Showing posts with label jason altmire. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jason altmire. Show all posts

Monday, March 24, 2008

On the Minds of Superdelegates 9

this is my 9th in the series "what's on the minds of superdelegates?"
it's important to know who these people are and what they're thinking because they WILL decide who the nominee will be. will they be fair?
this super is super and isn't falling for all the media garbage:
Uncommitted superdelegate Jay Parmley, former head of the Oklahoma Democratic Party, says race relations are important but that it won't affect his vote at the convention. "I do not for a minute believe that he agrees with the comments his pastor made. [So] that's not going to tip me one way or the other," he said.
clinton's got a lot of convincing to do says this super:
Superdelegates say they are listening. But the cold, hard numbers facing Clinton are daunting.

"If you're a superdelegate, why would you do anything else but follow the will of the people?" said U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire, an uncommitted superdelegate from Pennsylvania who has fielded five calls from Sen. Clinton or her husband in the past couple of weeks.

"Clinton's argument is superdelegates are experienced, and you're supposed to exercise your judgment. But boy, it's going to be really difficult for me, if Obama's ahead on all other counts, to go the other way."

wait and see for this one:
Jon Ausman, an uncommitted Democratic National Committee member from Tallahassee, said he thinks many superdelegates will wait until the last minute because of lingering doubts about who is the stronger candidate.

To him the most important consideration is who will help Democrats win more congressional and state legislative seats, and that seems to be Obama. But Ausman is sympathetic to Clinton's arguments.

"I really don't know what I'm going to do on this one,'' said Ausman, who will be one of Florida's 26 superdelegates if the state's delegation is seated in Denver. "I don't want to get into buyer's remorse as with John Kerry, when all of a sudden he's getting Swiftboated and he's gone."

more wait and see:
"I, as a lot of people, certainly have been tuned into all the controversy about Obama's minister, and you hear the delegates talking about it, and you hear both sides — it'll blow over, no it won't blow over, it's too big a thing, and so on and so forth," said Muriel K. Offerman, a DNC member and uncommitted superdelegate from Cary, N.C., who heard from Sen. Clinton last week.

"I don't know that it's changed much. And Obama came back with a very strong statement. It's a few weeks yet, so who knows what else might come up."

Clinton will find it much easier to make her case to the superdelegates if she manages to narrow Obama's lead in total votes and pledged delegates, which are allocated according to the results of primaries and caucuses.

Among pledged delegates, Obama leads Clinton by 168, but his lead drops to 121 when committed superdelegates are factored in, according to the Associated Press. A total of 2,024 delegates are needed to win the nomination.

"I can't imagine if there's a 150-delegate lead (for Obama) that the superdelegates are going to break so strongly for Clinton that Clinton would be the nominee," said U.S. Rep. Brad Miller, D-N.C., an uncommitted superdelegate. "If it's 25 to 50, that's essentially a tie — that means they went through the whole process, and came out with a tie.

"And who knows what the public perceptions will be at that point, what the polling will be, what more we will have learned about the candidates."

how indiana's supers are feeling:

Northwest Indiana has three such superdelegates, who may vote for whomever they chose when the party meets in Denver: Former East Chicago mayor and longtime Democratic National Committee member Robert A. Pastrick, and U.S. Reps. Pete Visclosky and Joe Donnelly.

Pastrick, who has been accorded superdelegate status for two decades, received daily calls and e-mails at his Mexican vacation home from candidates seeking his support -- the first time he can recall anyone asking outside the convention floor in 30 years.

"It's been pretty constant," said Pastrick on Friday, after returning from a Thursday campaign rally for Clinton in Anderson. "Usually, Indiana's primary is so late, it doesn't matter. And superdelegates aren't often a factor."

Pastrick gives no indication to the media or Obama supporters that he is wavering in his support of Clinton, whom he endorsed shortly after she announced her candidacy.
Visclosky said he is "firmly, completely, absolutely uncommitted," and hasn't even attended a party convention since 1992. As a result, he has been courted aggressively, if cordially, by both camps. Asked if this spring is an interesting time to be a superdelegate, Visclosky admitted: "It's an interesting phenomenon that my sparkling personality has finally taken hold."

"I am being contacted by the campaigns, and surrogates, friends and acquaintances. No one is engaging in any hard sell. I would describe it as touching gloves," he said.

Donnelly, in an e-mail response to questions from the Post-Tribune, offered the following:

"Ultimately, I will support whomever I think would best serve our country as president.

"In reaching that decision, I will take into consideration a number of factors including, but not limited to, the pledged delegate count, the popular vote, how the respective nominees fared in Indiana and the 2nd District and where each stands on issues of importance to north central Indiana.

"More than anything, I'm pleased that Indiana will have a say in choosing the Democratic Party's presidential nominee."

