obama has at least one thing in his favor and that is the approximate 325,000 people who are new democrats or have switched parties to vote. these people haven't been included in polling.
recent polls suggest hillary is gaining.
a new rasmussen poll puts her ahead by 5 percentage points, 49 to 44.
an insider advantage poll puts her ahead by 10 points, 49 to 39, with 12% still undecided. that's a lot of undecideds.
the poll that uses the largest sample of people, about 2,300, puts obama ahead by 3 points, 49 to 46. about 76% of the respondents were white, and the bulk of them were women, and most were in the age range of 35 -65. that's all good for obama.
but as polls go, they're not always reliable and as i stated at the start, there are hundreds of thousands unpolled.
terence samuel says obama will win by a sniggly point because of bob case and obama stands for change:
After all sound and fury, the race in Pennsylvania will come down to the strength of get- out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, and I think Obama's campaign's organizational advantages will be enough to push him past Clinton by almost two percentage points. He's got money, he's got energy and enthusiasm (despite his debate performance on Tuesday), and he's got Philadelphia and its suburbs
Broadly speaking, presidential elections are almost always decided by what and who Americans think best suits the moment. After all the wins and losses, after all the gaffes, the deceptions, and the rare moments of inspiration, Obama, is simply closer to the mood of the country than either Clinton or McCain.
Obama is selling change. Both of his opponents are selling the virtues of experience, but voters, fed up with the way things have been going, view experience as more of a problem than a solution.
.....
The importance of the Casey's endorsement of Obama is hard to overstate. In part that's because Pennsylvania's junior senator is as daring as a piece of Lackawanna anthracite coal and is seen as unwilling or unable to play cynical political games. What's more, he is an able counterbalance to Clinton's two biggest supporters -- the affably pugnacious Gov. Ed. Rendell, and Philadelphia's African American Mayor Michael Nutter.
Casey is also exactly kind of conservative, Catholic, blue-collar Democrat that Obama is supposed to have the most trouble attracting. He needs Casey's help all the more now that some of these voters think that he sees them as clinging to guns and religion out of a sense of economic frustration. In a new ad for Obama, Casey makes the election clearly about the economy, declaring on camera that "in towns like yours and mine, families are struggling with bills they can't afford and jobs moving away. It has to change -- but it won't until we change Washington."
clinton needs blowout numbers, but brace yourselves obama supporters, she may pull off a double digit win, which will give her more time to make us miserable:
bloomerg: After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.
Clinton needs ``blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. ``The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.''
A popular-vote victory is vital to Clinton's chances because she is likely to end the primaries still trailing Obama, 46, in the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
According to an unofficial tally by the Associated Press, Obama currently leads by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 among pledged delegates and those superdelegates -- elected and party officials who get an automatic vote on the nomination -- who have indicated a preference. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination.
One or the Other
``I am a big believer that she needs either one, the popular or the delegate count,'' in order to make a case for why she should be the nominee, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a Clinton backer, said in an interview.
how about those superdelegates? some of them in pennsylvania are feeling sorry they went with clinton so early in the race. listen to that story at npr.
an overview in usa today
video from the philly inquirer on obama's final sunday.
obama goes door to door
obama has two times the cash, less debt than hillary
