CNN Quick Vote: Obama Wins

Who are you rooting for in Tuesday's contests? let's hope this plays out.
Clinton 30% 34317
Huckabee 9% 10256
McCain 16% 18438
Obama 45% 50809
Total Votes: 113820

fun with delegate math

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Up to date delegate tracker

Obama’s message
road to change, texas

what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced

Survey: Obama Wins Younger Voters

this from the washington post:

Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) emerged as the leading candidate among 128 young people surveyed online by American University last month.

The junior senator from Illinois received 71 percent of the vote among those who had voted or were planning to vote in a Democratic primary, while Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y) received 12 percent of their primary votes. Among Republican primary voters surveyed, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) received 41 percent of their votes, followed by Rep. Ron Paul (R-Tex.), a favorite among some young people, who garnered 18 percent of the respondents' votes; former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney trailed with 15 percent and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee drew 10 percent of the respondents' votes.

When young voters in the survey were asked to volunteer the name the candidate they would vote for if the presidential election were held today, Obama came in first, with 54 percent of the respondents choosing him. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) came in second place, with 19 percent of the respondents selecting him as their presidential candidate of choice. Approximately 10 percent of the respondents chose Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-N.Y.) as their presidential candidate. Reflecting national trends so far in voting by young people in primaries, Obama was the choice of both young men and young women in the AU online interviews, despite the fact that several of those surveyed said they admire Clinton as the first woman who could be elected president. read the rest

the bigger story on the youth vote.
obama talks about the power of youth

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Everything barack obama
Blueprint for change

Obama’s message
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Obama’s mathematical delegate lead

Michelle: You Don't Cut Your Enemies into Pieces

because you might have to work with them.
michelle obama. she gets it. she really gets it.
she made the strongest case i've heard yet at the texas rally today. she covered the gamet, childcare, college, seniors, taking care of the returning troops, stagnant incomes, barack....
this is a must-see rally. i'll post it when it comes out.
the latest on the texas two-step

Vote of Confidence from Obama Camp

do the delegate math yourself.
i did a scenario favoring clinton and clinton still wasn't ahead.
here's what i entered: in ohio, clinton gets 103 delegates; obama 38 (unrealistic)
in texas, clinton gets 107 and obama 86, in rhode island, clinton gets 18, obama 3 and vermont obama, 9; clinton, 6, (vermont is clearly obama country) that leaves the score: 1505 obama, 1501 clinton. may the math be with us.

reality check from obama campaign manager david plouffe:

Clinton Chief Strategist Mark Penn: “After March 4th, over 3000 delegates will be committed, and we project that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will be virtually tied with 611 delegates still to be chosen in Pennsylvania and other remaining states. Again and again, this race has shown that it is voters and delegates who matter, not the pundits or perceived ‘momentum.’” [Mark Penn memo, 2/13/08]

Clinton aide Guy Cecil: "We think that at the end of the day on March 4 we will be within 25 delegates.” [Politico, 2/13/08]

Howard Wolfson: “I Think We Will Be Ahead In The Delegate Race After Texas And Ohio.” [Clinton campaign conference call, 2/11/08]

New York Times: “Clinton advisers have said Mrs. Clinton must win the Texas and Ohio primaries by at least 10 percentage points if she has any hope of catching up with Mr. Obama in the delegate count, particularly because he has shown momentum recently at picking up support from elected officials who count as superdelegates.” [NYT, 2/22/08]

-------------------------------------------

By their own clear definition of where they expected and believed they needed to be after Ohio and Texas, the Clinton campaign will fall terribly short on March 4th. The Obama pledged delegate lead stands at 162. The question for the Clinton campaign if they do not significantly erode that lead on Tuesday is what plausible path they have to even up the pledged delegates in the remaining contests.

