Youth Vote up by 2 Million

Obama wins everybody. 

NYT: Between 21.6 and 23.9 million Americans in the age group from 18 to 29 years cast a ballot, up from about 19.4 million in 2004, numbers-crunchers at the Center for Information and Research of Civic Learning and Engagement, or Circle, announced on Wednesday.

Based on those figures, more young people went to the polls this year than they did in any election since 1972 when the voting age was lowered from 21 to 18, the researchers said. And 66 percent of them supported Mr. Obama, while 31 percent favored Senator John McCain.

Younger Voters Come Through

MSNBC: Early reports are indicating that the youngest members of the country's electorate voted Tuesday in higher numbers than in the last presidential election — and they voted more Democratic. Youth turnout appears to be exceeding 2004 levels, which was itself a year with a big surge in voters ages 18 to 29.

“We expected record turnout, and that is what we’re seeing right now,” says Heather Smith, a spokeswoman for Rock the Vote, an organization that works to encourage young people to register and vote in every election.

What’s more, young voters may prove to have been the key to Barack Obama's victory. Young voters preferred Obama over John McCain by 68 to 30 percent — the highest share of the youth vote obtained by any candidate since exit polls began reporting results by age in 1976, according to CIRCLE, a non-partisan organization which promotes research on the political engagement of Americans between ages 15 and 25.

Who Will Put Obama Over the Top?

If the young voters come out in the numbers that are expected, Obama will win. If they don't... Their vote really really matters this time.

Reason to Believe Youth Will Pull Through

Youth tour in Wisconsin

The youth were supposed to put John Kerry over the top, but they didn't come out in numbers that were expected. This time is different. At least that's my hope. The youth vote is needed to make up for the expected percent of the population who would vote against Obama because he is black. There is evidence that the younger voter (18-35) will vote in force because they have been fueling Obama's campaign. They are invested.

Atlantic: Every four years, it seems, especially among Democrats, the idea that the youth vote will rise up and make a difference gets bandied about excitedly and then … well, not much happens. Young people were supposed to put Al Gore over the top in 2000; four years later, they were supposed to deliver the Democratic nomination to Howard Dean. This year, the youth excitement has attached itself to Barack Obama. But unlike in the past, there’s reason to expect that this enthusiasm might produce real results.

In past cycles, anecdotal evidence of increased youth involvement—the media’s fixation on “Rock the Vote,” say, or on Howard Dean’s Internet supporters—never translated to the polls: no tidal wave of young voters ever materialized. But for Obama, one has. Take Iowa: In 2000, Democratic caucus voters younger than 30 made up about 9 percent of the electorate. In the 2008 Democratic caucus, they made up nearly a quarter. If Obama can replicate that turnout in a general election, he’ll have a very good shot at becoming president.

Yahoo's Clever Racism Poll

Yahoo doesn't ask would you vote for a black man or are we ready for a black president, but rather are black people friendly? Law abiding? Hardworking? Lazy? Intelligent?
The results: One third of white democrats and independents agreed with at least one negative adjective. The survey used 13.
This doesn't necessarily mean that someone who had a negative response to black people will in turn vote against Obama, as the poll showed.

Not all whites are prejudiced. Indeed, more whites say good things about blacks than say bad things, the poll shows. And many whites who see blacks in a negative light are still willing or even eager to vote for Obama.
....
Among white Democrats, one third cited a negative adjective and, of those, 58 percent said they planned to back Obama.

What the survey does say is there is still a lot of racial stereotyping going on. But who didn't know that?
Read the story and see the poll results.
This is where the younger voter is going to make the difference. If the voters who are 18-35 vote in force, it will be an Obama win.

Will The Youth Vote?

