Republicans Had Primaries Yesterday Too

who knew.

No Way, No How Can McCain Win

They're Not Going to Go Down Easy

i love that line, which comes from obama:

indy star: When asked whether he had done enough to win over the state’s working class voters, Obama referenced his results in previous primaries.

“It’s really been a mixed bag. There’s been some states where we won the blue-collar vote – we won it in Wisconsin, we won it in Iowa, we won it in Minnesota,” Obama said. “Then there are other states where we haven’t done so well, mainly because people are much more familiar with Sen. Clinton, President Clinton and their track record. So you have got to give them credit. They’re the best-established brand name in Democratic politics, maybe in politics overall.”

Much of Obama’s effort to reach out to those blue-collar voters has included rejecting Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s plan for a gas tax holiday this summer.

“They’ve been on the scene for 20 years. They’re not going to go down easy,” Obama said of the Clintons. “We’ve just got to keep on delivering our message that if we’re going to change things like high gas prices, we can’t keep doing the same Washington-style patchwork solutions that we’ve been doing.”

While Obama leaned on the Clinton brand as a reason why he’s lost the blue-collar vote in other states, he admitted in Indiana those voters should be more familiar with him.

“Absolutely,” he said. “One of the great things about traveling through Indiana is that it feels like home.”

here's to hoping that indiana and north carolina put an end to hillary's campaign. also note, that indiana has 200,000 newly registered voters. no one knows how they'll vote. visit realclearpolitics for the latest polls.

Happy Voting North Carolina and Indiana

last night's indiana rally with 21,000 peeps

here's once again hoping that obama shoots some three pointers this morning. if you are voting for hillary, may you accidentally vote for obama :-)

the media is wondering whether obama will get the white working-class vote (that depends if race is as big of a factor in indiana and north carolina as pennsylvania and ohio). what i'm wondering is why can't hillary get the black vote, the younger vote and the independents?

Hoosiers For Obama

Early Voting Favors Obama in Indiana

let's hope prof. dion is right.

rcp: About 20 percent of the 127,000-plus absentee ballots received as of early Friday were cast in three Indiana counties" Marion, Monroe and Lake" that political observers believe Obama is strongly favored to win.

Lake County has a large population of black voters and is in Chicago's shadow. Obama has typically won big among college-age voters, and Monroe County is the home of Indiana University in Bloomington. Obama's campaign sought out IU students with voter registration and early voting drives and a free Dave Matthews concert.

Robert Dion, a professor of American politics at the University of Evansville, said Obama has mounted an innovative campaign that's stressed early voting and his supporters appear more energized than those for Clinton.

"In a close race, modest advantages in organization can yield big results, and if Obama out-organizes the Clinton campaign on these absentee ballots, it would be a great boost to him," Dion said.

Three other Indiana counties" St. Joseph, Vanderburgh and Vigo counties" have amassed more than 20,000 early ballots between them, about 16 percent of the total absentees cast statewide.

Latest Indiana and North Carolina Polls

keep in mind, polls are meant to influence as much as measure. for what they're worth, here are the latest polls, which are fluctuating wildly:
North Carolina Democratic Primary
Rasmussen Obama 51, Clinton 37
Obama +14.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary
SurveyUSA Obama 49, Clinton 44
Obama +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
PPP (D) Clinton 50, Obama 42
Clinton +8.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
Howey-Gauge Clinton 45, Obama 47
Obama +2.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Clinton 47
Clinton +1.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Clinton 41
Obama +8.0

Bill Closes Factory Hillary Criticizes Closure

typical hypocritical twosome. instead of offering more loathing today, i'll let this story speak for itself:

Clinton is airing this advertisement in Indiana, bemoaning the closure of a defense contractor Magnequench's manufacturing plant in Valparaiso (she is also echoing this line in her stump speeches). Looking at the camera, she tells us she's upset that the 200 jobs that were sent to China, and that "now America's defense relies on Chinese spare parts." And then comes the kicker: She tells viewers that "George Bush could have stopped it, but he didn't."

Clinton is certainly right that it is a tragedy that 200 American jobs were killed in a corporate deal that also exported sensitive military technology to China. But she forgets to mention that it wasn't George Bush who was in the key position to stop it - it was Bill Clinton.

