Obama Leads in Oregon

for what it's worth, a new surveyUSA poll shows (polls are good and bad, they measure and influence, in this case it's good and influential) obama with a 10 lead over hillary in oregon.

The first major poll of the Oregon Democratic primary is out. SurveyUSA has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton, 52% to 42%. Obama is expected to win Oregon and these numbers are in line with what is expected. With him holding a double digit lead with over a month to go, he shouldn't have too hard a time expanding that lead (or at least sustaining it) once he actually starts paying attention to the state (let's keep in mind that he trends upward once he starts campaigning in a state aggressively). Of course, this is all assuming that the race is still going on when Oregon rolls around. Clinton could withdraw as early as the end of April (if she loses Pennsylvania which remains unlikely at this point) or after May 6th when she is expected to lose North Carolina and may lose Indiana as well.

The reason why polls like this matter though is they establish Clinton's "momentum" as a myth.

In North Dakota Obama Beats McCain

here's a blow to clinton's bogus "big states" matter, small ones don't, especially the ones that would never become blue:
from surveyUSA:

A new poll from SurveyUSA found that if the presidential election were held now, Barack Obama would best John McCain in North Dakota. The sampling of 574 likely voters in the state said 46 percent would go for Obama, 42 percent for McCain. In the same poll, Sen. Hillary Clinton would lose to McCain, 54 percent to 35 percent among North Dakotans.
Of course, a single poll is nothing more than a snapshot in time. It’s not a definitive measure of voter preference unless it’s supplemented by a series of polls and other analyses that identify trends and settled voter sentiment. Nonetheless, even the suggestion that a Democrat – any Democrat – can win the presidential vote in historically red-state North Dakota in 2008 is an eyebrow-raiser.

North Dakota has rarely been blue on the election map. Since statehood, North Dakotans have favored the Democratic presidential candidate only five times: Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916, Franklin Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936; Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Some historians argue that those departures from the state’s reliable Republican tilt were due to unique circumstances: Wilson’s pledge (violated) to keep the United States out of World War I; Roosevelt’s New Deal promises to raise the nation out of the Great Depression; Johnson, carrying on the agenda of assassinated John Kennedy and lucky enough to run against deeply unpopular Barry Goldwater.

The North Dakota SurveyUSA poll (done in late February) is broken down by age and gender. Obama easily won the 18-34 group (57 percent to 33 percent for McCain, 9 percent undecided), lost by a little the 35-54 group (41 percent to

47 percent, 12 percent undecided) and won elderly voters (44 percent to McCain’s 42 percent, 14 percent undecided).

By gender, Obama was within the poll’s margin of sampling error with

45 percent of male voters to 44 percent for McCain. Female voters broke

48 percent for Obama, 39 percent

map of who won what (it illustrates on who really is ahead)
obama leads in north carolina polls

Obama Up in Polls

Clinton still leads in pennsylvania but the gap has narrowed.