I've been saying this for a while, if the younger voter actually votes, Obama will win this election handily. The questions is: Will they vote? I've run into Obama posers -- They're all cool with the Obama shirts, stickers and whatever. To them, Obama is a fashion statement. They're not likely to vote. But there is a movement, a real one, of younger voters, who have the t-shirts, stickers and whatever but also know the issues and know what Obama stands for. They have been organizing for him -- that's right community organizing. They are the core of Obama's campaign. What's not certain is their numbers.

The Nation: With 44 million eligible voters, the Millennials comprise almost one-quarter of the potential electorate; by 2015, they will make up one-third of potential voters. But will they vote? The uptick in Millennial political participation has been going on for four years. The 2004 election marked the largest increase in 18-to-29-year-old turnout since 1972. Forty-nine percent of eligible Millennial voters went to the polls, a 9 point increase over 2000, although still far below the turnout rate of voters over 30. In the ten most competitive battleground states in 2004, however, where campaigns targeted young voters, Millennial turnout was even higher--64 percent.

Studies confirm that direct contact by peers increases the likelihood that young people will vote. Yale political scientists Don Green and Alan Gerber found that peer-to-peer contact raised youth turnout by eight to twelve points among registered voters. The spike in youth turnout in 2004 and 2006 was no fluke. It was the result of a significant increase in voter registration and get-out-the-vote drives by political campaigns, party groups and nonpartisan organizations.

These outreach efforts are utilizing YouTube, Facebook, MySpace, text messaging and cell phones to reach young voters. That's because 89 percent of 18-to-24-year-olds own a cell phone, and 86 percent of college students and 57 percent of non-college youth have access to FaceBook, which organizers use to raise awareness and expand social networks on the Internet and then bring young people together in person. WireTap is an online magazine for youth activists. (Because so many young people rely on cell phones, they are undercounted in public opinion polls, which mainly survey people using home phone numbers. As a result, polls may be under-estimating overall support for Obama).

Trick or Vote

The Halloween voting registration.

Media Pushes Risky Obama

Juan Williams, a pundit biased against Obama, was just on NPR talking about how many white people are uncomfortable with Obama's color. Newsflash: a risky poll out today. So many of the stories for the past couple of weeks have focused on Obama's riskiness. He's a risky guy, that Obama guy. Risky, Risky, Risky. 

John McCain's strategy, laser targeted at old white men, same as Hillary's strategy, to make Obama the Other, is working in that the media can't stop talking about why Obama is risky -- he's skinny, he's uppity, he's arrogant, he's a celebrity, he's young. He's black. Black. Black. Black.

I know that the republicans are playing on the fears of the folks who live in the Appalachian regions and they may know they're being played. They just need a good excuse not to vote for the black man. Too skinny, they'll take it. Too much schooling. Yes, you can't have a smart man in the White House. 

But I don't think Obama is going to get their vote no matter what he does. He could give them all $1,000 and they'd turn up their noses. 

I'm not sure Obama's going to need that vote and I think their numbers are over estimated. I also think there are plenty of old white people who WILL vote for Obama (and there are old white people who aren't racist who will vote for McCain and that's respectable).

But this year is the year the youth voter will tip the election in Obama's favor. Not many in the press are talking about this because in the past, the youth talked a big game but never made it to the polls. This time is different because they are actively involved in the campaign. They are invested. 

Frankly, I'm tired of writing about the old white people who won't vote for Obama because he's black, so I think I'll stop. 

More than anything, it's getting BORING. It also deflects the light away from McCain, who is lamer than lame, even by republican standards, and getting a free ride. 

This story wraps it all up:

RCP: Some of my Chicago friends who support Sen. Barack Obama already are speaking as if his victory is a done deal. I hate to burst their bubbles, but a nagging question still haunts Obama euphoria: Why isn't he further ahead in the polls?

After all, they gush, his superbly managed campaign of "hope" and "change" seems to be humming along, as strong as the euro against the dollar. The popularity of his rival Sen. John McCain's Republican brand is as weak as a subprime mortgage.

