Obama's Long Primary Advantage

One of the advantages of this long primary process (fourteen months and counting) has been the opportunity it's provided for us to campaign and organize in all fifty states. In cities and towns across America we've seen record voter registration and participation, with many people finding their way to the political process for the first time. The end result: a radically altered electoral map that gives us the opportunity to compete across the country in November, in swing states and "red states" as well as "blue states."

Once case in point: Colorado.

In 2004, George W. Bush won the state of Colorado by less than 100,000 votes. Last winter, our grassroots supporters in the state spent months organizing, helped out at the end by field staff, multiple offices, and Barack himself. On February 5th Barack won the Colorado caucuses by a overwhelming margin, defeating Hillary Clinton 67% to 32%.

Two and a half months later, a recent Rassmussen poll shows that against Hillary Clinton, John McCain would easily carry the state right now, leading 50% to 36%. But in a head to head match-up, Barack leads McCain 46% to 43%, flipping the state and its nine electoral votes.

It's a pattern that we've seen repeat itself in states like Iowa, Oregon, Minnesota, Washington, Wisconsin and more.

And our grassroots networks that are still at work, still organizing and still contributing, helping lay the groundwork for the general election against John McCain in November.

obama is set to launch a voter registration drive once he wins the nomination. i'm sure that's no surprise to anyone.:

chicago tribune: Sen. Barack Obama's presidential campaign is planning to unveil a "massive" voter registration drive, one that will reach all 50 states and seeks to boost confidence in him as a potential general election candidate.

A senior campaign official is expected to provide details about the effort in a conference call Friday.

But the candidate himself — or his speechwriters — apparently slipped up and included a reference to the effort in an address to a union group Thursday in Chicago.

"That's why I'm so proud that today our campaign announced a massive volunteer-led voter registration drive in all 50 states to help ensure every single eligible voter takes part in this election so we can take back Washington for the American people," Obama said at the Hyatt Regency McCormick Place.

The appearance came on a day Obama was supposed to be enjoying rare time away from campaigning. Still, it afforded him a chance to spread his message in Indiana without ever setting foot there.

New Indiana Poll Puts Obama in Lead

obama has a 5 point lead in the downs poll. obama's supporters tend to be democrats, independents and some republicans. clinton's base is largely democrats.

578 registered Hoosier voters likely to participate in the May 6 Democratic primary prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton. Obama received 50% of the support and Clinton received 45%, with 5% undecided (margin of error +/- 4.2).

Clinton’s most solid support comes from the most partisan Democrats (51% Clinton to 45% Obama), with weaker Democratic identifiers, independents, and most Republicans tending to support Obama.

Obama outperforms Clinton with Indiana men (55% to 42%) while women are for Clinton (48% to 46%)--but within the margin of error.

Likely Indiana Democratic primary voters over 50 prefer Clinton to Obama (53% to 42%) while Obama leads among the voters under 50 (59% to 36%).

Meanwhile, white Democratic primary Hoosier voters also fall within the margin of error on vote preference with 48% indicating they would support Clinton and 47% who would support Obama. Obama dominates among African-Americans 78% to 17%.

The effects of income and education follow similar patterns concerning Democratic primary support. Higher educated likely Democratic primary voters support Obama while the less educated of these voters support Clinton. Clinton does relatively better than Obama among those with lower incomes, while Obama does particularly well among the highest income Hoosiers in this voting block.

Momentum: Vote Switching and Timing of Decision

As a state whose primary comes later, Indiana provides a rare opportunity to demonstrate how momentum builds for candidates following primary and caucus results. Obama has gathered more support during the primary and caucus season, but it has come later than one would expect given the string of successes he put together throughout February.

Clinton’s support has been more stable, but she also seems to have convinced many Hoosier Democrats to support her following her Ohio and Texas primary successes.

As the frontrunner coming into the nomination contest season, Hillary Clinton has enjoyed more consistent support among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana. Sixty-six percent of the 262 likely Clinton primary voters surveyed always supported Clinton. 27% of her supporters switched their vote to her from another candidate (margin of error +/- 5.9).

Of the 288 Obama supporters, 55% had always supported him and 32% of his supporters switched to him from another candidate (margin of error +/- 5.9).

Interestingly, despite being Obama’s worst period in the Democratic nomination season, 29% of Obama’s Indiana supporters decided to vote for him after the early-March Ohio and Texas primaries. Fourteen percent of Obama supporters decided after the February 5 Super Tuesday contests, and 12% after the early-January Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Four of ten Obama supporters decided before the nomination primaries and caucuses began.

The patterns are very similar for Hillary Clinton, with slightly more of her supporters deciding before the primary and caucus season (47%). Thirteen percent decided after Iowa and New Hampshire, 10% after Super Tuesday, and 26% after the Ohio and Texas contests of March 4.

General Election Head-to-Head Results in Indiana

For likely registered November voters deciding between John McCain and Barack Obama, McCain received 51% to Barack Obama’s 44%, with 5% undecided (+/- 2.8 margin of error). McCain would best Hillary Clinton 53% to 42% if registered likely Hoosier general election voters were to have voted April 14 - April 16. 5% remain undecided in that race.

This is a mixed result for Democrats in a state that votes very Republican in presidential elections. While behind, the two Democrats are much closer at this point to the lukewarm 47% to 41.5% victory Bob Dole registered against Bill Clinton in the state in 1996 than the George Bush Indiana defeat of John Kerry 60% to 39% in 2004 or Bush’s 57% to 41% victory over Al Gore in 2000.

The two Democrats attract different types of voters relative to Senator McCain. Clinton’s support relies on traditional Democrats while Obama appeals slightly less to Democrats and more to independents and even some Republicans. Specifically, Hillary Clinton gets 83% of strong Democrats compared to 74% of strong Democrats for Obama, with 12% of strong Democrats going to McCain if Clinton is the nominee and 19% of strong Democrats going to McCain if Obama is the nominee. These latter groups are likely ardent supporters of the opposing candidate who may swing back to the party for the general election following the sharp nomination battles.
more

Obama Gaining in Pennsylvania

quinnipiac: Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 - 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 - 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 - 41 percent for her today. A look at other groups shows:
White voters for Clinton 56 - 38 percent, down from 59 - 34 percent last week.
Black voters back Obama 75 - 17 percent, compared to 73 - 11 percent.
Men are for Obama 48 - 44 percent, compared to a 46 - 46 percent tie last week.
Voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 40, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 38 percent.

Obama Leads in Oregon

for what it's worth, a new surveyUSA poll shows (polls are good and bad, they measure and influence, in this case it's good and influential) obama with a 10 lead over hillary in oregon.

The first major poll of the Oregon Democratic primary is out. SurveyUSA has Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton, 52% to 42%. Obama is expected to win Oregon and these numbers are in line with what is expected. With him holding a double digit lead with over a month to go, he shouldn't have too hard a time expanding that lead (or at least sustaining it) once he actually starts paying attention to the state (let's keep in mind that he trends upward once he starts campaigning in a state aggressively). Of course, this is all assuming that the race is still going on when Oregon rolls around. Clinton could withdraw as early as the end of April (if she loses Pennsylvania which remains unlikely at this point) or after May 6th when she is expected to lose North Carolina and may lose Indiana as well.

The reason why polls like this matter though is they establish Clinton's "momentum" as a myth.