Plouffe: Strategy Update

David Plouffe shows that there are more registered democrats and in Florida, Obama has 1.4 million base voters who didn't turn out in 2004.

It's the Electoral Map not the Polls

One of the pieces on display at Manifest Hope art gallery at the Denver Convention. 

The Obama campaign ran a brilliant strategy during the primaries. They knew it was all about amassing as many delegates as possible, in small states as much as big states, because they understood the delegate system.

Hillary's campaign ran a traditional big-state strategy and many of her supporters just didn't understand the delegate math, which is why I think, many of them have the impression that Obama stole the election. Had the best way to win been winning big states, the Obama camp would've mapped out that strategy but that wasn't the key to winning.

Now the Obama camp is all about the electoral map, not the day to day polling. They understand that the voting electorate has changed, and they are putting a high priority on registering voters and turning out their base.

Swamp: David Plouffe, one of the architects of Obama's surprise rise to the top of his party, suggests that he all but ignores the national polls. As Don Frederick, our colleague at Top of the Ticket relays the press briefing that Plouffe held, Obama's manager said:

"We don't pay attention to national polls.''

What they do pay attention to: The 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, a calculation that focuses instead on the 50-state contest, and, in the places where Obama shows the most potential for winning, the work of the campaign to spur a strong turnout of Obama voters.

Right now, the electoral map favors Obama.

Obama's Plan For The Money

Seems the strategy is to get as many new people registered as possible. As for the $22 million raised in May, what's been called meager, and the same as the amount McCain raised, I think many people were focused on the end of the primaries and saving themselves, so to speak, for the general election.

NYT: Future commercials could run on big national showcases like the Olympics in August and smaller cable networks like MTV and Black Entertainment Television that appeal to specific demographic and interest groups.

Mr. Obama is also dispatching paid staff members to all 50 states, an unusual move by the standards of modern presidential campaigns so often fought in just a contained group of contested territories.

His aides and advisers said they did not believe Obama necessarily has a serious chance of winning in many of the traditionally Republican states, but rather that he can at least draw Mr. McCain into spending time and money there while also swelling the rolls of Democratic voters and supporting other Democrats on the ballot.

His strategists are busily studying data from focus groups, magazine subscription lists and census studies. It is the beginning of an intensive door-to-door drive, using volunteers overseen by a growing staff of organizers, to reach voters using persuasive messages tailored to their individual interests through the mail, e-mail and word of mouth.

Now, free from the constraints of public financing, campaign and party officials have said that Mr. Obama’s budget for the rest of the year could be well above $300 million. But Mr. Obama’s fund-raising slowed abruptly in May, when the campaign raised $22 million, $10 million less than it had in April and an even sharper drop relative to his monthly performances earlier in the year. The decline was evidence that Mr. Obama might have to work hard to keep donations coming in at the record pace he has been setting.

Obama Needs To Stick to His Politics

as much as i want obama to give clinton a big sock in the nose, i jest, and as much as i want to shake her supporters and say: wake up? can't you see? what's wrong with you? (i know they feel the same about shaking me), what i really want is obama's style of politics, not clinton's.
it's the reason i support him and i wouldn't want him to go flying off of his game now.
clinton is obviously desperate. she knows what she's up against. sure, some people will fall for the kitchen sink. but how many? i think we're getting smarter. obama has gotten this far because he's offering something different. he's offering a new way of getting things done that isn't petty and maniacal.
do we want obama to win at all costs? or do we want to see him on day one intact?
bob herbert at NYT argues:

Whatever anger and frustration he may be feeling, he should stick to the high road. He can’t win wrestling in the mud with Hillary Clinton. That will not put Barack Obama in the White House.

Mr. Obama’s strength was his message of hope and healing, the idea that he could bring disparate groups together to work on the nation’s toughest problems. That has gotten him this far, which is much further than almost anyone expected.

He now needs an added dimension. He needs to articulate a vision. He needs to spell out to voters where he wants to take this country over the next few years, how he will alleviate the suffering of millions trapped in vicious economic circumstances and what he will do to restore the honor and prestige of the U.S. around the world. NYT

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