Obama's Counter Terror Hawaiian Vacation

Obama may be in Hawaii, but he and his beefed up traveling team are on ramped up counterterrorism duty:

Against that backdrop, the White House has made substantive and public relations changes to Mr. Obama’s vacation, adopting what Juan C. Zarate, a counterterrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, calls a strategy of “taking no chances and assuming the worst.”

It was no accident that Mr. Brennan called President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen on Christmas Eve; intelligence experts believe the man accused in the bomb plot last Christmas, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, trained in Yemen and obtained explosives there. The White House said Mr. Brennan reminded Mr. Saleh of “the importance of taking forceful action” against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, the militant Islamist network. Read the whole thing at NYT

Yemen's Fight Against Al Qaeda

Let's Break Down Rudy's Lies With a Timeline

I usually ignore this stuff because it gets monotonous after a while. I'm sick to death of republicans because they've politicized national security. But let's break down Rudy Giuliani's blatant lies, shall we?

Obama did not wait 10 days to respond.

The day of the failed attack, Dec. 25, Obama ordered tighter security.

Dec. 28, Obama spoke to the press.

Dec. 29, Obama gave an update.

Dec. 31, Obama receives preliminary report.

Jan. 1, Obama speaks on fighting Al Qaeda.

Jan. 5, Obama meets with intel, speaks on counterterrorism reforms.

Jan. 7, Obama speaks on the security report. Here are the corrective actions.

What's worse about this video is Larry King doesn't even know enough to counter Rudy, who's speaking from another orifice.

Obama Speaks on Security Report Jan. 7

Read the report and the fixes here.

Transcript of Obama's remarks here.

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John Brennan and Janet Napolitano speak:

Obama To Speak on Security Review Summary Jan. 7

Update: See Obama's remarks here.

Live stream. Up next Janet Napolitano.

JOIN THE LIVE CHAT

VISIT WHITEHOUSE.GOV

Update: Obama's remarks have been postponed until 4:30 pm.

Obama has a lot of meetings today, including one with Bill Clinton, and at 3 pm eastern, he will speak about the unclassified security review on the failed underwear bomb plot. Obama's remarks will be live streamed at WhiteHouse.gov. I'll post video later. Janet Napolitano will speak at the daily press briefing, which will be live streamed at 3:45 pm at WhiteHouse.gov. More information is trickling out, including the fact that the CIA discovered who the bomber was while he was on the plane. Apparently, the report will be shocking.

White House national security adviser James Jones says Americans will feel "a certain shock" when they read an account being released Thursday of the missed clues that could have prevented the alleged Christmas Day bomber from ever boarding the plane.
President Obama "is legitimately and correctly alarmed that things that were available, bits of information that were available, patterns of behavior that were available, were not acted on," Jones said in an interview Wednesday with USA TODAY. Read more.

CIA Triple Agent Illustrates Intelligence Disarray

More than anything, the intelligence community appears to need a Martha Stewart type person to organize and coordinate. Seriously.
Bruce Riedel of the Brookings Institute says that person should be Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair. You think?
Obama inherited an intelligence mess, Riedel says. Another thing Obama has to clean up. Riedel also says the person who killed the seven CIA agents wasn't a double agent, rather a triple agent. The triple agent bated the CIA saying he had information on a high level Al Qaeda official, which is why all the high level CIA agents were in one place. Did they really need seven CIA agents to receive the information?

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How Dennis Montgomery allegedly conned the CIA and the Bush Administration:

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Obama's Speech on Counterterror Reforms Jan. 5 Video

Update Jan. 7: See Obama's remarks on the newly released security report here.

Following his meeting on the failed underwear bomb plot with intelligence and security officials and others, Obama said the intelligence was there but people failed to connect the dots. "This was not a failure to collect the intelligence," he said.

He didn't bluster. He gave it to us straight. "The system has failed in a potentially disastrous way." He said he's going to fix what went wrong.

He said a preliminary summary report will be made public in the next few days. He said he expects intelligence and security agencies to get it together and do it quickly.

No New Detainees to Yemen But Gitmo Still to Close

Gibbs says detainees at Guantanamo Bay will not go to Yemen for the time being: "While we remain committed to closing the facility ... we will not move additional people into Yemen right now," he says. Politico

Meanwhile, the U.S. embassy in Yemen has reopened.

Tom Ridge on Counterterror Reforms

Tom Ridge, the first Homeland Security Secretary, talks about reforms that could be made. He says the GOP criticism that Obama isn't being tough on terrorism is bogus. Obama will speak at 4 pm today:

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Obama's Schedule Jan. 5

Following a meeting with intelligence officials, cabinet members and others (see the list), Obama will speak at 4 pm eastern today. His remarks, which will outline counterterrorism reforms, will be live streamed at WhiteHouse.gov and probably cnn.com and msnbc.com. Update-Live stream:

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Yemen and Somali Neglected to Occupy Iraq and Afghanistan

Two Al Qaeda leaders in Yemen killed today. Richard Engel reports that the person who killed seven CIA workers was a double agent. Engel also says places such as Yemen and Somalia have been neglected because we have spent the last decade trying to occupy Iraq and Afghanistan. $1 trillion has been spent on rebuilding those two countries. The single largest mistake of the past decade, in my mind, was the invasion of Iraq. That set off a chain of events and none of them good.

