New Zogby and Rasmussen Polls

obama is leading in north carolina and has a slight lead (really a tie, 1 point) in indiana. zogby is a fairly reliable poll. it accurately polled pennsylvania.

zogby:
Obama leads in North Carolina by a 46% to 37% margin, with 17% either unsure or favoring someone else. In Indiana, Obama won 43% support, compared to 42% for Clinton, with the balance either favoring someone else or undecided.

The telephone surveys, conducted May 1-2, 2008, are the latest of Zogby's two-day daily tracking surveys that will continue until Tuesday. In North Carolina, 627 likely Democratic primary election voters were polled. The survey carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points. In Indiana, 629 likely voting Democratic primary voters were surveyed. That poll also carries a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points.

The telephone surveys were conducted using live operators working out of Zogby's call center in Upstate New York.

In North Carolina, Obama leads in all age groups with one exception - those age 70 and older, where the two are essentially tied. But Clinton closed the gap in some age groups, compared to yesterday's two-day tracking report.

rasmussen:
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of North Carolina’s Presidential Primary, conducted Thursday night, finds Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton 49% to 40%. Earlier this week, Obama led by fourteen, 51% to 37%. A month ago, Obama led by twenty-three percentage points.

The demographic results in North Carolina are similar to the dynamics seen nationally and in most primaries—Clinton leads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clinton leads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.

Eighty percent (80%) have followed news stories about Barack Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright. Forty-three percent (43%) believe Obama denounced Wright because he was outraged while 40% believe political convenience was the motivation. Seventy percent (70%) of Clinton supporters say Obama was politically motivated. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Obama supporters say their candidate was outraged by Wright.

Forty percent (40%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s controversial views about the United States. That figure includes 62% of Clinton voters.

Overall, 15% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters in North Carolina agree with Wright’s comments about the U.S. That figure includes 22% of Obama voters. Wright himself is viewed favorably by 15% of Likely North Carolina Primary Voters

indiana polls