A CBS poll today shows some interesting results:

Working class whites (white voters with incomes less than $50K and without
a college degree) are now backing Obama – a reversal from last month.
George W. Bush won this group in both 2004 and 2000.

However, when income and education are isolated the results are a bit
different. Whites with incomes under $50K (regardless of education) back
Obama, while whites without a college degree (regardless of income) give
the edge to McCain.

Obama is Not the Black Candidate

This could be the election the younger voters come out in droves to support Obama and tip the election. The younger generation, and other Obama supporters, are more inclined to see Obama as the excellent candidate who is black -- not the black candidate.

WaPo: Defying stereotypes, the young are more engaged in this campaign than are their elders. A Pew Research Center study released this month asked voters whether they considered this year's campaign "interesting" or "dull." Among those 18 to 29, 67 percent called the campaign interesting, as did 66 percent of those 30 to 49. By contrast, 58 percent of those 50 to 64 and 52 percent of those 65 and over saw the campaign as interesting.

The increase in political interest among the young is staggering. Between 2000 and this year, the percentage of those under 30 describing the campaign as interesting was up 36 percentage points; the increase among those 65 and over was a more modest 18 points.

Could the young make a difference in Barack Obama's favor? Again, the answer is clearly yes. Age is one of the most powerful lines of division in this election. In Pew's survey, under-30s gave Obama his largest lead, 56 to 36 percent. He also led among voters ages 30 to 49 but ran behind among voters 65 and over.

Seminal: So while CNN commentators continue to be impressed by how "articulate" Obama is, America's youth see nothing remarkable in the fact of an intelligent black man taking center stage. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. and other civil rights leaders paved the way for Obama, certainly: but so did KRS-ONE, Dr. Dre, Chuck D, Nas, Jay-Z, Mos Def, Common, Talib Kweli, and Kanye West. So did Chris Rock and Dave Chappelle. So did Michael Jordan and Dennis Rodman. So did Denzel Washington, Spike Lee, Wesley Snipes, and thousands of other major figures in our culture.

I do not often care to generalize, and racism remains a potent force in this country, but on the whole young white Americans are more comfortable with racial pluralism than earlier generations were. And that doesn't just include the mass hip-hop culture that MTV beamed into our living rooms since we were children. That also includes attending schools and colleges where racial diversity is an entrenched value, traveling at high rates to foreign countries, and growing up in an atmosphere of frank discussion about race in America, from the Rodney King beating to the OJ trial to a slew of TV shows and movies that deal with race in complex ways. Just watch the show Boondocks if you don't believe me: times have changed.

So for a lot of youth, Obama is not "the black candidate." He is a candidate who is also black.

What do younger voters admire about Obama?:

Seminal: I admire Obama for his wise decision to marry Michelle. She is an intelligent, accomplished, beautiful woman.

I admire Obama because he refuses to play the politics of fear. This is no small feat post 9/11 America. McCain and the Republicans try to win elections by playing on our fears. Obama speaks to our hopes–our desire to end a misbegotten war in Iraq, our desire to rejoin the community of nations, our desire to end the failed policy of tax cuts for the wealthy, and everyone else fends for themself.

I admire Obama because he is absolutely unflappable. Show me a time when he lost his temper or lost his cool. Contrast that with John McCain, whose temper has scared the hell out of people even in his own party.

And yes, I admire Obama for his speech in 2004, for his speech when he became the nominee, for his speech in race relations, for all of his speeches. Cohen may dismiss this as just words. So was the Declaration of Independence, so was Tom Paine's Common Sense. Obama's words have inspired millions. That too is something worthy of admiration.

Young Voters Could Be Key in Pennsylvania

here's to hoping that all of the college students and 20-somethings get out and vote on tuesday. i wish i lived in pennsylvania cause i'd drive you en masse to the polls. but that doesn't seem necessary. young voters are motivated. the question is, who has the bulk of young voters? obama or clinton?

philly inquirer: Democratic strategist Neil Oxman said that most polls do not sample enough younger voters because they usually are not a factor in primaries. Obama changes the dynamic, he said.