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Clarke Says Terrorists Blow up Planes for Publicity

Former Bush-Clinton counterterrorism chief Richard Clarke says Obama is doing a better job combatting terrorism in his first year than other presidents: "This is an administration in its first year in office and it's responding in a way that frankly other administrations during their first year would not be able to do."
No matter how good the software is, there are human mistakes in the loop, he said.
Terrorists like to blow up airplanes for the publicity, Clarke says.

Obama Wants Details on Afghanistan Exit Strategy

As NPR's Mary Louise Kelly reports, the president " is pushing his national security team for more detail about an exit strategy for U.S. forces fighting in Afghanistan." Administration officials tell her that during a 2 1/2 meeting yesterday with his top advisers, the president "pushed his team for more detail about an exit strategy for U.S. forces. They said he wants to make clear to the Afghan government that the U.S. commitment is not open-ended." NPR

John Dickerson revives the "dithering" comment or shall we call it "dickering" after Dick Cheney. This is probably the first time the military leadership hasn't had a blank check from the American people to do whatever they want.
Invade a country? Sure, here's a few billion. No exit strategy? That's okay. We'll just tell the American people you can't put a timetable on these things.
Colin Powell has advised Obama to take his time, to ignore politics of the left and right, and get this decision right.

The four troop options:

-- "The low option": Adding 10,000 troops, all of them to train Afghan forces.

-- "The hybrid": 15,000 to 20,000 additional troops who would focus on counterterrorism.

-- The mix of 35,000 Americans and about 5,000 from NATO forces.

-- An increase of 40,000; all of them Americans. NPR

Obama Considering a Counterterrorism Counterinsurgency Blend

Obama at the Naval Air Station Jacksonville

The Washington Post expects Obama to announce his decision around Nov. 20. I know he's intent on not rushing, but I'm thinking the announcement will come before that, despite Obama's travels to Asia starting Nov. 11:

President Obama has asked the Pentagon's top generals to provide him with more options for troop levels in Afghanistan, two U.S. officials said late Friday, with one adding that some of the alternatives would allow Obama to send fewer new troops than the roughly 40,000 requested by his top commander.

Obama met with the Joint Chiefs of Staff at the White House on Friday, holding a 90-minute discussion that centered on the strain on the force after eight years of war in two countries. The meeting -- the first of its kind with the chiefs of the Navy, Army, Marine Corps and Air Force, who were not part of the president's war council meetings on Afghanistan in recent weeks -- prompted Obama to request another such meeting before he announces a decision on sending additional troops, the officials said. WaPo

Counterinsurgency (John McCain's preference) or counterterrorism (Biden's recommendation)?

Obama is expected to receive several options from the Pentagon about troop levels next week, according to the two officials, who discussed the deliberations on the condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

Before he can determine troop levels, his advisers have said, he must decide whether to embrace a strategy focused heavily on counterinsurgency, which would require additional forces to protect population centers, or one that makes counterterrorism the main focus of U.S. efforts in the country, which would rely on relatively fewer American troops.

One option under review involves a blend of the two approaches, featuring an emphasis on counterterrorism in the north and some parts of western Afghanistan as well as an expanded counterinsurgency effort in the south and east, one of the officials said. Obama has also asked for a province-by-province review of the country to determine which areas can by managed effectively by local leaders.

The president appears committed to adding at least 10,000 to 15,000 troops in Afghanistan in an effort to bolster the training of Afghan army and police officers in the country. Current plans call for the United States to double the size of the Afghan army and police forces to about 400,000 in the hope that they can take over security responsibilities. WaPo

The Mighty Joe Biden

In the beginning, many people questioned Joe Biden's value as vice president.
They laughed and joked, calling Biden the gaffe maker. He took it well and, indeed, made a few gaffes. For a while, Joe seemed to be defending his job as a confidant and advice giver.
But Joe has proven to be a worthy veep.
He works behind the scenes with barely any media coverage. He's the good version of Cheney. Instead of moving behind the scenes figuring out how to torture people, Joe does good stuff and goes on important trips. He's been all over the globe and he's been all over the nation announcing stimulus funds, comforting people in his way and schmoozing with the firemen, police officers and union people. Above all, Joe is a good man.
And if Obama chooses Biden's strategy for Afghanistan-Pakistan, it will say a lot about Biden's unrecognized might and the bond between Obama and Biden.
Newsweek says, as other media have said in the past, that Joe is valued less for his advice and more for his ability to stir things up (I'd argue that's Joe's approach to influencing the conversation):

Across the board, Biden's real value to the president is not really his specific advice. It's his ability to stir things up. Senior government officials who have participated in small meetings with the president and vice president have noticed Obama and Biden engaged in a duet. "The president will lean over, and they will quietly talk to each other. Biden will then question someone, make comments, and the president just leans back and seems to be taking it all in before he speaks," Attorney General Eric Holder tells NEWSWEEK. Ron Klain, Biden's chief of staff, describes the interaction like this: "President Obama is one of the world's greatest listeners; you can't tell what he is thinking. He's able to watch the VP ask tough questions and doesn't have to do that himself. [In that way] he doesn't have to reveal what he's thinking. That's very valuable." Newsweek

