Obama 39 Electoral Votes More to Win

With Minnesota and Wisconsin, Obama is 39 electoral votes away, according to CNN's map. 

Bill Clinton: Left Wing Conspiracy

are the clintons being for real or are they still just playing politics?

The General Election

the only hillary supporters left now are those who wouldn't vote for barack obama in the first place. you may have noticed, their language has gotten uglier and their comments all over the internet are tinged with words like "liberal" and "theology" and all the other mean and nasty unmentionables. these are people that even hillary, when she comes to her right mind, would be ashamed to have as supporters. these people are loud for sure but will not matter in the general election.

first, the true democrats will unite (including the majority of hillary's supporters). second, the youth voters are going to come out in bigger numbers. third, obama will get his share of independents. fourth, black voters will be out in force. fifth, mccain will have some libertarian opposition sucking away votes from him. sixth, mccain is too close to bush, who is now being called possibly the worst president ever. people look at mccain and see bush. seventh, obama has always been vastly underestimated. eighth, obama doesn't have to win the west. he doesn't have to win ohio and pennsylvania. he only needs to get the most electoral votes and there are many, many ways to do that. obama has always been tops when it comes to strategy.

lastly, obama will win and he'll win big. hillary will be a faint memory and mccain will be ready to relax.

chill

Obama 280 McCain 258

newsweek analysis based on survey usa general election map.

Obama Leads Mcain by 7 in New Quinnipiac Poll

new poll:
Quinnipiac
05/08 - 05/12
1475 sample
obama, 47, mccain, 40
Obama +7
in the same poll, hillary beats mccain by 5.

Obama Seeking New Voters in General Election

forget about those white men in ohio that would never vote for obama because he's black (pity them), obama is looking toward the general election and looking to sign up a new electorate, more voters younger than 30 and more black voters to compensate and win state's such as ohio.

politico: Obama's massive, smoothly integrated volunteer organization has been a mainstay of his campaign. It has been central to his success in caucus states such as Minnesota and Idaho, where a volunteer army - organized online - preceded and noticeably bolstered his staff's organizing efforts, helping to build the huge victory margins that have made him the frontrunner.

His voter registration efforts have drawn far less attention. But they were there from the start. When Obama toured Iowa last February in his first campaign swing, his campaign brought along voter registration cards. As the race there heated up, voter registration became a quiet focus, with registration drives in colleges and even high schools that helped drive Obama's victory.

South Carolina, Hildebrand said, was the site of another intensive effort. "A great case study for voter registration was the South Carolina primary, where we dramatically expanded the African-American vote and dramatically expanded the youth vote," he said. "It was such a big part of getting us to that 28-point margin of victory."

Another high-stakes voter registration drive just concluded in Pennsylvania, where the deadline to register as a Democrat and participate in the primary was March 24. The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that more than 234,000 voters have either newly registered as Democrats or switched from other parties, and the state hasn't finished counting the new registrations.

part of that effort will be obama's organizing fellows:

This summer we are looking for students or recent graduates who want to be a part of a new generation of leadership that believes, like Senator Obama, that real change comes from the ground up.

Fellows will be trained on the basics of organizing & campaign fundamentals and then placed in a community to carryout grassroots activities. Program participation will start on June 5 through the end of the summer. Fellows will be asked to commit to a minimum of 30 hours per week.

John McCain's Turn is Coming

this was in the letters section of the nytimes.com. it doesn't look pretty for mccain.

To the Editor:

To the extent that Neal Gabler is right when he states that John McCain is “a darling of the news media,” it’s not so much because he shares their sense of irony. It’s because he’s a Republican who is not reliably conservative.

So here’s a prediction from someone who’s been a full-time working journalist since 1967: The love affair will end as soon as soon as the general election begins (if not sooner). That’s when every gaffe by Mr. McCain will be portrayed by the media as “evidence” that he’s old — really, really old. That’s when every grimace will be “proof” that he’s got a hair-trigger temper.

When the Democrats stop beating each other over the head, and one of them starts running in earnest against John McCain, the media will no longer find their “darling” nearly as “ironic” — or nearly as lovable.

From a media point of view, it’s one thing when Senator McCain sticks a finger in a fellow Republican’s eye, quite another when he’s taking aim at a liberal Democrat.

