Final Voting Map

Electoral-vote: So after 2 years, nearly a billion dollars raised and spent, dozens of debates, and many surprises, what does it look like? If you are a Democrat, it looks good; correspondingly, if you are a Republican, it looks gloomy. John McCain made a last-ditch effort to gain ground in Pennsylvania, but it appears to have failed. Obama will take all the states John Kerry won in 2004, worth 252 electoral votes. He also has led consistently in three Bush states: Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, worth a total of 21 electoral votes. Together with the Kerry states, this gives Obama 273 EVs and the presidency, even if McCain runs the table on the other swing states. However, Obama is leading in Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia, and essentially tied in Florida, North Carolina, and Missouri. It is likely that Obama will win the election with well over 300 electoral votes, possibly 350 of them.

Dems Up 700,000 Rep Down 1 Million

Sweet. Take a look at the electoral map. 
Obama= 292 electoral votes
McCain= 219 electoral votes
There are 27 ties. Add 219 to 27, assuming McCain wins the ties (North Dakota, Missouri, Virginia) and you get 246. Still not a win.
Things can change, of course. But the map has come a long way since I last checked.

RCP: In the 29 states (plus the District of Columbia) where voter affiliation is kept by party, the Democrats have scored perceptible gains since the presidential election of 2004 while the Republicans have suffered significant losses. To be specific, the number of registered Democrats in party registration states has grown by nearly 700,000 since President George W. Bush was reelected in November 2004, while the total of registered Republicans has declined by almost 1 million.

More good news:

Two states stand out: Iowa and Nevada. In Iowa, Bush won by 10,000 votes and the Democrats have netted 95,000 new voters. In Nevada, Bush won by 22,000 votes and the Democrats have picked up 60,000 new voters. These numbers alone suggest that the Democrats have a good shot at picking up Iowa (7 electoral votes) and Nevada (5 electoral votes). If Obama gets these plus the Kerry states, he has 264 electoral votes, 6 shy of the 270 he needs. If McCain holds all the Bush states except Iowa and Nevada, he wins, but he can't afford to lose another swing state. If he loses New Mexico, too, the electoral college will be tied at 269-269 and the new House picks the President, with each state having one vote.

Here's more state by state polls

Obama Leading McCain by 102 Electoral Votes

The Swamp: We're inside four months from the Nov. 4 presidential election, and state-by-state polling suggests a big lead for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain.

State polling numbers compiled by electoral-vote.com show the Democrat from Illinois winning 26 states for a total of 320 electoral votes. That's a 102-electoral-vote margin over the Arizona Republican. It includes seven states Democrat John Kerry lost to President Bush in 2004: Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Montana and New Mexico.

BUT...

Speaking of Kerry, here's a huge caveat for Obama fans: The Web site's numbers on this date four years ago predicted a Kerry win in the electoral college.

Here's another: Obama's lead in several states, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, is narrow. A shift of a few percentage points across the Rust Belt would tip 52 electoral votes to McCain and give him the 270 he needs for the White House.

The map should increasingly turn in favor of Obama in the coming months. McCain hasn't been able to come up with a vision or an overarching plan for the country, sort of like Bush's running of the Iraq war, so it's doubtful that any staff shakeup or the Karl Rove personal attack strategy will get him anywhere. In these troubled economic times, you have to have a vision and no campaign strategy can make up for the lack of a plan.

Obama 39 Electoral Votes More to Win

With Minnesota and Wisconsin, Obama is 39 electoral votes away, according to CNN's map. 

A Lot of Ways to 270

270 is the magic number to win the presidency and Obama and his team are working out many paths to win, including without Florida and Ohio. As you may know, those two states helped George Bush get elected the last two times.

In the primary, some Ohio democrats weren't inclined to vote for a black man (too bad for them), though Obama is up slightly over McCain in Ohio. Florida is filled with older people, who have, let's call them, old fashioned thoughts as well. McCain's lead in Florida has shrunk in the past couple of weeks.

AP: Asked about his remarks, Plouffe said Ohio and Florida start out very competitive — but he stressed that they are not tougher than other swing states and said Obama will play "extremely hard" for both. But he said the strategy is not reliant on one or two states.

"You have a lot of ways to get to 270," Plouffe said. "Our goal is not to be reliant on one state on November 4th."

Plouffe has been pitching such a new approach to the electoral map in calls and meetings, according to several people who discussed the conversations on the condition of anonymity because they were meant to be private. Plouffe confirmed the descriptions in the interview.

Plouffe and his aides are weighing where to contest, and where chances are too slim to marshal a large effort. A win in Virginia (13 electoral votes) or Georgia (15 votes) could give Obama a shot if he, like Kerry, loses Ohio or Florida.

Plouffe also has been touting Obama's appeal in once Republican-leaning states where Democrats have made gains in recent gubernatorial and congressional races, such as Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, Alaska and North Dakota.

Obama's campaign has spent heavily on time and money in Virginia, where a Democratic presidential candidate hasn't won since 1964. In recent elections, however, high-profile Republicans have lost there. And in a sign of how serious Obama is taking the state, Plouffe dispatched to Virginia many aides who helped Obama stage his upset win in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3.