Since super-delegates' endorsement isn't really binding until they vote in August, will the region's three superdelegates consider the results of the May 6 primary when they make their choice?

Party rules may dictate they can vote on their own, but a popular vote determines the rest and many have argued the only democratic way forward for the Democrats is for superdelegates to vote with their constituents.

Visclosky will continue to weigh his options and is listening closely to the candidates' evolving stances on the Iraq War and the economy.

"I do reserve the right to make my own informed judgment," Visclosky said.

And Pastrick will keep his own counsel as well, it would appear.

"I feel I'd have to do what the state really feels ... there's a lot of considerations there," he said. "I don't think you can cross that bridge until you come to it."


Q&A with super who floated the idea of a superdelegate primary of sorts:

Q: So as a superdelegate, you have suggested a very interesting plan which would involve the superdelegates having their own convention. How would that work?
Bredesen: Well, my concern is that we're going to get to the point of the convention having wasted the summer, having a very divisive convention, and trying to go into the election with a divided party and two months to go. At that point, after the primaries are over on June 3, there is really nothing left but the superdelegates. And what I'm saying is that they need to step up -- I'm one of them -- act our age and make a choice, and let the party get on with it. I think the way to do that and make it happen is to actually call them together -- not in a convention with all the hoopla and the sideshows and so on -- but in a businesslike meeting somewhere they can get to over a weekend, and maybe hear from the candidates and get people on the record. Let's get a nominee and move on, and concentrate on winning this election.
Q: By doing that, wouldn't those superdelegates be acting on their own judgment rather than on the popular votes or the number of delegates?
Bredesen: I don't think so. First of all, I absolutely believe that superdelegates are designed to exercise some independent judgment, and certainly the popular vote across the country and in their own states is one of the elements that would enter into that judgment. But come June 3, the rest of that is a done deal. You know what the popular vote is at that point, you know what the delegate counts are at that point. My point is that at that point you have all the information you're going to have.
Q: Senator [Barack] Obama is slipping in the polls now, the national polls. Do you think that, as some [Hillary] Clinton supporters are saying today, that this is an indication that he might be vulnerable in the general election because of the controversy over Reverend [Jeremiah] Wright?
Bredesen: Well, look, the controversy over Reverend Wright, anyone can see, has not helped him. I think there is no question it has hurt him. But this is a process that has been going on for over a year. There have been ups and downs in the polls before –- the issue du jour, the issue of the week and so on. I think he's the recipient of the negative headlines this week, but I think that stuff will go up and down. I think the premium and the benefit of having a nominee and starting to heal the wounds and close ranks in June really outweighs any little tiny bit of additional information you'd get by going through the whole summer. I want to win this election.
Q: So what criteria are you using right now as you try to make up your own mind?
Bredesen: I think, from my standpoint, I'm genuinely undecided. I'm interested in, first of all, what people in my state think. Senator Clinton won the state fairly handily. I'm also interested, as you come in later, in what's happening nationally and, obviously, at the moment, Senator Obama is ahead in the popular vote nationally. I really think just trying to make a good choice and find the right, electable person is something that the superdelegates -- that is what it was designed for. If it had been simply to parrot what went on in your state, they wouldn't be superdelegates. They would be pledged delegates based on the vote totals in the state.
In my case, Obama is ahead nationally and Hillary Clinton won Tennessee -- what's the popular vote for me? We have a number of unpledged superdelegates. Is it a winner-take-all? Are all of them supposed to go with the popular vote winner, or are we supposed to divide ourselves up like the rest of the delegates? I think it really was intended, for better or for worse, that we exercise some independent judgment here.

Q: And finally, back to this controversy that has seemed to affect Obama's standing in the national polls. Do you think, that this Reverend Wright issue -- yourself as a superdelegate looking at this -- has raised questions about whether he can win a general election?
Bredesen: I think it certainly -- I can speak for Tennessee -- it certainly has not been a positive in Tennessee. It has raised some questions in Tennessee. It is difficult to know -- we're in the first week of any sort of discussion of this and, believe me, anybody in politics knows that things can change dramatically over the course of days and weeks and certainly months. So I don't know how it will all play out. It has not been a good week for him. Mrs. Clinton has also had some weeks that were not good for her, and will probably have more for each of them before this is all over.

montana super holding onto his vote:

Former U.S. Sen. John Melcher says he is keeping his key superdelegate vote neutral in the race between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama.

Melcher is 1 of 8 such delegates in Montana who can vote for whichever presidential candidate they choose. Others include Gov. Brian Schweitzer and U.S. Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester.

