The Swamp: We're inside four months from the Nov. 4 presidential election, and state-by-state polling suggests a big lead for Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. John McCain.
State polling numbers compiled by electoral-vote.com show the Democrat from Illinois winning 26 states for a total of 320 electoral votes. That's a 102-electoral-vote margin over the Arizona Republican. It includes seven states Democrat John Kerry lost to President Bush in 2004: Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Montana and New Mexico.
BUT...
Speaking of Kerry, here's a huge caveat for Obama fans: The Web site's numbers on this date four years ago predicted a Kerry win in the electoral college.
Here's another: Obama's lead in several states, including Ohio and Pennsylvania, is narrow. A shift of a few percentage points across the Rust Belt would tip 52 electoral votes to McCain and give him the 270 he needs for the White House.
The map should increasingly turn in favor of Obama in the coming months. McCain hasn't been able to come up with a vision or an overarching plan for the country, sort of like Bush's running of the Iraq war, so it's doubtful that any staff shakeup or the Karl Rove personal attack strategy will get him anywhere. In these troubled economic times, you have to have a vision and no campaign strategy can make up for the lack of a plan.
