Obama Edges up In Polls

In Virginia, he's up 5.

Rasmussen: The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.
The current poll marks the first time that either candidate has had more than a two-point advantage in Virginia since May. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.
Just nine percent (9%) of Virginia voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say it is in poor shape. Just five percent (5%) say the economy is getting better; 83% say it is getting worse.

Ohio now a tossup:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Ohio finds John McCain with 47% of the vote while Barack Obama picks up 46%. That’s a slippage of three percentage points for McCain since Sunday night. In four previous surveys conducted over the past month, McCain has held an advantage ranging from three to seven points.
Similar trends have been found nationally as the recent economic crisis has unfolded: Support for McCain has declined while Obama’s totals remain steady.
Just eight percent (8%) of Ohio voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent while 54% say it's poor. Only three percent (3%) say it’s getting better while 54% say it’s heading in the opposite direction.

It's tie in Florida.
Obama leading in the electoral map.

New Zogby and Rasmussen Polls

obama is leading in north carolina and has a slight lead (really a tie, 1 point) in indiana. zogby is a fairly reliable poll. it accurately polled pennsylvania.

zogby:
Obama leads in North Carolina by a 46% to 37% margin, with 17% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won 43% support, compared to 42% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.

The telephone surveys, conducted May 1-2, 2008, are the latest of Zogby's two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 627 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 629 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.

In North Carolina, Obama leads in all age groups with one exception - those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied. But Clinton closed the gap in some age groups, compared to yesterday's two-day tracking report.

rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Carolina’s Presidential Primary, conducted Thursday night, finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49% to 40%. Earlier this week, Obama led by fourteen, 51% to 37%. A month ago, Obama led by twenty-three percentage points.

The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.

Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.

Forty percent (40%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.

Overall, 15% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina agree with Wright’s comments about the U.S. That figure includes 22% of Obama voters. Wright himself is viewed favorably by 15% of Likely North Carolina Primary Voters

indiana polls

In North Dakota Obama Beats McCain

here's a blow to clinton's bogus "big states" matter, small ones don't, especially the ones that would never become blue:
from surveyUSA:

A new poll from SurveyUSA found that if the presidential election were held now, Barack Obama would best John McCain in North Dakota. The sampling of 574 likely voters in the state said 46 percent would go for Obama, 42 percent for McCain. In the same poll, Sen. Hillary Clinton would lose to McCain, 54 percent to 35 percent among North Dakotans.
Of course, a single poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. It’s not a definitive measure of voter preference unless it’s supplemented by a series of polls and other analyses that identify trends and settled voter sentiment. Nonetheless, even the suggestion that a Democrat – any Democrat – can win the presidential vote in historically red-state North Dakota in 2008 is an eyebrow-raiser.

North Dakota has rarely been blue on the election map. Since statehood, North Dakotans have favored the Democratic presidential candidate only five times: Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Some historians argue that those departures from the state’s reliable Republican tilt were due to unique circumstances: Wilson’s pledge (violated) to keep the United States out of World War I; Roosevelt’s New Deal promises to raise the nation out of the Great Depression; Johnson, carrying on the agenda of assassinated John Kennedy and lucky enough to run against deeply unpopular Barry Goldwater.

The North Dakota SurveyUSA poll (done in late February) is broken down by age and gender. Obama easily won the 18-34 group (57 percent to 33 percent for McCain, 9 percent undecided), lost by a little the 35-54 group (41 percent to

47 percent, 12 percent undecided) and won elderly voters (44 percent to McCain’s 42 percent, 14 percent undecided).

By gender, Obama was within the poll’s margin of sampling error with

45 percent of male voters to 44 percent for McCain. Female voters broke

48 percent for Obama, 39 percent

map of who won what (it illustrates on who really is ahead)
obama leads in north carolina polls

Obama Up in Polls

Clinton still leads in pennsylvania but the gap has narrowed.