Melcher said Friday that he may decide to endorse someone before the primary season ends. Other Montana superdelegates have largely promised to wait until after the state's June 3 primary.


supers making money off the campaigns. i didn't know this could happen. does this mean they support the hand that feeds them?:

Because of their interest in politics, campaign officials have said it is not surprising that some might be involved in campaign work; the party has no rules prohibiting campaigns from paying superdelegates.

The firm owned by former Rhode Island Democratic state chairman and superdelegate Mark Weiner took in $678,000 from the Clinton campaign for supplying campaign products such as bumper stickers and yard signs. His firm, Financial Innovations, has been paid more than $1.5 million over the course of the campaign, according to the reports.

Factotum Productions, a Massachusetts business run by Clinton superdelegate Gus Bickford, was paid $8,000 in November for consulting that started the day he endorsed Clinton. Payments continued in February, to the tune of another $11,000. The campaign also made payments to Kathleen Healy, based at the same Westford, Mass., address as Factotum.

The Clinton campaign has paid the marketing firm run by a third superdelegate, Steve Grossman, about $3,000 for printing costs. The campaign owes the firm another $18,000, the FEC filing shows.

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4
On the Minds of Superdelegates 5
On the Minds of Superdelegates 6
On the Minds of Superdelegates 7
On the Minds of Superdelegates 8

Sunday, March 16, 2008

On the Minds of Superdelegates 5

this is my fifth in a series of 'what's on the minds of superdelegates and this one is action packed. the attention on the supers is heating up and we need to know who they are and what they're thinking. they will decide the contest, barring any major shift. the decision for them is also getting more complex. see my superdelegate tally in the sidebar, as well as add ons.

read on.

superdelegates are getting obstinate. the following set of blurbs are from a nyt piece:
Superdelegate Gray Sasser says he'll determine the "will of the people" - not your campaign.

"The will of the people is a very transitory term," said Sasser, an undecided superdelegate and head of the Tennessee state party. "The deciding factor for most superdelegates is, 'Who is going to be the best candidate to carry the Democratic banner?'"
............
"Hopefully they are not suggesting that any superdelegate who deviates from the will of the people is somehow acting inappropriately, because the rules were set up clearly to allow that level of discretion," countered Jerry Meek, a superdelegate and chairman of the North Carolina Democratic Party.

Meek told the Daily News that he and other superdelegates have been under "a lot of pressure" to "go along with the will of the people, however that's measured."

Measuring the will of the people may be more difficult than it sounds. Is it the number of pledged delegates? Or the final tally of the popular vote?

The two numbers don't always jive: Clinton handily won the Nevada caucuses, but Obama won more pledged delegates from the Silver State because of a weighted allotment system.

Obama now wields a nearly insurmountable lead in pledged delegates. But if Clinton has boffo showings in the Pennsylvania primary April 22 and nabs repeat wins in the re-do of Florida and Michigan, she could surpass him in the popular vote.
.........

While many superdelegates said they intended to keep their options open as the race continued to play out over the next three months, the interviews suggested that the playing field was tilting slightly toward Mr. Obama in one potentially vital respect. Many of them said that in deciding whom to support, they would adopt what Mr. Obama’s campaign has advocated as the essential principle: reflecting the will of the voters.

Mr. Obama has won more states, a greater share of the popular vote and more pledged delegates than Mrs. Clinton.

the new york times did a poll of superdelegates:
A New York Times survey of superdelegates last week found that Mr. Obama had been winning over more of them recently than Mrs. Clinton had, though Mrs. Clinton retained an overall lead among those who have made a choice. Over the past month, according to the survey, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, picked up 54 superdelegates; Mrs. Clinton, of New York, picked up 31.

“If we get to the end and Senator Obama has won more states, has more delegates and more popular vote,” said Representative Jason Altmire, Democrat of Pennsylvania, who is undecided, “I would need some sort of rationale for why at that point any superdelegate would go the other way, seeing that the people have spoken.”

Mr. Altmire said he was repeating an argument that he made to Mrs. Clinton during a session at her house in Washington on Thursday night with uncommitted superdelegates.

.........
“This was everybody’s worse nightmare come to fruition,” said Richard Machacek, an uncommitted superdelegate from Iowa, who said he was struggling over what to do.

.........
In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown would seemingly have an easy task. Mrs. Clinton won his state by 10 points. If the nominating fight had to be resolved by party leaders, wouldn’t he side with her? Not necessarily.

“It’s the overall popular vote, it’s the overall delegates, it’s who is bringing energy to the campaign, it’s who has momentum,” Mr. Brown said. “It should be wrapped up before the convention, and I think it will be.”
.........
Representative John P. Murtha, Democrat of Pennsylvania, is not wringing his hands. “I don’t see the problem,” he said. “People complain and criticize each other, and then they always work it out.”
.........
But Eileen Macoll, a Democratic county chairwoman from Washington State, is expecting something different — and not exactly looking forward to it. “I think it’s going to go all the way to the floor,” Ms. Macoll said. “We will take the vote and that will be the nominee. We’re going to see that happen.”
.........
“It think it has got to be brokered before the convention,” said Bill George, the head of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. in Pennsylvania. “I think there should be a couple of people — maybe Howard Dean and Al Gore, they have some credibility — to do it. Dean should call a meeting, and the two camps should be forced to do it.”