"If all of those kids who registered come out, he could steal the election," said the Philadelphia-based Oxman, who is not working in the race. "And if everybody over 60 votes, she could blow him away. Each of them has enough voters to win this thing."

another unknown: who did all those new democrats sign up to vote for? and who did those independents and republicans switch party affiliations to vote for? these people make up about 325,000 un-polled people. then there are the "undecideds," there are about 15% of these voters who have left pollsters guessing.

philly inquirer: "The election has stabilized, with no movement among any of the big voter groups in the last week," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin and Marshall College Poll. "It's a battle of the east versus the west and a battle of defined demographics, and everybody is trying to figure out what will make the difference."

Two things that could: the 15 percent of voters who tell pollsters they remain undecided, and the roughly 325,000 newly registered Democrats in the state, a mixture of first-time voters and those switching affiliation to participate in the closed primary.

In previous races this year, undecided voters have broken toward Clinton. An estimated 24 percent of newly registered Democrats in Pennsylvania are younger than 35, a group that has overwhelmingly supported Obama.

The Apathetic Hole

people are trying to discount the youth vote as fickle. as one person put it: "They are all excited about him, and they don't have any staying power. If Obama doesn't get the nomination, do they get angry again and crawl back into their apathetic hole?"

see, it's not like that.

i think young people and others who support obama aren't necessarily party affiliated. we may be on paper because we have to be to vote. but we're not entrenched in that partisan mindset. we are looking forward to the new politics that obama offers.

if clinton is the nominee, why vote for her? just because she's the democratic nominee? i don't think so. i've based my decision on the person, not the party. it's not that i'm apathetic, but why would i vote for someone who i thought would be a bad leader? just to go along with the party? that doesn't mean anything to me.

i'm not voting for obama because he's a democrat, or the best of two democrats. i'm voting for his leadership.

The Youth Vote Goes to.... Obama

"In South Carolina, Obama drew more under-30 votes than all Republican candidates combined, according to exit polls."

Time

The Year of the Youth VoteTIME -

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Senator Claire McCaskill is the highest-ranking Democrat in Missouri, and Missouri picks Presidents. The Show-Me State has voted for the winner in 25 of the past 26 elections. This is why the contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination fought so hard for McCaskill's endorsement. As her wary advisers helped her weigh the risks and rewards of siding with powerful Hillary Clinton or charismatic Barack Obama, neutrality began to look appealingly safe.

But there's something about an 18-year-old that can't abide careful hedging and cautious steps. The Senator's daughter Maddie Esposito had seen the way her mother teared up whenever she heard Obama speak. And now it was happening again as mother and daughter sat side by side on the family-room sofa in a suburb of St. Louis, watching the results of the Iowa caucuses on TV. "You know you believe in him," Maddie admonished her damp-eyed mother. "It's time to step up." The next morning, Maddie, a college freshman home for the holidays, added a threat: "You have to do it, or I'm never talking to you again."

McCaskill endorsed Obama — a big boost in an important Super Tuesday primary state. And the story of that endorsement is the Democratic-nomination battle etched in miniature. Kids like Maddie Esposito are the muscle of Obama's army. His campaign has become the first in decades — maybe in history — to be carried so far on the backs of the young. His crushing margin of victory in Iowa came almost entirely from voters under 25 years old, and as the race moved to New Hampshire and Nevada, their votes helped him stay competitive. In South Carolina on Saturday, Jan. 26, Obama's better than 3-to-1 advantage among under-30 voters more than neutralized Clinton's narrower edge among over-65s. Now, as the candidates shift to the coast-to-coast, Dixie-to-Dakota battlefield of Feb. 5, Obama is counting on a wave of Democrats experiencing their own McCaskill moments, roused to his banner by the fervent — if sometimes vague — urgings of youth.