Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Local Politics Ruled Elections

People have been reading too much into yesterday's elections. Today is political pundit Happy Day. Michael Steele says that it means republicans are transcendent. Ha! That's a good one. Others say voters served a message on Obama. Don't think so.
The only real loser was Sarah Palin, who inserted herself into the NY 23 race and popped out a democrat. Nate Silver says the night went to local politics:
Hoffman, indeed, had some initial success. The original Republican nominee, Dede Scozzafava, dropped out of the race after polling showed her trailing both Hoffman and Owens. But when push came to shove, Hoffman lost.
Why? Because those activists -- however well-meaning they might have been -- misunderstood the district. The 23rd is a Republican district, but it is not a particularly conservative one, having split its vote between Barack Obama and the moderate Republican John McHugh last November.
If Nancy Pelosi is regarded suspiciously in the 23rd, so are Sarah Palin and Fred Thompson, who cut commercials and robocalls on behalf of Hoffman. What the voters there wanted was a candidate who understood them. Owens -- superior to Hoffman in his command of local issues -- provided the best approximation. CNN
As for Jon Corzine, the guy was a dud:
Alternatively, consider the outcome in New Jersey, where Republican Chris Christie knocked off incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine. This election is being touted as a referendum on Obama, who took a risk -- a bad one, indeed -- by campaigning on behalf of Corzine.
But Obama was the least of Corzine's problems: Voters in Tuesday's election approved of Obama's performance 57 percent to 43 percent, according to exit polling. It was Corzine they didn't like; 27 percent of the voters who approved of Obama nevertheless found someone other than the Democratic incumbent to vote for. Read more at CNN
My contention is that the elections were a referendum on party politics. People like Obama well enough, despite all the focus on the haters, so Obama didn't have anything to do with who people voted for. Corzine and Deeds may have lost bigger without him. But people aren't going to vote for a democrat just because he or she is a democrat. If you're a politician and you're not doing your job, you're going to be ousted because Americans are getting impatient with politicians.