Why Vote for Obama: Reason No. 11

The 11th in a series on Reasons to vote for Obama. 11 more days.

The Race is Over Obama Won

poster at obamaartreport.com

I'm done with McCain for the day. He and Palin crawled under my skin today. 
Anyway, here's a story that you'll want to read from head to toe:

TNR: Perpetually fretting Democrats will not want to accept it. The campaigns themselves can't afford to believe it. Many journalists know it but can't say it. And there will certainly be some twists and turns along the way. But take it to a well capitalized bank: Bill Ayers isn't going to save John McCain. The race is over.

John McCain's candidacy is as much a casualty of Wall Street as Lehman or Merrill. Like those once vibrant institutions, McCain's collapse was stunning and quick. One minute you are a well-respected brand. The next you are yelling at the messengers of your demise as all around you the numbers start blinking red and stop adding up.

McCain's road was difficult to begin with: the President of his party has had record-low approval ratings for two years and the number of Americans who say the country is heading in the wrong direction is stratospheric. He also had the misfortune to be pitted against an exceptional candidate running an extremely well-executed campaign.

Still, before Wall Street's collapse Senator McCain was ahead. His approval ratings remained high, his VP pick had generated excitement and interest, and his campaign operatives were capable, on any given day, of winning news cycles and giving their opponents fits. And then the underpinnings of American capitalism begin to sink -- and with them sunk McCain.

Let that make you feel good but don't take it for granted. Vote like you mean it and if you can, sign up to be a poll worker. The republicans are already trying to steal the election. 

Most Believe Obama Will Win

200,000 turn out in Germany

AFP: A majority of Americans believe that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will win the presidential election against Republican hopeful John McCain in November, a Fox News poll showed Thursday.
While 51 percent say Obama, who is vying to become the first African American president, will win the election, only 27 percent are betting on a McCain victory.
Voters registered as Democrats are more confident about their candidate's chances than their Republican peers: 71 percent of Democrats see Obama winning on November 4 while 51 percent of Republicans believe McCain will win.
One in four Republicans think that Obama, a senator from Illinois, will succeed US President George W. Bush.
A month ago, 47 percent of Americans believed that Obama, 46, would win the election compared to 32 percent for McCain, a 71-year-old Arizona senator.
Even though many Americans are predicting an Obama victory, the race remains tight.

The Pennsylvania Lowdown

the day before and we're swamped with what could be and where things stand.
obama has at least one thing in his favor and that is the approximate 325,000 people who are new democrats or have switched parties to vote. these people haven't been included in polling.
recent polls suggest hillary is gaining.
a new rasmussen poll puts her ahead by 5 percentage points, 49 to 44.
an insider advantage poll puts her ahead by 10 points, 49 to 39, with 12% still undecided. that's a lot of undecideds.
the poll that uses the largest sample of people, about 2,300, puts obama ahead by 3 points, 49 to 46. about 76% of the respondents were white, and the bulk of them were women, and most were in the age range of 35 -65. that's all good for obama.
but as polls go, they're not always reliable and as i stated at the start, there are hundreds of thousands unpolled.

terence samuel says obama will win by a sniggly point because of bob case and obama stands for change:

After all sound and fury, the race in Pennsylvania will come down to the strength of get- out-the-vote (GOTV) operations, and I think Obama's campaign's organizational advantages will be enough to push him past Clinton by almost two percentage points. He's got money, he's got energy and enthusiasm (despite his debate performance on Tuesday), and he's got Philadelphia and its suburbs

Broadly speaking, presidential elections are almost always decided by what and who Americans think best suits the moment. After all the wins and losses, after all the gaffes, the deceptions, and the rare moments of inspiration, Obama, is simply closer to the mood of the country than either Clinton or McCain.

Obama is selling change. Both of his opponents are selling the virtues of experience, but voters, fed up with the way things have been going, view experience as more of a problem than a solution.
.....

The importance of the Casey's endorsement of Obama is hard to overstate. In part that's because Pennsylvania's junior senator is as daring as a piece of Lackawanna anthracite coal and is seen as unwilling or unable to play cynical political games. What's more, he is an able counterbalance to Clinton's two biggest supporters -- the affably pugnacious Gov. Ed. Rendell, and Philadelphia's African American Mayor Michael Nutter.

Casey is also exactly kind of conservative, Catholic, blue-collar Democrat that Obama is supposed to have the most trouble attracting. He needs Casey's help all the more now that some of these voters think that he sees them as clinging to guns and religion out of a sense of economic frustration. In a new ad for Obama, Casey makes the election clearly about the economy, declaring on camera that "in towns like yours and mine, families are struggling with bills they can't afford and jobs moving away. It has to change -- but it won't until we change Washington."

clinton needs blowout numbers, but brace yourselves obama supporters, she may pull off a double digit win, which will give her more time to make us miserable:

bloomerg: After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him.

Clinton needs ``blowout numbers,'' says Peter Fenn, a Democratic consultant who isn't affiliated with either campaign. ``The wheels would have to come off the Obama bus, and the engine would have to blow.''

A popular-vote victory is vital to Clinton's chances because she is likely to end the primaries still trailing Obama, 46, in the race for delegates to the Democratic National Convention.

According to an unofficial tally by the Associated Press, Obama currently leads by a margin of 1,645 to 1,504 among pledged delegates and those superdelegates -- elected and party officials who get an automatic vote on the nomination -- who have indicated a preference. It will take 2,025 delegates to win the nomination.

One or the Other

``I am a big believer that she needs either one, the popular or the delegate count,'' in order to make a case for why she should be the nominee, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a Clinton backer, said in an interview.

how about those superdelegates? some of them in pennsylvania are feeling sorry they went with clinton so early in the race. listen to that story at npr.

an overview in usa today
video from the philly inquirer on obama's final sunday.
obama goes door to door
obama has two times the cash, less debt than hillary

Why Obama is Going to Win

If there were one reason, it would be younger people are rallying to Obama. The youth vote will put him over the top.
Another: Obama Obama says Yes We Can. McCain: Yes You Can.
Know Your Obama
Obama: the Un-Beholden President
Historians for Obama Everything Barack Obama
Blueprint for change

Obama’s Advisers
Obama’s Team
Obama’s Foreign Policy Brain Trust

Obama artwork
Yes We Can Lyrics
Shirts and Artwork Downloads