Bernard Goldberg

Record 4 Million Registered Democrats in Pennsylvania

record numbers of democrats (or party switchers) have turned out to vote this year, about 26 million, compared to 17.5 million who've voted for republican candidates.
the 26 million doesn't count early votes for john edwards and others. the republican votes count all the the long-forgotten likes of rudy juliani and the rest that i've forgotten.
in pennsylvania democrat registrations hit a record of 4 million. fingers crossed that most of these registered to vote for obama. if obama can cut into clinton's lead there, she might have to start thinking about her exit strategy since she's rattled on about "big states."

nyt: “It’s kind of incredible,” Harry A. VanSickle, the state’s elections commissioner, tells The Caucus as his office prepares to post the new numbers. “It’s the first time we know of that a party in Pennsylvania has gone over 4 million.”

republican registrations are at 3.2 million in pennsylvania. party registrations in pennsylvania ended yesterday.
this all points to a general election tsunami that favors the democrats:

Many state and local election officials expect turnout in the Nov. 4 presidential election to exceed that of 2004, when voter turnout hit 61 percent — which was the highest level since 1968, according to the Center for the Study of the American Electorate.

“November could see the highest turnout of my lifetime,” said Arizona Secretary of State Jan Brewer, 63. “Turnout could be up to as much as 80 percent.”

given the nature of the electorate "winner take all" process of the general election, if all those democrats and all those republicans voted in the general election in november, the democrat would get all the electoral votes in pennsylvania.

General Election Map and Calculator
Who Can Beat McCain?

Democrats Might Not Need Florida

in the general election, democrats might not need florida's electoral votes, according to this story:

The standard Democratic path is to count on some 15 thoroughly Democratic states like New York and California to deliver about 200 electoral votes, and then focus on winning enough swing states to reach the winning number of 270. One Democratic governor once derided the strategy as competing in 16 states and "then hope for a triple bank-shot to win Ohio or Florida."

But the map is changing. Not only are big swing states such as Ohio looking more Democratic-leaning than they have in years, but a host of formerly red states from Virginia to Colorado look ripe for Democrats to pick off.

The Obama campaign is even talking up their ability to win such solidly red states as Kansas and North Carolina.

"Right now it's a lot easier to see some red states going to blue,'' said pollster John Zogby, but he cautioned that despite the national political climate no one should underestimate the Democrats' ability to lose.

For Republicans, the basic electoral vote math remains the same: lose Florida, lose the election.

So no Democratic campaign will admit to writing off Florida, and the nominee will make enough token effort in Florida to force the Republicans to spend money protecting those 27 electoral votes. Indeed, the hard-and-fast campaign decisions won't come until fall, and then will be guided by week-by-week polling data.

General Election Map and Calculator
Who Can Beat McCain?

In North Dakota Obama Beats McCain

here's a blow to clinton's bogus "big states" matter, small ones don't, especially the ones that would never become blue:
from surveyUSA:

A new poll from SurveyUSA found that if the presidential election were held now, Barack Obama would best John McCain in North Dakota. The sampling of 574 likely voters in the state said 46 percent would go for Obama, 42 percent for McCain. In the same poll, Sen. Hillary Clinton would lose to McCain, 54 percent to 35 percent among North Dakotans.
Of course, a single poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. It’s not a definitive measure of voter preference unless it’s supplemented by a series of polls and other analyses that identify trends and settled voter sentiment. Nonetheless, even the suggestion that a Democrat – any Democrat – can win the presidential vote in historically red-state North Dakota in 2008 is an eyebrow-raiser.

North Dakota has rarely been blue on the election map. Since statehood, North Dakotans have favored the Democratic presidential candidate only five times: Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Some historians argue that those departures from the state’s reliable Republican tilt were due to unique circumstances: Wilson’s pledge (violated) to keep the United States out of World War I; Roosevelt’s New Deal promises to raise the nation out of the Great Depression; Johnson, carrying on the agenda of assassinated John Kennedy and lucky enough to run against deeply unpopular Barry Goldwater.

The North Dakota SurveyUSA poll (done in late February) is broken down by age and gender. Obama easily won the 18-34 group (57 percent to 33 percent for McCain, 9 percent undecided), lost by a little the 35-54 group (41 percent to

47 percent, 12 percent undecided) and won elderly voters (44 percent to McCain’s 42 percent, 14 percent undecided).

By gender, Obama was within the poll’s margin of sampling error with

45 percent of male voters to 44 percent for McCain. Female voters broke

48 percent for Obama, 39 percent

map of who won what (it illustrates on who really is ahead)
obama leads in north carolina polls

Obama Up in Polls

Clinton still leads in pennsylvania but the gap has narrowed.

Obama Leads McCain by 12

in a general election matchup between obama and mccain, obama leads mccain by 12 points; clinton leads mccain by 6 points.

Arizona Sen. John McCain kicks off his general election campaign trailing both potential Democratic nominees in hypothetical matchups, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama leads McCain, who captured the delegates needed to claim the Republican nomination Tuesday night, by 12 percentage points among all adults in the poll. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) enjoys a six-point lead over the presumptive GOP nominee. Both Democrats are buoyed by moderates and independents in the head-to-heads and benefit from sustained negative public assessments of President Bush and the war in Iraq.

About two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job and think the war was not worth fighting, and most hold those positions "strongly." A slim majority also doubts the United States is making progress toward restoring civil order in Iraq, even as McCain and others extol recent successes there.