Obama's Making Subtle Effective Changes

after watching nearly every rally and town hall, obama has made subtle changes to his town hall sessions and it seems to be working. he's doing a great job of connecting the dots for people, making his style of politics, bottom up, easier to understand.

he's taken off his jacket and rolled up his sleeves and has invited regular citizens to introduce him. the town hall in indiana yesterday with a resident relating his story of losing his job to the audience, was powerful.

wash post: He didn't put it that way exactly. But in a noteworthy shift, the Illinois senator is trying to reach working-class and middle-class voters by arguing more explicitly that the reform ideas driving his campaign can address the economic troubles that threaten their way of life. Supplanting lobbyist influence with citizen activism, uniting the country beyond petty partisan gamesmanship and bringing more candor to government, he argues, are not just abstract goals, but concrete steps that can level the playing field and lead to a more equitable distribution of the nation's wealth.

"When we push back the special interests, when we unify the country, when we speak honestly with the American people about our challenges, there's nothing we can't accomplish, nothing we can't do," he said here. "When we unify the country, we will change our economy."

Marion Resident Kicks Off Obama Town Hall

a marion, indiana resident makes a compelling, heartfelt speech at an obama town hall. he talks about how the loss of his job affected his life. what a fabulous way to kick off a town hall, to have a real person tell his or her story. more, more, more of that.

it's interesting to note that indianans are in the same boat as pennsalvanians yet from what i can tell, they are less bitter, for lack of a better word. indianans and pennsylvanians face the same reality -- their jobs, manufacturing jobs that they've held all their lives, were stripped away and they've since had to retrain for new jobs, when they're near retirement. that is truly sad.

but pennsylvanians seemed much more bitter. at first, it seemed indiana was going to be more of the same. but indianans seem to have a different temperament. they seem to be more hopeful. maybe it's because hillary has had less of a divisive influence there, or maybe because indianans know better.

Hillary's Father Had a Drapery Business

oh my gosh, when you think she couldn't get anymore pander-y, hillary drags out draperies in indiana, talking about how she helped her father at his drapery business and how it gave her midwestern values.

i don't know what her values are but they are far from midwestern. i know many pundits are calling on obama to do the same, become a chameleon, but it seems so transparent and phony.

cnn: Talking about helping her father (a “small businessman,” she emphasized) in his drapery business when she was growing up in Chicago, Clinton told the crowd, “It was one of the many experiences that really taught me the values that I’ve had my entire life. You know, hard work, self-reliance, individual responsibility. Good Midwestern values that we were raised with and that we believe in.”

“I feel so fortunate to have that kind of background and upbringing and I know that’s what many of you have experienced as well here in Ft. Wayne and across Indiana,” she added.

Indianans Say Hillary is the Negative Candidate By Far

thank you indiana. that indianans recognize hillary's lousy disposition means obama has a good chance there.

south bend tribune: One thing Hoosiers have noticed is the tone of the campaign, according to the poll.

Some 48 percent said Clinton was running the more negative campaign of the two, compared to the 23 percent who pointed their finger at Obama. About 21 percent said both were equally negative and 8 percent weren’t sure.

And what do the campaigns think of that?

Clinton has answered Obama attacks, Swain said.

“You really can’t sit back and let misleading statements or attacks go unanswered,” he said. “And so from our campaign, it really is about setting the record straight, making sure that if there were questions about Senator Clinton’s record on an issue that the voters actually have the facts in front of them.”

Obama, on the other hand, has benefited from the perception that Clinton is more negative, even in Pennsylvania, said Griffis, his Indiana spokesman.

who can beat mccain in indiana (indiana hasn't voted for a democrat president in decades):

south bend tribune: The poll asked separate samples of voters who would win against John McCain - Clinton or Obama?

In either scenario, McCain wins Indiana, but Obama is slightly closer to beating him than is Clinton.

McCain would get 52 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 41 percent, said the sample of 600 likely voters from both parties.

McCain would get 51 percent to Obama’s 43 percent.

