Sunday, April 27, 2008

No How, No Way Can Hillary Win

this is the best analysis i've seen yet of hillary's impossible chances.

the analysis, dated april 23, starts with the tallies: 1,719 total delegates for Obama and 1,586 for Clinton (obama has added a few more supers since then).

here are her slim to none chances that i don't think her supporters recognize. the only purpose she's serving is her and bill's ego. i feel bad for her $5 and $10 supporters, who really can't afford to give anything at all. to them, i say, let the big donors give. keep your money.

Either Candidate needs a minimum of 2025 delegates to win the nomination.

Now if one of the candidates were to win every remaining primary and obtain every superdelegate available the total would be 503 delegates.

That means Sen Barack Obama would have 2222 delegates

If Sen Hillary Clinton were to garner all remaining delegates, she would have 2089

Hillary Clinton has a cushion of 64 delegates and Barack Obama has a cushion of 197.

The breakdown is 95 superdelegates and 408 pledged delegates.

If Hillary garnered ALL pledged delegates and NO superdelegates, she would have 1994.

If Obama garnered ALL pledged delegates and NO superdelegates, he would have 2127

If Obama obtained NO pledged delegates and ALL superdelegates, he would have 1814

That would mean Obama would need all 95 superdelegates and 211 out of the 408 available

Right now, Hillary Clinton needs 439 delegates, regardless of where they come from. That's 439 out of 503 available. Something tells me that Barack Obama is going to gain at least 64 delegates from the remaining contests between May 3rd and June 3rd.
the rest of the article has a breakdown of the coming primaries. definitely a must read.