1) He chooses a national security powerhouse as vice president.
2) The younger people, who say they are going to vote for Obama, actually do.
Normally, a vice president doesn't matter much but this isn't a normal election. Obama has huge obstacles, battling the republican hate machine and confronting the ongoing undermining by the Clintons and the Clinton democrats.
I used to think Obama would win in a landslide. Now I think, if Obama wins, it will be a major feat, a remarkable win.
Obama can't choose Tim Kaine as his vice president. Obama is perceived as weak on national security because he lacks military experience.
That perception is compounded by the fact that for the past 7 years, Americans have been led to be fearful, and to many, McCain looks like a guy that can run down an enemy. Saddleback further proved McCain's emotional readiness.
I could see McCain personally executing Osama bin Laden. He's also just as likely to hunt down new enemies and goad others into being enemies. He's an old line thinker.
We have become a nation transfixed on nothing else but the enemy.
If Obama is able to align himself with a vice president perceived to chop an enemy to little bits, then more people would feel comfortable voting for him. In my short history of writing about politics, it's apparent that it's all about perceptions. It's all about the sound bite, too. People don't want to hear shades of an issue. It's perceived as weakness. They want yes or no. The media too.
Younger people will have to come out in force to balance the older folks, many of whom just don't get Obama or have prejudices. No amount of show and tell would help change the minds of these older voters. Many of the older folks still equate patriotism with military. They don't see patriotism in any other way and the republican hate machine has already gotten to most of these voters.
When people go to the polls in November, they won't be voting on economics, even though they complain about the price of milk and gas. They'll vote on safety and security. It's been a rough 7 years.
By November, we will have had another terrorist threat, a strengthening Russia, or maybe North Korea or some other country will throw itself into the stew. It's a volatile world and the Bush administration hasn't helped ease tensions anywhere in the world.
Many older Americans want to feel safe first and foremost. They are the ones who reliably vote. But they want to hear tough talk and war for them is patriotic. They like talk of war. It makes them feel proud.
Younger Americans want to feel safe as well but they view safety differently. They understand that national security hinges on diplomatic relations, negotiating with other countries and leading by example. War is a last resort.
There is one other thing that could trip up Obama and that's if racism is more rampant than it appears. I'm not ready to go there yet.