Hello Indiana

ugh.

nyt: “We are manufacturing workers, farmers, beer drinkers, gun owners, pickup drivers,” said Karen Lasley, 64, who was volunteering on Wednesday morning in Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s field office in Kokomo (one of 28 Mrs. Clinton has opened around the state along with Senator Barack Obama’s 22, including one just down the street). “We are full of pride for this country.”

these people are fooling themselves to think hillary is anything like them. this is what makes the clintons so cunning. they are able to exploit people for votes by morphing into shot-drinking, gun-toting, pick-up driving folks. bill is playing up the "bubba factor" in north carolina.
it's called pandering, folks.

Should Obama Go Negative?

hillary's pennsylvania win (she will net about 15 delegates) allows her to go on and we will have more of the same, only more. without a doubt, it's not just the earth that is in peril but the democratic party is in peril. first, john mccain is looking better, hitting up places that republicans don't typically tread. kudos to him on that.

the republicans are pleased that hillary's still in the race. by the end, both candidates will be less than what they were to start and easier to beat.

today clinton is gloating, using her rousing line that she didn't back down and that she's a fighter. her supporters love that. but i'd like to remind everyone that party leaders began calling for clinton to quit when the clintons started clawing, degrading the election and tearing apart democrats with the kitchen sink strategy of saying whatever it takes, even if it's not true.

the backstory is that clinton waited for john kerry to have his shot and it was supposed to be a given that this election was hillary's. but obama has put a damper on that and the clinton machine isn't happy.

expect the weather underground to pop back up, jeremiah wright, lapel pins, elitism and maybe even something new. turns out many pennsylvanians fell for the "bitter" exploitation. i don't know if obama can overcome working class objections without going negative.

the question is should he? in pennsylvania, obama won more men, younger voters and the new democrats and party switchers. can obama's base compensate for hillary's base of older people and "lunch box" workers, those not inclined to vote for a black person, in the general election?

nyt: The results of the exit poll, conducted at 40 precincts across Pennsylvania by Edison/Mitofsky for the television networks and The Associated Press, also found stark evidence that Mr. Obama’s race could be a problem in the general election. Sixteen percent of white voters said race mattered in deciding who they voted for, and just 54 percent of those voters said they would support Mr. Obama in a general election; 27 percent of them said they would vote for Mr. McCain if Mr. Obama was the Democratic nominee, and 16 percent said they would not vote at all.

that's really sad and despicable that people vote on race. good luck with that.

wash post: Unable once again to score a knockout, Sen. Barack Obama is likely to make his new negative tone even more negative -- with a sharp eye on trying to end the Democratic presidential nomination fight after the May 6 primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's victory yesterday in Pennsylvania has only accentuated the quandary that Obama faces: Stay negative and he risks undermining the premise of his candidacy. Stay aloof and he underscores Clinton's argument that he will not be able to beat a "Republican attack machine" sure to greet him this summer.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe indicated last night which of those options they would take. "We've done a lot of counterpunching. We've been swift and effective," he said. "For Democrats judging how we're going to perform as the nominee, we have been relentless."

Obama himself took up the cudgel after Clinton delivered a victory speech in Philadelphia devoid of attack lines. Without naming Clinton, he suggested in Evansville, Ind., that she is a captive to the oil, pharmaceutical and insurance lobbies, that she "says and does whatever it takes to win the next election," and that she exploits division for political gain.

"In the end, this election is still our best chance to solve the problems we've been talking about for decades -- as one nation, as one people," Obama said.

The Hillary Reality

the hillary camp won't be throwing back the shots for too long. she's not in pennsylvania anymore:

wash post: Clinton's path to the nomination remains extraordinarily treacherous even after the victory in Pennsylvania. Her margin was decisive, but even some of her most loyal supporters privately expressed doubts last night that she can prevail in the long battle against Obama.

The senator from Illinois still leads in the number of pledged delegates and the popular vote. He is almost certain to hold the delegate lead and will probably maintain the popular-vote advantage when the primaries end in early June. Perhaps more important, Clinton's campaign is nearly broke, whereas Obama has an enormous amount of money in the bank to throw into the next two contests and beyond.

But for the second time in seven weeks, first in the Texas and Ohio primaries and now in Pennsylvania, Obama did not deliver a decisive blow against Clinton when he had an opportunity to bring the race to an end, despite heavily outspending her and waging an aggressive and negative campaign in the final days. His advisers had hoped to hold Clinton's victory margin to mid-single digits and appeared to have fallen short of that goal.