There are 611 pledged delegates left after March 4th’s contests. They would need to win at least 62% of all remaining pledged delegates to get back to even. And while they have often talked about Pennsylvania – where public polls show their lead deteriorating rapidly – the Wyoming caucuses on March 8th and Mississippi primary or March 11th could potentially result in more pledged delegates netted to the winner than on March 4th.

So it is clear that narrow popular vote wins in Texas and Ohio will do very little to improve their nearly impossible path to the nomination. If they do not win Texas and Ohio by healthy double digit margins – and they led by healthy double digit margins as recently as two weeks ago - they will be facing almost impossible odds to reverse the delegate math.

While the Clintons gamely continue to try to move the goal posts, at some point there has to be a reckoning. It is a very simple question – what is their path to secure the nomination? No amount of spin can change the math. We look forward to their tortured answers on Wednesday morning.

The Clinton campaign has insisted that this is a race about delegates. And we agree. The tale of March 4th is not who wins what states but where the delegate battle stands after all the delegate yield for all four of these contests have been allocated.

Superdelegate Add Ons Obama 38 Clinton -6

here's the delegate count, according to msnbc: obama= 1194 clinton =1037
superdelegates obama = 208 clinton = 254
the lowdown: since super tuesday, obama gained 38 supers, clinton lost 6.
Up to date delegate tracker
if she loses either, she's out. if she wins ohio, texas, she's in the game. but she would have to get 70% of the vote in each of the remaining states, mathematically speaking, to pass obama. the next big state voting is pennsylvania on april 22. clinton being urged to drop out if she doesn't win both texas and ohio. she's a worthy candidate but just isn't connecting. to be a leader is to connect.
on "meet the press," one of the talking heads said clinton is like the beach boys when the beatles came to town. they talked about the phone ad. apparently, the red phone ringing in the middle of the night ad that clinton used is old stuff. it was used by walter mondale, and george bush the first.


as much as the talking heads chattered about the pros and cons of each candidate, it doesn't appear that anyone quite gets obama yet.
Obama’s message
Obama's legislative accomplishments
Obama’s mathematical delegate lead
what are presidential qualities?

Barack and Michelle Obama Rally in Houston Today

this event should be streamed at cnn.com
Stand for Change Rally with Barack and Michelle Obama
George R. Brown Convention Center
Hall B3
1001 Avenida de las Americas
Houston, TX 77010

Monday, March 3, 2008
Doors Open: 8:00 p.m.

The event will be free and open to the public. However, space is limited and a ticket is required. Space is available on a first-come, first-served basis.

For security reasons, do not bring bags. Please limit personal belongings. No signs or banners permitted.
waiting list for tickets

Up to date delegate tracker

Obama newspaper endorsements
Obama artwork
Yes We Can Lyrics


Upcoming primary and caucus schedule
Everything barack obama
Blueprint for change

Obama’s message
Obama's legislative accomplishments
Obama’s mathematical delegate lead
what are presidential qualities?

Memo To Ohio

ohio, you are important in this election.
i just watched the 60 minutes segment and some ohio voters expressed concern that obama is muslim, that he isn't patriotic.
you've been getting information that isn't true.
obama has been going to the same church for 20 years. he is a christian. he's a family man with strong values. please get informed. don't let hateful people convince you of something that isn't true.
here are the facts on obama's religion.
here are the facts on obama's patriotism. here is a letter from three generals acknowledging his patriotism.
obama can help make this nation much better than it is.
as far as not voting for a black man, well, there's not a lot to say there, except that if you can try to open your mind, you might see better. so if you are leaning at all toward obama, don't let rumors and lies stop you from voting for obama.
vote well ohio.
road to change in ohio video

Lisa Ling Supporting Obama

world journalist lisa ling has been making calls for obama. i respect her work. lisa, who considers herself a foreign policy wonk, says over the last five years the u.s. has engendered a lot of ill will in the world.
she was elated and surprised when she first heard obama say he wanted to talk to u.s. adversaries.

