Really Wrong Political Forecasts

A round up of political forecasts that didn't quite come true:

Prediction: Rick Perry will own the debates.
Prognosticator: Kinky Friedman
Date: September 5, 2011
Quote: "Unless he starts speaking in tongues, I predict Rick Perry wins the debate."
Reality: Perry was destroyed in the debates. He did almost speak in tongues, though.


Prediction: Tim Pawlenty's got this.
Prognosticator: The New York Times' Ross Douthat
Date: May 16, 2011
Quote: "In a Huckabee-Romney rematch, or a Huckabee-Romney-Daniels struggle, Pawlenty would have been in constant danger of being outflanked from both sides at once — on social issues one week, and then on the good-government-moderate flank the next. But now he has an excellent shot at a clean victory in Iowa, he’s well-positioned to pick up a lot of Huckabee’s supporters across the south (where his main competition will be Newt Gingrich), and at the end of the day, he’ll still be moderate and safe and competent-seeming enough to woo voters in the Northeast and his native Midwest. Throw in the fact that both Romney and Gingrich infuriated conservative activists this weekend by defending the idea of an individual mandate in health care, and suddenly Pawlenty has perhaps the clearest path to the Republican nomination of any major contender. Unless... somebody else emerges to outflank him from the right in Iowa."
Reality: Pawlenty dropped out in August.


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