"He broke every spending record in this state trying to knock us out of this race," Clinton told her supporters in Philadelphia last night. "Well, the people of Pennsylvania had other ideas."

Obama's loss in Pennsylvania raised anew questions about his ability to win the big industrial states that will be critical to the Democrats' hopes of winning back the White House in November. In the coming days, Clinton's camp will try to play on those doubts with uncommitted superdelegates -- who have been moving toward Obama over the past two months -- urging them to remain neutral until the primaries are over.

Geoff Garin, Clinton's co-chief strategist, called Pennsylvania a potential turning point in the Democratic race. "Senator Obama had every opportunity to go out and make his case and show he could win an industrial state," he said. "The fact that Hillary not just held her own but gained strength at the end gives us real momentum going into Indiana and North Carolina."

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said the loss was expected and did little to change the trajectory of a nomination battle that continues to favor his candidate.

"Some states are stronger for our opponent," he said. "Some are stronger for us. We assumed she had an edge there [in Pennsylvania] and we would try to keep it as close as we could. You have to be clear-eyed about that. We have two contests coming up in two weeks. We'll see where the race is after that. . . . The structure of the delegate contest will not be changed appreciably, and that's the most important factor in the race." more

indiana and north carolina hold primaries may 6. west virginia, may 13.
indiana polls

Obama's Delegate and Popular Vote Lead

it's all about the numbers.
obama's rally yesterday in philly set records. 35,000 attended.
associated press analysis says obama could end up within 100 delegates of winning the nomination (2,025 delegates are needed), which is why hillary appears more desperate:

ap Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls in advance of Tuesday’s primary there, with 158 convention delegates at stake. A victory is essential to her chances of winning the nomination, but far from sufficient. Instead, a triumph of any magnitude would instantly establish Indiana on May 6 as her next must-win state, particularly since her aides have privately signaled that defeat is likely in North Carolina on the same day.

Overall, Obama’s delegate lead is 1,645-1,507. That masks an even larger advantage among those won in primaries and caucuses. There, his advantage is 1,414-1,250. An additional 566 delegates are at stake in the remaining contests in eight states, Guam and Puerto Rico before the primary season ends on June 3.

If Obama captures 53 percent of them, which is the share he has gained in contests to date, he would close out the primary season with at least 1,945 delegates, only 80 less than the total needed to clinch the nomination. If he and Clinton split the 566 evenly, he would still be within 100 of the number needed.

Clinton needs to win a forbidding 65 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries to draw even with Obama in pledged delegates. It’s a share she has achieved only once so far, in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for more than a decade.

Given the unyielding delegate math, Clinton has relied for weeks on forbearance from party leaders to sustain her challenge. And they are growing restless, eager for the epic nomination battle to end so Democrats can unify for the fall campaign against John McCain and the Republicans.

obama also has the popular vote lead by 717,086 votes. that's not including the caucuses, where obama has a 213,142 lead over clinton, for an edge of 930,228 votes altogether. (thanks to a reader for that, who sourced CNN). obama: 504,420 clinton: 291,278 other: 795,698
the caucus votes tallied were for 12 states not including texas. i'm not sure if texas caucus votes have been included in any statistics.
what hillary must do to win--one of the best videos yet.

Clinton McCain Caught Red-Handed

both tried to accuse obama of elitism. clinton and mccain both used an anti-obama story was posted on the huffington post yesterday, which was pointing out comments obama made last sunday, to say obama was out of touch. again, this isn't the first time obama has talked about this subject. it's just that some writer happened to write about it.
here's part of what he said:

Obama's comments came at the end of a lengthy answer in which he rejected the notion that voters were passing him over simply for racial reasons, saying instead that his campaign of hope and change was having difficulty in "places where people feel most cynical about government."

"Everybody just ascribes it to 'white working-class . . . don't want to vote for the black guy,' " Obama said at the fundraiser.

"Here's how it is: In a lot of these communities in big industrial states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, people have been beaten down so long. They feel so betrayed by government that when they hear a pitch that is premised on not being cynical about government, then a part of them just doesn't buy it. And when it's delivered by -- it's true that when it's delivered by a 46-year-old black man named Barack Obama, then that adds another layer of skepticism."

but obama called both of them out for what they are, panderers and suck ups, trying to win at the cost of their own integrity. obama has more sense and character than the two of them put together. obama gets the working class worker.

whereas someone like myself gets angry about people who wouldn't vote for someone because he's black, obama is ever patient and understands the thinking behind their ugly thoughts. he never blankets anything in racism.

this episode proved exactly the opposite of what clinton and mccain tried to accomplish. it proves who the real leader is.
video of his response to mccain and clinton during an indiana town hall.

wash post:

But before a raucous crowd in Terre Haute, Ind., Friday night, Obama not only repeated many of the same lines, he expanded on them.

"When I go around and talk to people, there is frustration and there is anger and there is bitterness. And what's worse is when people are expressing their anger, and politicians try to say, 'What are you angry about?' "

"Of course they're bitter. Of course they're frustrated. You would be, too -- in fact, many of you are," Obama said.

He also addressed the same social hot-button issues that Clinton and McCain pointed to as evidence of elitism. "And so people don't vote on economic issues, because they don't expect anybody's going to help them. People are voting on issues like guns, are they going to have the right to bear arms. They vote on issues like gay marriage. They take refuge in their faith and their community and their families and the things they can count on. But they don't believe they can count on Washington."

Obama also returned fire on both his critics. "Here's what's rich: Senator Clinton says, 'I don't think people are bitter in Pennsylvania. I think Barack's being condescending.' John McCain says, 'He's obviously out of touch with people.' Out of touch? John McCain, it took him three tries to figure out the home foreclosure crisis was a problem and to come up with a plan for it, and he's saying I'm out of touch? Senator Clinton voted for a credit-card-sponsored bankruptcy bill that made it harder for people to get out of debt -- after taking money from the financial services companies -- and she says I'm out of touch?

"No, I'm in touch. I know exactly what's going on. . . . People are fed up. They're angry and they're frustrated and they're bitter, and they want to see a change in Washington."

Hillary’s Gift Basket Politics

Hillary’s Loyalty Politics

Obama: Clinton McCain Out of Touch

earlier in the day, clinton and mccain rapped on obama for saying that lunchbox workers were "bitter" and in terre haute indiana, where he's speaking now (i'll post video later), obama used the "bitter" word over and over, reinforcing the point that he's in touch and mccain and clinton are panderers.
in order of out of touchness:
1) mccain
2) clinton

Obama: The Heart And Mind Connection

south bend mayor stephen luecke said this at an obama rally in indiana:

I support Barack Obama for president because he connects our minds and our hearts,” Mayor Luecke said. “No longer do we have to choose.”

that's true about obama. he's intellectual but at the same time, he captures your imagination.
here's more of that story:

Those who heard Obama speak said they felt an energy they haven't felt in years.

“We've been here since about 7 o'clock,” said Kathy Waters, an Obama supporter. “People were packed in, but they were kind to each other. It was charged.”

“The energy is incomparable,” said Rev. Andre McGhee, pastor of Greater St. John Missionary Baptist Church. "I was really fascinated by it. He gave me hope. I believe if we give him an opportunity to serve the country, he will do a fine job."

Obama's Truth Squad

obama has set up a "truth squad" in indiana to forcefully defend against flying kitchen sinks. you know it's coming (unless the democratic elders berated her into silence). clinton must have an obama sex tape or photos of obama smoking in a dimly-lit bar (you know she's probably been dying for one of those)
here's the team:

south bend tribune: The "Truth Squad" includes former U.S. Rep. Tim Roemer, who represented South Bend from 1991 to 2003; state Sen. Earline Rogers, D-Gary; state House Majority Leader Russ Stilwell, D-Boonville; and former aides to former Gov. Joe Kernan, former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson and three attorneys general.

obama had a truth squad in south carolina too.

Obama Leads Youth Vote in Indiana

it is a dead heat in indiana with obama leading the young people and clinton leading the old. hmmmmm. let's hope for a swarming of the polls.

cnn: The poll, conducted from March 31 through April 2 by Research 2000, shows 49 percent of the likely Democratic voters would favor Clinton and 46 percent would favor Obama if the states primary were held today. With the polls margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, the two candidates are statistically tied.

Indiana voters are particularly divided among age: Obama beats Clinton 63-36 percent among 18 and 29 year-olds while those 60 and older favored Clinton, 60-34 percent.