54% of Americans Say Worse Off Since 9-11

Rasmussen: With the seventh anniversary of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks this week, over half of Americans (54%) still believe the country has changed for the worse since the events of that day, but this marks the first time the number has fallen in over six years.
Twenty-four percent (24%) say the change has been for the better, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey.

Rasmussen's electoral college -- where it stands. It's 259 to 247 with the leaners included, Obama's edge.Toss up states: Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia for a total of 32 electoral votes. You do the math- 270 to win.

Obama Ahead Electoral Votes

Remember how Obama beat Hillary with the delegate strategy -- every delegate matters. The Hillary chiefs didn't pay attention to delegates and instead went after a big-state strategy. Many of Hillary's supporters were caught off-guard when Obama won and accused him of cheating. He didn't cheat. He just knew that caucuses were important and winning delegates in every state mattered, which is why the Obama camp didn't take a big state strategy.

Well, now it's the electoral college that matters. Not the popular vote in national polls, which are spiking terror in the hearts of Obama supporters. So relax and get to work-- registering voters and phone banking -- and know that Obama's ahead in the electoral college. What's going to affect the electoral vote is getting as many people registered to vote as possible and then encouraging them to actually vote on the day that it matters.

This election will bring out record numbers of voters and most of the voters are democrats. I'll say again, if the younger voter -- 18 to 35 -- comes out as predicted, then Obama will win. This will be a generational election, in my humble opinion. The scene post election could be broadcasters and pundits musing at how it was the younger vote that helped lead to an Obama win. 

If you're going to look at polls, look at state polls, which is reflective of the electoral college. Most states are winner take all in electoral votes.

Check out the electoral college maps in my center sidebar. Here's some more good stuff. 

Video -- Obama ahead on the electoral map 

More strategy:

La Times: National polls suggest the race is a tossup. In presidential contests, though, the trick is stringing together victories in enough states to clear a 270-vote majority in the electoral college.

With the election less than two months out, each campaign is reevaluating the map. Privately, McCain strategists acknowledge they are up against a mighty field operation assembled by the Obama campaign, which McCain's team has been hard-pressed to match.

The Obama campaign's worries include carrying Wisconsin and New Hampshire, two states that voted Democratic four years ago but are no sure thing this time around. They are also keeping a wary eye on Michigan, another Democratic state in 2004. Obama made two stops there Monday, talking about the slumping economy.

"We had no illusions that this was going to be anything but close," David Axelrod, Obama's lead strategist, told reporters recently.

Armed with the larger bank account, Obama's plan has been to maximize his chances by trying to win states that were out of reach to Democrats in recent elections. He is making serious investments of staff and advertising in 18 states, 14 of which voted to reelect President Bush in 2004.

Obama Leading McCain by 102 Electoral Votes

The Swamp: We're inside four months from the Nov. 4 presidential election, and state-by-state polling suggests a big lead for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain.

State polling numbers compiled by electoral-vote.com show the Democrat from Illinois winning 26 states for a total of 320 electoral votes. That's a 102-electoral-vote margin over the Arizona Republican. It includes seven states Democrat John Kerry lost to President Bush in 2004: Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Montana and New Mexico.

BUT...

Speaking of Kerry, here's a huge caveat for Obama fans: The Web site's numbers on this date four years ago predicted a Kerry win in the electoral college.

Here's another: Obama's lead in several states, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, is narrow. A shift of a few percentage points across the Rust Belt would tip 52 electoral votes to McCain and give him the 270 he needs for the White House.

The map should increasingly turn in favor of Obama in the coming months. McCain hasn't been able to come up with a vision or an overarching plan for the country, sort of like Bush's running of the Iraq war, so it's doubtful that any staff shakeup or the Karl Rove personal attack strategy will get him anywhere. In these troubled economic times, you have to have a vision and no campaign strategy can make up for the lack of a plan.

In North Dakota Obama Beats McCain

here's a blow to clinton's bogus "big states" matter, small ones don't, especially the ones that would never become blue:
from surveyUSA:

A new poll from SurveyUSA found that if the presidential election were held now, Barack Obama would best John McCain in North Dakota. The sampling of 574 likely voters in the state said 46 percent would go for Obama, 42 percent for McCain. In the same poll, Sen. Hillary Clinton would lose to McCain, 54 percent to 35 percent among North Dakotans.
Of course, a single poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. It’s not a definitive measure of voter preference unless it’s supplemented by a series of polls and other analyses that identify trends and settled voter sentiment. Nonetheless, even the suggestion that a Democrat – any Democrat – can win the presidential vote in historically red-state North Dakota in 2008 is an eyebrow-raiser.

North Dakota has rarely been blue on the election map. Since statehood, North Dakotans have favored the Democratic presidential candidate only five times: Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Some historians argue that those departures from the state’s reliable Republican tilt were due to unique circumstances: Wilson’s pledge (violated) to keep the United States out of World War I; Roosevelt’s New Deal promises to raise the nation out of the Great Depression; Johnson, carrying on the agenda of assassinated John Kennedy and lucky enough to run against deeply unpopular Barry Goldwater.

The North Dakota SurveyUSA poll (done in late February) is broken down by age and gender. Obama easily won the 18-34 group (57 percent to 33 percent for McCain, 9 percent undecided), lost by a little the 35-54 group (41 percent to

47 percent, 12 percent undecided) and won elderly voters (44 percent to McCain’s 42 percent, 14 percent undecided).

By gender, Obama was within the poll’s margin of sampling error with

45 percent of male voters to 44 percent for McCain. Female voters broke

48 percent for Obama, 39 percent

map of who won what (it illustrates on who really is ahead)
obama leads in north carolina polls

Obama Up in Polls

Clinton still leads in pennsylvania but the gap has narrowed.

Clinton's Big States Argument

as much as i'd like to dismiss ohio, or at least the small-minded people of ohio who wouldn't vote for a black president, we might (and might not) need ohio because as one in-the-know person put it, in the general election, either the democrats get ohio's electoral votes or the republicans do.

in the general election, it isn't about the popular vote, or which candidate has the most votes when you tally the votes from each state, it's the electoral college votes of each state that decides. remember how al gore won the popular vote but what's- his-name stole the electoral college in 2000.

in the general election, most states have a winner take all system so if most of the people of that state vote for the republican, then the republican gets all the assigned electoral votes. so states such as pennsylvania, florida and ohio are states that are meaningful to each party because they don't reliably vote for one or the other as does california--democrat, new york--democrat, texas--republican.

california, texas, illinois and new york have the highest number of electoral votes. see this nifty electoral college map.

but clinton's "big states" argument, that she's better at winning the big states really doesn't matter when it comes to big states such as New York (31 electoral votes) and California (55 electoral votes) because, they are likely to vote democratic, regardless of whether its she or obama who is the nominee.