When asked how, Mr. George just laughed. “I just think the two campaigns have to do it,” he said. “I think we lose credibility in America if we let some group come in and do it.”
..........
But David Parker, a superdelegate from North Carolina, was not about to give much deference to any political leader in a contest that was of such consequence. “I don’t think too many people are going to listen to Howard Dean unless he appointed them,” Mr. Parker said. “The D.N.C. is not some monolithic group that is going to move as a body.”
..........
“Barack’s impressive showing in our state is attractive to me,” said Senator Amy Klobuchar, Democrat of Minnesota, where Mr. Obama beat Mrs. Clinton two to one in the popular vote last month. “If somehow 200 superdelegates decide this, it will be problematic.”

And there were indications that Mrs. Clinton is facing some questions among the superdelegates about her electability and her potential effect on other Democratic candidates in November.
..........
“A key question to me is how the candidates would affect the down-ballot races,” said Steven Achelpohl, the Democratic state chairman in Nebraska. “I think Obama would have a more positive impact on our other races out here in Nebraska.”

As of Friday, Mrs. Clinton claimed 254 superdelegates, and the Obama campaign said it had commitments from 213; the figures provided by the campaigns differed somewhat from those tallied by The Times.

Mr. Obama has won 1,367 delegates in primaries and caucuses, compared with 1,224 for Mrs. Clinton, based on a count and projection by The Times. A candidate needs 2,025 votes to win the nomination.
..........
There are 246 superdelegates who are not listed by either campaign as supporters and are viewed as uncommitted. Of those, 107 are from states where Mr. Obama won nominating contests, compared with 83 for Mrs. Clinton. An additional 56 come from states that have not yet voted.

Of the 246 uncommitted superdelegates, 75 are women, 10 are governors and 100 are in Congress. So far, Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are relatively even when it comes to competing for elected officials; Mrs. Clinton’s overall advantage among superdelegates has come from current and former party officials, reflecting the ties she and her husband have built over the years.

Some argued that the fighting between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama was good for the party, by keeping the candidates in the news and energizing Democrats. “People are just enthusiastic about their candidates — I don’t find any rancor here,” said Jennifer Moore, chairwoman of the Kentucky Democratic Party.
..........
The superdelegates said in interviews that more than anything they wanted the contest resolved before Democrats assemble in Denver at the end of August.

“Every day that this continues, people can surmise that this is going to the convention in Colorado and it could be decided by the superdelegates,” said Gov. Joe Manchin III of West Virginia, the head of the Democratic Governors Association. “There is not a superdelegate that I have spoken to who wants that to happen.”

and there are some superdelegate spots that are up for grabs:
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are eager to court the eighth superdelegate from South Dakota, one of the 796 officially uncommitted voters at the Democratic convention whose support could put either of the candidates over the top in the race for the party's presidential nomination.

There's just one problem: The state's last superdelegate spot is empty, and won't be filled until June.

"Any Joe Democrat or Jane Democrat can apply," said Rick Hauffe, the state Democratic party's executive director.

Indeed, while the candidates focus their attention on the remaining 10 primaries, beginning with next month's in Pennsylvania, a parallel process to pick the remaining superdelegates is unfolding that could have an equally important impact on the race.

here's a recent obama superdelegate:
A local superdelegate has endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for president, Obama's presidential campaign announced Friday.

Melissa Schroeder, a Merrill resident and secretary for the Democratic Party in Wisconsin's 7th Congressional District, had said she would not make a decision until after the state's Feb. 19 primary. Obama won 58 percent of the vote in Wisconsin to rival Hillary Rodham Clinton's 41 percent.

chroeder said Obama, D-Ill., would be the unifying candidate who could win the November general election.

"When all was said and done, I felt Obama was more electable," Schroeder told the Wausau Daily Herald. "He's going to be a unifier, and he will win over Independents as well as Republicans."

As she debated her decision, Schroeder said she fielded periodic phone calls from supporters of both Democratic candidates. After the March 4 primaries in Texas, Ohio, Vermont and Rhode Island, however, Schroeder said she did not receive a call from either campaign.

"It was a process I went through without any persuasion," she said. "They pretty much left me alone for awhile."

Obama’s Superdelegate Momentum
new: demconwatch will be tracking those superdelegates that will back the delegate leader.

Who Can Beat McCain?
On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4