Republican Picks for Obama's Cabinet

this is from the times UK, an enlightening story that covers a lot of ground. it seems european journalists write with much more candor. obama will likely choose some republicans for his candidate, sticking to his promise of nonpartisianship.

Obama is taking nothing for granted in his quest to become America’s first black president. “Remember New Hampshire!” he said, recalling the primary upset that restored Clinton’s status as the frontrunner after her initial shock defeat in Iowa.

Earlier Obama had told the audience at a suburban high school rally in Dallas, Texas, that he intended to follow the example of his hero, President Abraham Lincoln, and appoint a cabinet of the talents, irrespective of party labels.

here's another excerpt on who he might appoint:

AS Barack Obama enters the final stages of the fight for the Democratic presidential nomination, he is preparing to detach the core voters of John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, with the same ruthless determination with which he has peeled off Hillary Clinton’s supporters.

The scene is set for a tussle between the two candidates for the support of some of the sharpest and most independent minds in politics. Obama is hoping to appoint cross-party figures to his cabinet such as Chuck Hagel, the Republican senator for Nebraska and an opponent of the Iraq war, and Richard Lugar, leader of the Republicans on the Senate foreign relations committee.

Senior advisers confirmed that Hagel, a highly decorated Vietnam war veteran and one of McCain’s closest friends in the Senate, was considered an ideal candidate for defence secretary. Some regard the outspoken Republican as a possible vice-presidential nominee although that might be regarded as a “stretch”.

Asked about his choice of cabinet last week, Obama told The Sunday Times: “Chuck Hagel is a great friend of mine and I respect him very much,” although he was wary of appearing as though he was already choosing the White House curtains. But after winning 11 primary contests in a row after Super Tuesday, he is ready to elbow Clinton off the stage.

One Voice Video

mashup by lightbolt.net

Obama’s message

Translators for US Can't Get Visas

there are only 551 of these translators, people who made up for the lack of US personnel able to speak the language in afghanistan and iraq, people who risked their lives to translate for the US military. now they can't get visas because the quota has been met. how despicable is this. we need someone else in office and we need them fast.
sen. kennedy sponsored a bill to up the number of visas but, you know, the bush administration is slow and inefficient. here's a solution, just assign one team to do all the paperwork, give them a week. job done. it's a matter of priorities. i'd say these people deserve quick service, especially when their lives are in danger in their homelands.

By Walter Pincus
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, February 29, 2008; Page A10

The State Department has stopped processing the applications of 551 Iraqi and Afghan translators seeking special visas to come to the United States, because the current legal quota of 500 visas for the program this year is about to be reached, according to department officials.

The applicants, all of whom have worked for U.S. military forces, received an e-mail notice from the State Department's National Visa Center last week. "We have temporarily stopped processing cases," the message said, adding that "the applicant should NOT make any travel arrangements, sell property or give up employment until the US Embassy or Consulate General has issued a visa."

The halt is the latest obstacle for many of the several thousand translators who have worked for U.S. military units in Iraq and Afghanistan, risking their lives and leaving their families vulnerable to retaliation from insurgents who see them as accomplices of American troops. More than 250 interpreters working for U.S. forces or their contractors have been killed in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003. Many American service members have worked to help their former translators gain a visa to come to the United States under a 2006 congressional program initially designed to admit 50 translators per year, a quota later increased to 500. read the rest

Ohio Delegate Calculator For Fun

the buckeye state blog has this fun little calculator, which gives you an idea of just how big clinton needs to win to gain on obama.
if clinton gets 60% and obama 40%, clinton will only have 9 delegates more.
the delegate count: Obama 1187 delegates; 193 supers; total 1380.
Clinton 1035 delegates; 240 supers; 1275 total.

opinion piece in today's providence journal. note, that he hit the nail on the head in the first two paragraphs. obama gets it, which is half the battle.

By Barack Obama:

MOST AMERICANS have simple dreams. A job that can support a family. Health care we can count on and afford. A retirement that is dignified and secure. Education and opportunity for our kids.