Newsweek leads with this example:

Joe Biden had a question. During a long Sunday meeting with President Obama and top national-security advisers on Sept. 13, the VP interjected, "Can I just clarify a factual point? How much will we spend this year on Afghanistan?" Someone provided the figure: $65 billion. "And how much will we spend on Pakistan?" Another figure was supplied: $2.25 billion. "Well, by my calculations that's a 30-to-1 ratio in favor of Afghanistan. So I have a question. Al Qaeda is almost all in Pakistan, and Pakistan has nuclear weapons. And yet for every dollar we're spending in Pakistan, we're spending $30 in Afghanistan. Does that make strategic sense?" The White House Situation Room fell silent. But the questions had their desired effect: those gathered began putting more thought into Pakistan as the key theater in the region.

Newsweek might call that stirring the pot but Biden has been long advocating a Pakistan strategy:

The four part plan he laid out included large, unconditional financial support for non-security projects such as schools, roads, clinics, etc; conditioning of security aid on performance; support for judicial, political, and good government reforms; and finally and increase in public diplomacy and high impact support.

Sen. Biden first correctly linked the current instability to the administration's poor management and near desertion of Afghanistan by early 2002. He downplayed the notion that the rise of terrorism resulted from the absence of a fully functioning liberal democracy in Pakistan, instead arguing that Musharraf saw the U.S. packing up its bags in Afghanistan soon after the invasion (in preparation for Iraq) and responded by hedging against the U.S. departure and cutting other "Faustian bargains." Pakistan had experience being burned by the U.S. in the past. They were left holding the bag and contending with unmanageable militants when the U.S. -- after partnering with Pakistan to foster and back the mujahedeen in the late 80s to counter the Soviet threat -- promptly departed.

A second assessment the senator made concerned the failure of the U.S. to extend engagement to the Pakistani moderate majority. While Musharraf is conveniently being treated as the fall guy who snuffed out democracy in his country, it's important to remember that the U.S. abetted this trend by raising expectations by declaring democracy was on the march and then failing to broaden its engagement in Pakistan and Afghanistan (as they both shared the territory that formed the hotbed of terrorism). This was a result of our policy to deal with al Qaeda on the cheap -- to simply fund the Pakistani military to kill terrorists rather than invest in altering the structures that gave rise to terrorism. A Musharraf policy rather than a Pakistan policy derived from limited U.S. interest and attention span. WN

Newsweek also notes that Biden is incorrectly labeled a "dove:"

Biden has been incorrectly characterized as a dove who wants to pull out of Afghanistan. In fact, according to his "Counterterrorism-Plus" paper, he wants to maintain a large troop presence. He also favors a greater emphasis on training Afghan troops—and defending Kabul and Kandahar—than on chasing the Taliban around the countryside, and he wants more diplomatic efforts to try to peel away those Taliban who can be bought with money or other inducements (like political power). He is leery of massive attempts at nation building and more hopeful that the United States can work with local warlords than with the corrupt and inept central government in Kabul. On a grander strategic level, he wants to tilt the administration's efforts more toward Pakistan (to "make the problem PakAf, not AfPak"), reasoning that Al Qaeda—the real threat to the United States—is hiding out not in Afghanistan but in nuclear-armed -Pakistan. Read the whole Newsweek story here

Obama Speaks at National Counterterrorism Center Oct. 6

Updated Oct. 6 with speech:

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Obama will speak at 11:40 am eastern at the National Counterterrorism Center in D.C., according to Robert Gibbs. The speech is likely to be live streamed at cnn.com, msnbc.com or whitehouse.gov. Later, Obama will update Congressmembers on Afghanistan (see who's on the list)
Wednesday, Oct. 7, Obama will award the National Medal of Science and the National Medal of Technology and Innovation to a number of people. Later, Obama meets with his national security team. In the evening, Obama will mix it up with middle grade students, teachers and scientists at the White House.

On Saturday, Oct. 10, Obama will speak at Human Rights Campaign national dinner:

The Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender civil rights organization, announced today that President Barack Obama will deliver the keynote address at the 13th Annual National Dinner on Saturday, October 10th, in Washington, D.C. U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy will also present the first-ever Edward M. Kennedy National Leadership Award to Judy and Dennis Shepard. The award is named in honor of the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy (D-MA), a champion in the fight for LGBT equality.

“We are honored to share this night with President Obama, who has called upon our nation to embrace LGBT people as brothers and sisters,” said Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solmonese. “It is fitting that he will speak to our community on the night that we pay tribute to his friend and mentor Senator Edward Kennedy, who knew that as president, Barack Obama would take on the unfinished business of this nation – equal rights for the LGBT community, and for every person who believes in liberty and justice for all.”

Today's press briefing:

Gates: Now is Not the Time to Leave Afghanistan

We are now only beginning to have everything in place to implement the strategy, says Robert Gates: