There's Something Seriously Wrong With This Poll

Seriously wrong. This essentially proves my theory that there's no good poll unless it's a good poll. There is no way that that many Americans would vote for Palin. No way.
No way Obama's tied with Romney. Ick.

Why are all these polls coming out now?

If the 2012 presidential election were held today, President Obama and possible Republican nominee Mitt Romney would be all tied up at 45% each, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.
The president, seeking a second four-year term, beats another potential GOP rival, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, by six points – 48% to 42%.
In both match-ups, seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, with three percent (3%) undecided. Rasmussen

Democrats better step up their game and start throwing some support behind Obama who's been carrying the baton since before he took office. But he hasn't been able to pass it off because no one is there. Democrats--who have enough votes--are whining about health care instead of getting it done. We don't want to hear that it might not get done, or that it might take longer. Just shut your pie holes and do it. That's what you're paid to do. Honestly, what do these people do all day long?

54% of Americans Say Worse Off Since 9-11

Rasmussen: With the seventh anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks this week, over half of Americans (54%) still believe the country has changed for the worse since the events of that day, but this marks the first time the number has fallen in over six years.
Twenty-four percent (24%) say the change has been for the better, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Rasmussen's electoral college -- where it stands. It's 259 to 247 with the leaners included, Obama's edge.Toss up states: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia for a total of 32 electoral votes. You do the math- 270 to win.

85% of Americans Would Vote for Black Candidate

Rasmussen has been polling on this since February. The most prejudiced folks are seniors and republicans.

Without a doubt, it's a generational thing. The younger generation doesn't care about this stuff. There are always exceptions. The older people have history with racism. As far as republicans, for some reason, it seems conservative types are more prone to racism. I believe it's because republicans have a tendency to be more exclusive as opposed to inclusive. 

But the good news is the number of people who said they'd be willing to vote for a black candidate has risen from 73% in February to 85% in July. Progress 

electoral-vote: Speaking of things under the radar, one item of intense speculation all year is how many voters will refuse to vote for a candidate because he is black. Rasmussen has been polling on this question since it became clear early this year that that might become one of the options. In a poll taken July 29, 85% of the respondents said that would be willing to vote for an African-American candidate and 8% said they would not. Now, of course, some of them may be lying, but remember that all of Rasmussen's polls are automated and experience has shown in other controversial areas that people who are unwilling to admit prejudice to a human caller will do it more readily to a computer. Also, in February, only 73% answered that they were willing to vote for a black candidate. Undoubtedly many prejudiced voters personal experience with blacks is with people in low-end jobs. Seeing a U.S. senator with two Ivy League degrees who draws huge, worshipping crowds everywhere he goes, both at home and abroad, may give them a different perspective.

This directly from Rasmussen, which did the polling.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 85% of Likely Voters say they are willing, up from 78% in early June. In February, that figure was 73%.
While most voters are becoming more comfortable voting for a black president, they are not so sure about their family and friends. Sixty-four percent (64%) now say they believe their family, friends and co-workers would be willing to support a black candidate, up slightly from 61% in June.
Today, just 8% say they would not be willing to vote for an African-American President and 13% say their peers would not. In June, 11% said they would not vote for an African-American candidate, while 14% said that of their peers.
There is, however, a significant generational issue. While 75% of senior citizens say they would vote for an African-American candidate, just 49% say their peers would do the same. Sixteen percent (16%) of seniors say their peers would not vote for an African-American and 34% are not sure. A person who is 65 today would have first been eligible to vote in 1964, the year when Lyndon Johnson was first elected. A major Voting Rights Act and other civil rights legislation passed in that year. For a thirty-year old voter today, those events were in the history books during pre-school days. read the rest. 

Also, take a look at the electoral map. Looks good to me. So does the Zogby version. 

Americans Liked Obama's Berlin Speech

You'd think Obama just stepped in doggie doo the way the pundits talk about his overseas visit.

Rasmussen: Over half of Americans (55%) rate Barack Obama’s historic speech in Berlin yesterday good or excellent, and the Democratic presidential candidate is experiencing a modest bounce over John McCain nationally in the latest Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In a new Rasmussen Reports national survey, 26% grade the speech, delivered before an enthusiastic crowd of more than 200,000, as Excellent. Twenty-nine percent (29%) say it was good. Nearly as many (23%) feel it was only Fair, and 18% rate it as Poor. These results are based upon the 50% of voters who had heard or seen coverage of the speech last night.

Even nearly a third of Republicans (32%) give the speech good or excellent marks, but Democrats are far more enthusiastic, with 75% feeling that way. However, 39% of Republicans rate the speech Poor versus only five percent (5%) of Democrats. Forty-seven percent (47%) of unaffiliated voters say the speech was good or excellent, while 16% characterize it as Poor.

Here's another tidbit:

But in a survey earlier this week Rasmussen Reports found that 63% of Americans do not believe the visits to Iraq and Afghanistan make Obama more qualified to be President.

I don't think his trip makes him more qualified either. He's not going to get qualified on a trip. He's already qualified. Besides, foreign policy isn't one person dictating. It's a group of advisers forming and shaping.
Gallup says Obama got a boost with his overseas visit.

Obama Leading in Montana

That's a reversal from April.

Rasmussen: Barack Obama is leading John McCain by five percentage points in Montana. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Obama attracting 48% of the vote while McCain earns 43%.
In April, the numbers were reversed with McCain leading 48% to 43%. That was before Obama clinched the Democratic nomination and defeated Hillary Clinton by fifteen points in Montana. Fifty percent (50%) of Montana Democrats want Clinton named as Obama’s running mate. Just 29% of all Montana voters would like to see Clinton as the Vice Presidential nominee.

Obama Leads McCain in Rasmussen Poll

obama has the edge in all the polls out now. obama will only increase that edge as time goes on. that's how obama does.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows what may be the beginning of a bounce for Barack Obama. Obama now attracts 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 40%. That five-point lead for Obama is up from a two-point advantage over the past couple of days. Before that, for much of last week, McCain had enjoyed a slight edge.

When “leaners” are included, Obama now leads 48% to 43%. Leaners are survey respondents who initially do not favor either candidate but indicate their support on a follow-up question (see daily results). One week ago today, McCain had the edge over Obama, 46% to 43%.

Looking To West Virginia and Beyond

montanans make due with an obama cut-out.

in west virginia, obama's chances of winning are like a snowball's in hell. west virginia is like pennsylvania and ohio combined. voting for a black person in west virginia goes against that state's cultural grain. it will go to the republicans in the general election.



but there are people working their tails off on behalf of obama.

the second poll for west virginia is out since march, when hillary's lead was 28. the latest poll shows hillary with a 29 point lead.

west virginia has 26 delegates at stake and its primary is may 13.

obama recently opened offices there.

after west virginia is kentucky and oregon on may 20. kentucky has 47 delegates and oregon has 48. kentucky will likely be like west virgina, pennsylvania and ohio combined. but hopefully obama will score a win in progressive oregon.



they will be followed up by montana and south dakota june 3 and finally, the puerto rico caucus june 7.


then that's all folks. it will be in the hands of the superdelegates, if hillary hasn't exited.
No Way, No How Can Hillary Win
Hillary’s Impossible Chances of Winning
It’s Still Over for Hillary
The Clintons’ Fraud Case
No Way, No How Can McCain Win
The Incredible Shrinking Republicans

New Zogby and Rasmussen Polls

obama is leading in north carolina and has a slight lead (really a tie, 1 point) in indiana. zogby is a fairly reliable poll. it accurately polled pennsylvania.

zogby:
Obama leads in North Carolina by a 46% to 37% margin, with 17% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won 43% support, compared to 42% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.

The telephone surveys, conducted May 1-2, 2008, are the latest of Zogby's two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 627 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 629 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.

In North Carolina, Obama leads in all age groups with one exception - those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied. But Clinton closed the gap in some age groups, compared to yesterday's two-day tracking report.

rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Carolina’s Presidential Primary, conducted Thursday night, finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49% to 40%. Earlier this week, Obama led by fourteen, 51% to 37%. A month ago, Obama led by twenty-three percentage points.

The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.

Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.

Forty percent (40%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.

Overall, 15% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina agree with Wright’s comments about the U.S. That figure includes 22% of Obama voters. Wright himself is viewed favorably by 15% of Likely North Carolina Primary Voters

indiana polls

Latest Indiana and North Carolina Polls

keep in mind, polls are meant to influence as much as measure. for what they're worth, here are the latest polls, which are fluctuating wildly:
North Carolina Democratic Primary
Rasmussen Obama 51, Clinton 37
Obama +14.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary
SurveyUSA Obama 49, Clinton 44
Obama +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
PPP (D) Clinton 50, Obama 42
Clinton +8.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
Howey-Gauge Clinton 45, Obama 47
Obama +2.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Clinton 47
Clinton +1.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Clinton 41
Obama +8.0

Obama's Long Primary Advantage

One of the advantages of this long primary process (fourteen months and counting) has been the opportunity it's provided for us to campaign and organize in all fifty states. In cities and towns across America we've seen record voter registration and participation, with many people finding their way to the political process for the first time. The end result: a radically altered electoral map that gives us the opportunity to compete across the country in November, in swing states and "red states" as well as "blue states."

Once case in point: Colorado.

In 2004, George W. Bush won the state of Colorado by less than 100,000 votes. Last winter, our grassroots supporters in the state spent months organizing, helped out at the end by field staff, multiple offices, and Barack himself. On February 5th Barack won the Colorado caucuses by a overwhelming margin, defeating Hillary Clinton 67% to 32%.

Two and a half months later, a recent Rassmussen poll shows that against Hillary Clinton, John McCain would easily carry the state right now, leading 50% to 36%. But in a head to head match-up, Barack leads McCain 46% to 43%, flipping the state and its nine electoral votes.

It's a pattern that we've seen repeat itself in states like Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Washington, Wisconsin and more.

And our grassroots networks that are still at work, still organizing and still contributing, helping lay the groundwork for the general election against John McCain in November.

obama is set to launch a voter registration drive once he wins the nomination. i'm sure that's no surprise to anyone.:

chicago tribune: Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is planning to unveil a "massive" voter registration drive, one that will reach all 50 states and seeks to boost confidence in him as a potential general election candidate.

A senior campaign official is expected to provide details about the effort in a conference call Friday.

But the candidate himself — or his speechwriters — apparently slipped up and included a reference to the effort in an address to a union group Thursday in Chicago.

"That's why I'm so proud that today our campaign announced a massive volunteer-led voter registration drive in all 50 states to help ensure every single eligible voter takes part in this election so we can take back Washington for the American people," Obama said at the Hyatt Regency McCormick Place.

The appearance came on a day Obama was supposed to be enjoying rare time away from campaigning. Still, it afforded him a chance to spread his message in Indiana without ever setting foot there.

The Pennsylvania Lowdown

the day before and we're swamped with what could be and where things stand.
obama has at least one thing in his favor and that is the approximate 325,000 people who are new democrats or have switched parties to vote. these people haven't been included in polling.
recent polls suggest hillary is gaining.
a new rasmussen poll puts her ahead by 5 percentage points, 49 to 44.
an insider advantage poll puts her ahead by 10 points, 49 to 39, with 12% still undecided. that's a lot of undecideds.
the poll that uses the largest sample of people, about 2,300, puts obama ahead by 3 points, 49 to 46. about 76% of the respondents were white, and the bulk of them were women, and most were in the age range of 35 -65. that's all good for obama.
but as polls go, they're not always reliable and as i stated at the start, there are hundreds of thousands unpolled.

terence samuel says obama will win by a sniggly point because of bob case and obama stands for change:

After all sound and fury, the race in Pennsylvania will come down to the strength of get- out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, and I think Obama's campaign's organizational advantages will be enough to push him past Clinton by almost two percentage points. He's got money, he's got energy and enthusiasm (despite his debate performance on Tuesday), and he's got Philadelphia and its suburbs

Broadly speaking, presidential elections are almost always decided by what and who Americans think best suits the moment. After all the wins and losses, after all the gaffes, the deceptions, and the rare moments of inspiration, Obama, is simply closer to the mood of the country than either Clinton or McCain.

Obama is selling change. Both of his opponents are selling the virtues of experience, but voters, fed up with the way things have been going, view experience as more of a problem than a solution.
.....

The importance of the Casey's endorsement of Obama is hard to overstate. In part that's because Pennsylvania's junior senator is as daring as a piece of Lackawanna anthracite coal and is seen as unwilling or unable to play cynical political games. What's more, he is an able counterbalance to Clinton's two biggest supporters -- the affably pugnacious Gov. Ed. Rendell, and Philadelphia's African American Mayor Michael Nutter.

Casey is also exactly kind of conservative, Catholic, blue-collar Democrat that Obama is supposed to have the most trouble attracting. He needs Casey's help all the more now that some of these voters think that he sees them as clinging to guns and religion out of a sense of economic frustration. In a new ad for Obama, Casey makes the election clearly about the economy, declaring on camera that "in towns like yours and mine, families are struggling with bills they can't afford and jobs moving away. It has to change -- but it won't until we change Washington."

clinton needs blowout numbers, but brace yourselves obama supporters, she may pull off a double digit win, which will give her more time to make us miserable:

bloomerg: After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.