But today, the price of the American dream is going up.

All across the country, Americans are working harder for less. We’ve never paid more for health care or for college. It’s harder to save, and it’s harder to retire. There are things we need to do right now to give our economy a boost, but a short-term stimulus is not enough. We have to put the American dream on a firmer foundation.

That’s going to take a change in the way Washington works. It’s time to stop giving tax breaks to companies that ship jobs overseas, and to put a tax cut in the pocket of middle class Americans. That’s why I’ve proposed a “Making Work Pay” tax credit of up to $500 for American workers, and $1,000 for working families, as well as an additional tax credit for struggling homeowners. This will cut taxes for 150 million Americans, give our economy a boost, and put fairness back into our tax code.

We also need to protect a secure retirement by easing the burden on America’s seniors. That’s why I’ll eliminate income taxes for any senior making less than $50,000. And I’ll change our bankruptcy laws to protect workers’ pensions instead of protecting banks. Because I believe that if you work hard and pay into the system, you’ve earned the right to a secure retirement.

It’s also time to stop talking about the outrage of 47 million Americans without health care, and to start doing something about it. I expanded health care in Illinois by bringing Democrats and Republicans together. We took on the insurance industry, and provided health care to hundreds of thousands of families. And as president, I’ll cut a typical family’s premiums by up to $2,500, and make health care affordable and accessible for all Americans.

We also have to be clear that the American dream must never come at the expense of the American family. But even as politicians in Washington talk about family values, we haven’t had policies that value families. As the son of a single mother, I don’t accept an America that forces women to choose between their kids and their careers. That’s why I’ll expand the Family and Medical Leave Act to cover millions of additional Americans. We need to make sure you can take leave to care for elderly parents, and to join school activities with your kids.

We also need to expand paid leave. Today, 78 percent of workers covered by the Family and Medical Leave Act don’t take leave because it isn’t paid. And this has a far greater impact on families with less income and less savings. To make sure our system is fair, I will press states to adopt paid-leave systems, and set aside $1.5 billion to fund the start-up costs and help states offset the costs to employers. And I’ll require employers to provide all of their workers with seven paid sick days a year, because you shouldn’t be punished for being sick.

Finally, we have a responsibility to make sure that our young people can reach a little further and rise a little higher than we did. But too many Americans are weighted down by student loans. I know because Michelle and I just finished paying off our loans a few years ago. It’s time to put a college education within reach of every American. That’s why I’ll create a new and fully refundable annual tax credit worth $4,000 for tuition and fees. To receive this credit, we’ll require 100 hours of public service. Because it’s time to call upon our young people to serve our country; in return, we’ll invest in their future.

We’ve recently been reminded that when some folks hurt in our economy, all of us hurt. When things are going bad on Main Street, that catches up with Wall Street. And that’s how it should be. Because what binds us together, what makes us one American family, is that we have to stand up and fight for each other’s dreams. It’s time to reaffirm that fundamental belief — I am my brother’s keeper, I am my sister’s keeper — through our politics, our policies and in our daily lives. It’s time to reclaim the American dream.
Obama’s message
Obama's legislative accomplishments
Obama’s mathematical delegate lead
what are presidential qualities?

Obama in Rhode Island Video

obama talks about taking power away from lobbyists, reforming bandruptcy laws and national security.

Marching to Vote in Ohio

awesome video of columbus, ohio obama supporters marching off to vote

obama makes surprise appearance at sombrero fest in texas

We Are The Ones Video

another will.i.am video. warning, it's celeb packed. but first, this:

Every urinal in the men's rooms at Verizon amphitheater was outfitted with a door hanger that not only urged support for Obama, but had an explanation of the "Texas two-step" voting procedure -- how those who really want to make a difference on Tuesday first should cast a primary ballot, then show up for local caucuses.

John McCain's War

i can appreciate mccain's no nonsense attitude but there is no doubt, mccain's mindset for the future of the u.s. is war.

he's definitely old school. he wouldn't be open to any new ideas.

there wouldn't be any talking to adversaries. it would just be more of the same warring around while the bridges come falling down in the u.s. we really need a change of vision. what is mccain's?

but mind you, war or playing on american's fear of terrorists will be the crux of mccain's campaign. essentially his platform will be the message from clinton's recent ad: that we will not be safe under an obama administration.

i feel safe in knowing that obama won't work to rile up adversaries. he won't be calling them names and he'll have a more respectful tone. the u.s. has to now be a part of the world, not just the big guy on the block. obama's belief that we lead by example, is the best idea i've heard. i believe that obama will be tough when he needs to be. bush is like the big bully on the playground. the world is tired of that. we are too.

let me also point out, 23 million democrats have voted so far, vs. 14.5 million republicans. so, they got a lot of work to do.

the following are excerpts from a story by juan cole at history news network:

I mean, how great can the situation in Iraq be when our NATO ally has invaded the country we militarily occupy in order to kill guerrillas harbored by our Iraqi Kurdish allies, who have been slipping across the border for which we are responsible in order to kill dozens of NATO troops in eastern Anatolia?

here's more:

McCain, who voted to go into Iraq and said it was "important" to do so, does not seem to have noticed that the price tag for it and Afghanistan is rapidly rising to $3 trillion to $5 trillion over the long term, or $10,000 for each man, woman and child in America. For a family of four, that is $40,000 or a whole year's salary that George W. Bush has stolen from us and given to his friends at Halliburton, Hunt Oil, Exxon Mobile, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, General Electric, etc., etc., etc. (See Tom Engelhardt on this and other morsels in Bush's Mulligatawny Soup of a war). Not to mention the nearly 4,000 killed in action and the thousands seriously wounded, with brain trauma, spinal injuries, confined to wheel chairs or forever impaired, who will need to be taken care of the rest of their lives (and guess to which address the bill will come-- not Crawford, Texas.) Is the war really unrelated to the growing bad times in the US economy?

Bush's loathsome toadies actually come out and say that all this spending of our blood and treasure is the price of security. But Iraq did not attack the US and was no danger to the US, and the Iraq War is actually actively producing a terrorist danger to our security, according to veteran CIA official and now security analyst Marc Sageman. All this is not to mention the invidious way the Bush administration has framed the terrorism issue, as Noam Chomsky points out at Tomdispatch.

Back to McCain: Running on the efficiency and effectiveness of the failed state in Baghdad would be an extremely risky strategy if in fact the US corporate media were telling the American people the truth (or even just anything) about what is actually going on in Iraq and Iraqi politics. So here is a fact check on two of the claims McCain is making about supposed political progress in Iraq. He has been touting a new law on the treatment of ex-Baathists (who are mostly Sunni and have been treated harshly, contributing to the violence). And he has been ecstatic about the passing of a law on the provinces and some other measures, like the budget. But is any of these laws really likely to lead to ethnic reconciliation?

In his recent response to a measure introduced by Senator Russ Feingold aimed at ending the Iraq War, John McCain ridiculed Iraq War critics who doubted the surge and doubted provincial reconciliation (as at al-Anbar):


"In the face of these new facts, supporters of withdrawal changed their argument yet again. Maybe the surge had brought about greater security, they said . . . But this was irrelevant, they said, so long as national level political reconciliation is lacking – and since we can never expect that, the troops must leave. Yet they were wrong again. In January, the Iraqi parliament passed the long-awaited de-Baathification law that restores the eligibility of thousands of former party members for government jobs lost because of their Baathist affiliation."

the so-called surge is "working" but not really. there hasn't been political success in iraq. it's just blood and guts:

McCain argues that violence is down in 17 of 18 provinces. That argument itself suggests the irrelevancy of the US to Iraq. There are no US troops to speak of in the 3 northern Kurdish provinces, or in the southern 4 provinces from which the British have largely withdrawn. There are few US troops in most of the 8 provinces where Shiites predominate. There was no troop escalation or "surge" in the Sunni al-Anbar province. So if violence has declined in 17 of 18 provinces, US policy cannot possibly have anything to do with most of that. General Petraeus has had significant successes in Baghdad, though at the unfortunate (an unintentional) cost of further turning it into a Shiite city from which most Sunnis have been ethnically cleansed. But Petraeus is doing the practical work of trying to make a bad situation better, and makes no claims for success in the political realm in Iraq. McCain is, in contrast, just doing US domestic politics with those hard won achievements of our suffering troops, and is mostly just running on pie in the sky.

Indie Band Arcade Fire Plays for Obama

arcade fire will play tomorrow at the opera house in ohio. tickets are gone already. maybe it will be streamed at cnn.com
from the post in ohio:

The band Arcade Fire will perform a free concert Sunday, March 2 at Stuart's Opera House in Nelsonville to promote the Barack Obama campaign.

Doors for the event will open at 6:30 p.m., said Chris Farrell, regional director of the Obama campaign in Southeast Ohio.

The show is open to the public and slated to begin at 7 p.m. The campaign will give out 250 VIP tickets, distributed one per person, for free from 9 a.m. to 11:30 a.m. Saturday at an Obama booth in front of the Athens County Court of Common Pleas, Farrell said. VIP ticket holders will be permitted to enter the venue at 6:15 p.m., he said.

Clinton Blaming Media, Now Obama's Fundraising

hillary clinton has started blaming the media. now she said obama's raised more money than her.

CNN: "Senator Obama has campaigned hard in these states," the memo continues. "He has spent time meeting editorial boards, courting endorsers, holding rallies, and - of course - making speeches."

The memo came out moments after Obama campaign manager David Plouffe finished a conference call with reporters, during which he said the New York senator needs big victories in Texas and Ohio Tuesday if she hopes to chip away at Obama's now 153 pledged delegate lead — according to CNN's latest estimate.

"The Clinton campaign needs to begin wining big states by big margins to have any hope of eliminating this delegate lead they are facing," he said. rest at cnn

Obama’s mathematical delegate lead

Obama’s message
Obama's legislative accomplishments
what are presidential qualities?

Obama: More Pay for Teachers

obama wants to bring back art, music, science to the classroom. he wants to pay teachers more, and at the same time, offer more training for teachers. he goes on to talk about reforming "no child left behind," adding after school programs and how teachers shouldn't be teaching to the test.
the biggest roar from the crowds:
"it doesn't matter how much money we put in if parents don't parent."
amen.

Clinton To Blame Press For Obama Win

clinton is preparing the scene. obama wins and it's the media's fault. they, too, have sucked down the kool-aid.

after all, she's been arguing, if it wasn't for the fact that obama was getting so much exposure (she says of the good kind) then she would be doing better.

just another tactic for clinton. it's an expansion of the idea: obama lacks so much substance why is the media paying so much attention to him when i'm the one with the meat. the media doesn't set the agenda, much as they sometimes like to think. tv follows newspapers and newspapers follow the news. i would imagine the media also has probably crunched the numbers and realize that it's mathematically impossible for clinton to gain the lead unless she pulls off big wins in texas and ohio.

i would argue obama has gotten the worst of the negative press, all that underhanded yucky stuff, then there's all that negativity about his supposed "lack of substance" and the best of the positive press because he draws large crowds to his inspiring rallies.

clinton says the media should be digging up dirt on obama. maybe the press has dug and can't find any dirt? she says we know everything about her. do we?

as for obama, he said remember new hampshire and isn't taking anything for granted. the obama camp has moved on to mississippi, which has a primary on march 11.

Upcoming primary and caucus schedule

Obama’s message
Obama's legislative accomplishments
Obama’s mathematical delegate lead
what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced
Historians for Obama