obama 38 (unrealistic)
in texas, clinton gets 107 and obama 86, in rhode island, clinton gets 18, obama 3 and vermont obama, 9; clinton, 6, (vermont is clearly obama country) that leaves the score: 1505 obama, 1501 clinton. may the math be with us.
reality check from obama campaign manager david plouffe:
Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]
Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]
Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]
New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.” [NYT, 2/22/08]
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By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.
There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.
So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.
While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.
The Clinton campaign has insisted that this is a race about delegates. And we agree. The tale of March 4th is not who wins what states but where the delegate battle stands after all the delegate yield for all four of these contests have been allocated.
i did a scenario favoring clinton and clinton still wasn't ahead.
here's what i entered: in ohio, clinton gets 103 delegates; obama 38 (unrealistic)
in texas, clinton gets 107 and obama 86, in rhode island, clinton gets 18, obama 3 and vermont obama, 9; clinton, 6, (vermont is clearly obama country) that leaves the score: 1505 obama, 1501 clinton. may the math be with us.
reality check from obama campaign manager david plouffe:
Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]
Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]
Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]
New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.” [NYT, 2/22/08]
-------------------------------------------
By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.
There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.
So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.
While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.
The Clinton campaign has insisted that this is a race about delegates. And we agree. The tale of March 4th is not who wins what states but where the delegate battle stands after all the delegate yield for all four of these contests have been allocated.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Obama Clinton Debate CNN Live Video
april 16 debate and live stream here
cnn.com will stream the debate live in texas at 8 pm eastern time.
expectations for tonight at burnt orange report, a political blog in texas.
in thge polls for texas, it's just about even, with an edge for clinton.
in delegates, here's how it stands:
pledged obama is 1,187
pledged clinton is 1,028
superdelegates obama: 173
superdelegates clinton: 238
up for grabs: 384
total delegates obama: 1,360
total delegates clinton: 1,266
Blueprint for change
what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced
Historians for Obama
Upcoming primary and caucus schedule
Delegate tracker
Everything barack obama
cnn.com will stream the debate live in texas at 8 pm eastern time.
expectations for tonight at burnt orange report, a political blog in texas.
in thge polls for texas, it's just about even, with an edge for clinton.
in delegates, here's how it stands:
pledged obama is 1,187
pledged clinton is 1,028
superdelegates obama: 173
superdelegates clinton: 238
up for grabs: 384
total delegates obama: 1,360
total delegates clinton: 1,266
Blueprint for change
what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced
Historians for Obama
Upcoming primary and caucus schedule
Delegate tracker
Everything barack obama
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