CBS Poll: The Palin Effect?

Double hug

Obama is leading McCain by 14 in a new CBS poll. Wowsa. Could this be the Palin effect? It could be that Palin finally sent Hillary supporters home, and that others have seen Palin for what she is-- unqualified. It could be that people are now leery of McCain's judgment because he chose Palin to be his running mate.

Obama Takes Lead in CBS Poll

McCain was ripped all over the news tonight and deservedly so. People are catching on and the media has stepped up their fact checking. They're not letting stupid stuff blow by. In this poll, Obama leads in independents and in women. More than half of the people don't think Palin is ready and 75% thought McCain chose her to win the election. This is heartening!

CBS: In a sign that John McCain's convention bounce has dissipated, Barack Obama has taken a 48 percent to 43 percent lead over his Republican rival among registered voters in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

McCain had a two percentage point lead among registered voters in a CBS News poll released on September 8th, just after the Republican National Convention. Prior to the party conventions, Obama led McCain by 3 points.

In the new poll, the gap among likely voters is the same as it is among registered voters: Obama leads among those seen as likely to go to the polls in November 49 percent to 44 percent.

Obama and McCain Interested in Foreign Assistance

I'm glad to hear about McCain's interest in aid to developing nations to help alleviate poverty. 

China is a good example. ABC had a special last night on China, its growing power and why we should care. The nation is helping to develop Cambodia so much so that the kids in the region are all learning Chinese. 

The question is who could actually get it done, given that most Americans could care less. A CBS poll out this week shows that Americans don't see the connection between foreign policy and our own economy. Of course, the question is loaded: 

CBS In general, domestic concerns -- not foreign policy issues -- are on the minds of most voters. 77% say the next president should focus on domestic issues over foreign policy issues.

WHAT SHOULD THE NEXT PRESIDENT FOCUS ON MORE?
(Among registered voters)
Domestic issues 77%
Foreign policy issues 8
Both (vol.) 12

In fact, with the global economy, domestic and foreign issues are one and the same. That's what I appreciate most about Obama. He sees the big picture, how everything is connected.

NPR: Every so often at town hall meetings on the campaign trail, Republican John McCain calls on people from a grassroots organization known as the ONE campaign. They ask him what he'll do to help poor nations fight HIV/AIDS, malaria and illiteracy. McCain has said he sees foreign assistance as a key factor in securing America.

"It really needs to eliminate many of the breeding grounds for extremism, which is poverty, which is HIV/AIDS, which is all of these terrible conditions that make people totally dissatisfied and then look to extremism, particularly Islamic extremism," he told a town hall meeting in New Hampshire last month.

At a speech in Washington this summer, Democrat Barack Obama also spoke about development aid as a strategic imperative for the U.S. in today's world.

"I know development assistance is not the most popular of programs, but as president, I will make the case to the American people that it can be our best investment in increasing the common security of the entire world and increasing our own security," he said. "That's why I will double our foreign assistance to $50 billion by 2012 and use it to support a stable future in failing states and sustainable growth in Africa, to halve global poverty and to roll back disease."

Media Pushes Risky Obama

Juan Williams, a pundit biased against Obama, was just on NPR talking about how many white people are uncomfortable with Obama's color. Newsflash: a risky poll out today. So many of the stories for the past couple of weeks have focused on Obama's riskiness. He's a risky guy, that Obama guy. Risky, Risky, Risky. 

John McCain's strategy, laser targeted at old white men, same as Hillary's strategy, to make Obama the Other, is working in that the media can't stop talking about why Obama is risky -- he's skinny, he's uppity, he's arrogant, he's a celebrity, he's young. He's black. Black. Black. Black.

I know that the republicans are playing on the fears of the folks who live in the Appalachian regions and they may know they're being played. They just need a good excuse not to vote for the black man. Too skinny, they'll take it. Too much schooling. Yes, you can't have a smart man in the White House. 

But I don't think Obama is going to get their vote no matter what he does. He could give them all $1,000 and they'd turn up their noses. 

I'm not sure Obama's going to need that vote and I think their numbers are over estimated. I also think there are plenty of old white people who WILL vote for Obama (and there are old white people who aren't racist who will vote for McCain and that's respectable).

But this year is the year the youth voter will tip the election in Obama's favor. Not many in the press are talking about this because in the past, the youth talked a big game but never made it to the polls. This time is different because they are actively involved in the campaign. They are invested. 

Frankly, I'm tired of writing about the old white people who won't vote for Obama because he's black, so I think I'll stop. 

More than anything, it's getting BORING. It also deflects the light away from McCain, who is lamer than lame, even by republican standards, and getting a free ride. 

This story wraps it all up:

RCP: Some of my Chicago friends who support Sen. Barack Obama already are speaking as if his victory is a done deal. I hate to burst their bubbles, but a nagging question still haunts Obama euphoria: Why isn't he further ahead in the polls?

After all, they gush, his superbly managed campaign of "hope" and "change" seems to be humming along, as strong as the euro against the dollar. The popularity of his rival Sen. John McCain's Republican brand is as weak as a subprime mortgage.

A CBS poll today shows some interesting results:

Working class whites (white voters with incomes less than $50K and without
a college degree) are now backing Obama – a reversal from last month.
George W. Bush won this group in both 2004 and 2000.

However, when income and education are isolated the results are a bit
different. Whites with incomes under $50K (regardless of education) back
Obama, while whites without a college degree (regardless of income) give
the edge to McCain.