Clinton needs ``blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. ``The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.''

A popular-vote victory is vital to Clinton's chances because she is likely to end the primaries still trailing Obama, 46, in the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

According to an unofficial tally by the Associated Press, Obama currently leads by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 among pledged delegates and those superdelegates -- elected and party officials who get an automatic vote on the nomination -- who have indicated a preference. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination.

One or the Other

``I am a big believer that she needs either one, the popular or the delegate count,'' in order to make a case for why she should be the nominee, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a Clinton backer, said in an interview.

how about those superdelegates? some of them in pennsylvania are feeling sorry they went with clinton so early in the race. listen to that story at npr.

an overview in usa today
video from the philly inquirer on obama's final sunday.
obama goes door to door
obama has two times the cash, less debt than hillary

Rasmussen Poll Shows Obama Gaining

these polls are often worthless, as you can see. this one says obama up, and the new zogby poll shows clinton gaining ground. so, you see, it all depends on what questions were asked, how they were asked and the bias of the pollster.

this one shows obama within 3 points when last week he was within 9 points.

The Democratic Presidential Primary in Pennsylvania is getting even closer. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state shows Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote and Barack Obama with 44%. This election poll was conducted Thursday night, the night following a nationally televised debate between the candidates. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%.

more

Overall, with less than a week to go, 9% of Pennsylvania voters remain undecided, 3% say there’s a good chance they will change their mind, and another 12% might change their mind. Among those who are certain how they will vote, Clinton leads 53% to 47%.

Perhaps the worst news in the survey for Clinton has nothing to do with the race getting closer. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say that the Superdelegates should honor the results of the primaries even if “something happens to convince Superdelegates that Hillary Clinton would have a better chance of beating John McCain.” If Clinton is deemed more electable, just 33% believe that the Superdelegates should select her over Obama. Clinton’s only viable path to the nomination is to convince the Superdelegates that they should vote for her despite Obama’s edge among pledged delegates.

The survey also found that just 21% believe it’s a good idea for the Democrats to have Superdelegates. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree.

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 70% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 71%. Those figures are down slightly for both candidates. An Associated Press video report suggests that Pennsylvania voters are tiring of the campaign. Primary voters see little ideological difference between the candidates—48% see Obama as politically moderate while 49% say the same about Clinton. Nationally, among all voters, a majority see both Democratic candidates as politically liberal.

Forty-eight percent (48%) say they have closely followed news stories about the Wednesday night debate. Another 35% say they have followed that news Somewhat Closely. Twelve percent (12%) say that something in the debate caused them to change their mind about how they will vote.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of the Primary Voters say they are at least Somewhat Likely to vote for Clinton against John McCain in November. Seventy-three percent (73%) are Somewhat or Very Likely to vote for Obama against McCain.

Forty-nine percent (49%) say that, if Obama is nominated, he is Very Likely to be elected President. Another 27% say he is Somewhat Likely to win in November.

Clinton’s numbers are virtually identical—50% say she would be Very Likely to win the White House and 29% say she would be Somewhat Likely to do so.

A separate survey found that both Democrats lead McCain in Pennsylvania. Nationally, McCain currently leads both Democrats in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. Looking at the Electoral College, the race is essentially a Toss-Up.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to release of this poll shows that Clinton is favored to end up victorious in Pennsylvania (current prices: Clinton 83.5% Obama 18.4%). Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

New Rasmussen Poll Leaves Something Out

a new poll by rasmussen says that 56% of people are less likely to vote for obama following the airing of retired pastor jerimiah wright's comments. what the poll didn't tell us is who are these 56%?

are they obama supporters or are they clinton supporters or other?

why is this important? because clinton supporters will use the information as ammunition, while obama supporters realize that there is much more depth to the issue and can separate obama from the pastor.

Most voters, 56%, said Wright’s comments made them less likely to vote for Obama. That figure includes 44% of Democrats. Just 11% of voters say they are more likely to vote for Obama because of Wright’s comments.

However, among African-Americans, 29% said Wright’s comments made them more likely to support Obama. Just 18% said the opposite while 50% said Wright’s comments would have no impact.

Overall, voters are evenly divided as to whether Obama should resign his membership in the Church—42% say that he should while 40% disagree. White voters, by a 46% to 33% margin, say that Obama should leave the Church. African-American voters, by a 68% to 16% margin, say he should not. Wright retired last month as Pastor of the Church.

here's an analysis by poblano at dailykos that leaves nothing out.

Obama's Church Stands Up
Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy

Clinton Must Win Pennsylvania