These views are closely related to voters' choices: McCain does poorly against Clinton and Obama among those who disapprove of the president and those opposing the war.

We Get the President We Deserve

photo: david turnley


but we need barack obama.

it's all out there in the blog world. school kids, informed by their parents, are talking about how obama is muslim (muslims, followers of the islamic faith, are in no way terrorists and it's despicable the way islam has been distorted. much of this can be blamed on bush. however obama is not muslim) and rush limbaugh, who is as far as i can tell a minor distraction (how many listeners does he really have?), convinced some of his listeners to vote for clinton, and many ohioans just couldn't vote for a black man.

it's headspinning the amount of ignorance and fear that is out there.

i suppose now obama's white supporters have some insight on just what it means to be a "minority."

it means you have to work extra hard to excel. that's what the obama camp needs to do. it needs to go above and beyond. not that it hasn't already. i know plenty of people who've worked their tails off. but in addition to the message of change, the obama camp has to educate people along the way, while fending off the kitchen sink.

obama is not only the superior candidate in judgement and leadership, he's what this country needs in order to become more worldly.

but we will get the president we deserve. we got bush because we were too fearful. perhaps we are ready for change. but how much change?

do we want some change? or do we want an overhaul and new thinking? for those who are looking for change, clinton is a good candidate. she’ll be a contrast to bush. but for those who are looking for meaningful change that reeks of brand new--a new direction, a new mindset, enlightened thinking, obama is the best candidate.

so just how change tolerant are we?
it's on to mississippi march 11, where clinton's "momentum" will be halted, and wyoming's caucus march 8.

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Everything barack obama
Blueprint for change
Obama’s message

Republicans: Surgeon's Scalpel Will Defeat Obama

we need to know the opposing side's strategy in the general election. right? this story by tony blankley says that hillary clinton has shown what won't work in defeating obama.

He cheerfully and in a cool, understated tone will slice and dice overly broad charges, such as Hillary's "inexperience" taunt or her ill-considered "words vs. action" charge.

he concludes mccain won't win with sweeping allegations, such as "he's too liberal."

If Obama can be defeated, it will not be with a meat cleaver but with a surgeon's scalpel. This is difficult in a national campaign in which the public, almost of necessity, must be communicated with by slogans. But Obama is the master responding to blustery charges with wry, dry irony.

here's what the writer says:

The Republicans must systematically make a hundred tightly argued, irrefutable critiques of very specific examples of Obama's policy being wrong for at least 60 percent of America.

America may be going through one of our episodic style shifts. In 1932, FDR's conversational style trumped Hoover's old oratory. In 1960, JFK's coolness and wit caught the emerging post-World War II sophistication of our culture. Twenty years later America, tired of sophisticated cynicism, was ready to return to Reagan's old-fashioned sentiments and values.

Obama is tapping into a curious alchemy of youthful idealism tempered by Internet edginess. Republicans must communicate their values and policies through that prism, or they will not communicate at all.
Obama newspaper endorsements

Blueprint for change
Obama’s speeches

what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced

Historians for Obama

McCain Has Edge in LA Times Poll

john mccain has an 6 point edge over hillary clinton and a 2 point edge over barack obama in an la times/bloomberg poll. apparently, plenty of people are still afraid and believe that only a war advocate can solve the problem in iraq.
more people could get more fearful if the bush administration makes a worse mess of things by the time the general election rolls around.

WASHINGTON -- As he emerges from a sometimes- bitter primary campaign, presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain poses a stiff challenge to either of his potential Democratic opponents in the general election, a new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll has found.

The findings underscore the difficulties ahead for Democrats as they hope to retake the White House during a time of war, with voters giving McCain far higher marks when it comes to experience, fighting terrorism and dealing with the situation in Iraq.

Both Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton have made ending America's involvement in the war a centerpiece of their campaigns. And even though a clear majority of those polled said the war was not worth waging, about half of registered voters said McCain -- a Vietnam vet who has supported the Bush administration's military strategy -- was better able to deal with Iraq.

In head-to-head contests, the poll found, McCain leads Clinton by 6 percentage points (46% to 40%) and Obama by 2 points (44% to 42%). Neither lead is commanding given that the survey, conducted Feb. 21-25, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The Arizona senator is viewed favorably by 61% of all registered voters, including a plurality of Democrats.

The survey showed that McCain's potential advantages extend even to domestic issues, where he is considered to be most vulnerable. Even though McCain has joked about his lack of expertise on economic issues, voters picked him over Obama, 42% to 34%, as being best able to handle the economy. However, Clinton led McCain on that issue, 43% to 34%. more.

how it stands in ohio
Obama’s speeches

what are presidential qualities?
Roosevelt was called inexperienced
Historians for Obama