The key, Plouffe told supporters, will be to register new black voters and new young voters in Virginia.

WSJ
The common belief is that no one wins the presidency without ohio but Obama has bucked the common wisdom to this point.

If Sen. Obama is ahead solidly in Ohio, Colorado and Virginia and competitive in Florida, he will be headed for the Oval Office with a mandate.

Ohio is the single most important state. No Republican has ever been elected president without carrying it, and if Sen. Obama could win it, the chances of Sen. McCain breaking the pattern are slim, although possible.

Moreover, if Sen. Obama carries Ohio, he is likely to carry Pennsylvania and Michigan. They are similar demographically to Ohio, but slightly more Democratic, and Obama victories in those three would ensure his election.

Should he crack Virginia, that would be a hugely positive omen. The Old Dominion has not gone Democratic for president since 1964, but Sen. Obama thinks a large African-American vote and the trending-Democratic suburbs of Washington, D.C., could do the trick.

More guesswork that suggests a comfortable win for Obama

Obama Redistribution of Wealth

The General Election

the only hillary supporters left now are those who wouldn't vote for barack obama in the first place. you may have noticed, their language has gotten uglier and their comments all over the internet are tinged with words like "liberal" and "theology" and all the other mean and nasty unmentionables. these are people that even hillary, when she comes to her right mind, would be ashamed to have as supporters. these people are loud for sure but will not matter in the general election.

first, the true democrats will unite (including the majority of hillary's supporters). second, the youth voters are going to come out in bigger numbers. third, obama will get his share of independents. fourth, black voters will be out in force. fifth, mccain will have some libertarian opposition sucking away votes from him. sixth, mccain is too close to bush, who is now being called possibly the worst president ever. people look at mccain and see bush. seventh, obama has always been vastly underestimated. eighth, obama doesn't have to win the west. he doesn't have to win ohio and pennsylvania. he only needs to get the most electoral votes and there are many, many ways to do that. obama has always been tops when it comes to strategy.

lastly, obama will win and he'll win big. hillary will be a faint memory and mccain will be ready to relax.

chill

Clinton's Flawed Electoral Tactic

now, the clintons are saying they have the electoral vote! but again, their argument is flawed.

Never mind that electoral votes have absolutely nothing to do with picking the Democrats' nominee. And never mind that 86 of Clinton's "electoral votes" come from New York and California -- where both she and Obama would be winners in the general election.

The Electoral Vote Metric is likely to last about as long as the failed Caucus State vs. Primary State Metric or the Red State vs. Blue State Metric. So the Clinton campaign will soon need new talking points. These are the metrics they should be pushing:

the story by "candid camera's" peter funt goes on to say that the correct metrics the clintons should be using: she has the states that start with "new." HA! funny.
she leads in states that have the most starbucks. more funny. this is the best story i've seen in weeks.
General Election Map and Calculator
Obama: the Un-Beholden President

Democrats Might Not Need Florida

in the general election, democrats might not need florida's electoral votes, according to this story:

The standard Democratic path is to count on some 15 thoroughly Democratic states like New York and California to deliver about 200 electoral votes, and then focus on winning enough swing states to reach the winning number of 270. One Democratic governor once derided the strategy as competing in 16 states and "then hope for a triple bank-shot to win Ohio or Florida."

But the map is changing. Not only are big swing states such as Ohio looking more Democratic-leaning than they have in years, but a host of formerly red states from Virginia to Colorado look ripe for Democrats to pick off.

The Obama campaign is even talking up their ability to win such solidly red states as Kansas and North Carolina.

"Right now it's a lot easier to see some red states going to blue,'' said pollster John Zogby, but he cautioned that despite the national political climate no one should underestimate the Democrats' ability to lose.

For Republicans, the basic electoral vote math remains the same: lose Florida, lose the election.

So no Democratic campaign will admit to writing off Florida, and the nominee will make enough token effort in Florida to force the Republicans to spend money protecting those 27 electoral votes. Indeed, the hard-and-fast campaign decisions won't come until fall, and then will be guided by week-by-week polling data.

General Election Map and Calculator
Who Can Beat McCain?

Clinton's Big States Argument

as much as i'd like to dismiss ohio, or at least the small-minded people of ohio who wouldn't vote for a black president, we might (and might not) need ohio because as one in-the-know person put it, in the general election, either the democrats get ohio's electoral votes or the republicans do.

in the general election, it isn't about the popular vote, or which candidate has the most votes when you tally the votes from each state, it's the electoral college votes of each state that decides. remember how al gore won the popular vote but what's- his-name stole the electoral college in 2000.

in the general election, most states have a winner take all system so if most of the people of that state vote for the republican, then the republican gets all the assigned electoral votes. so states such as pennsylvania, florida and ohio are states that are meaningful to each party because they don't reliably vote for one or the other as does california--democrat, new york--democrat, texas--republican.

california, texas, illinois and new york have the highest number of electoral votes. see this nifty electoral college map.

but clinton's "big states" argument, that she's better at winning the big states really doesn't matter when it comes to big states such as New York (31 electoral votes) and California (55 electoral votes) because, they are likely to vote democratic, regardless of whether its she or obama who is the nominee.