On the Minds of Superdelegates 8

new mexico governor bill richardson endorsed obama in a heartfelt speech today and with that obama has another superdelegate. that's 18 since march 3 for obama (see my sidebar) and 9 for clinton. obama leads in popular vote by 700,000 and states won, 30 to 14, and delgates by 155.
that takes care of that. now here is the 8th in my series of 'what's on the minds of superdelegates?'

superdelegates hold a lot of power and there is reason to be wary of them. many don't care about delegates, popular vote, who their districts voted for. many won't do the right thing. we need to know who they are.

two supers warn supers not to override delegates:

Nancy Pelosi's weekend warning to superdelegates not to vote differently than those elected in primaries was seconded today by former Colorado Gov. Roy Romer, a superdelegate and former Democratic Party boss.

"The ultimate issue is who has the most delegates," Romer told reporters at a breakfast meeting today. He remains uncommitted, though he had favorable words for Sen. Barack Obama's recent speech on race and Obama's experience as a former state senator. While he said that he's open to a miniprimary in June among Democratic Party superdelegates, he predicted that the remaining primaries will deliver a delegate winner.

look out for these four guys:

Pennsylvania Rep. John P. Murtha's endorsement of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton yesterday marked her first big superdelegate pick-up since the March 4 primaries. But the biggest endorsement value of Murtha, whose Johnstown-based district won't yield many Democratic votes for either candidate, may be in the power he commands among a handful of acolytes in the state's delegation. He could play a pivotal role in bringing along more Clinton supporters among the all-important superdelegates.

Three other Pennsylvania Democrats who are devout Murtha supporters -- Reps. Robert Brady, Michael Doyle and Tim Holden -- have also been undeclared so far in the presidential campaign. Murtha's support for Clinton makes it possible all three superdelegates could line up behind the dean of their state delegation.

Brady is a local party boss in Philadelphia and Doyle a key player in Pittsburgh-area politics. Holden represents the exurbs of Philadelphia, stretching from Reading to parts of York.

clinton backer doesn't care about delegates:

In February, Steed's name appeared on Hillary Clinton's website as a part of 150 Maryland State Democratic leaders who endorsed her. He said his status as a Clinton superdelegate still "remains strong" and won't change.

Steed made his decision to support Hillary Clinton in late 2007. He chose her, he said, for "her depth of experience, her intelligence and for her ability to get things done that no other candidate running has exhibited, especially in the Senate."

Steed said his decision was informed by the "extraordinary efforts" Clinton has made to represent and to win the support of heavily Republican areas in upstate New York. He also cited the high opinion that several Pentagon generals and admirals have expressed to him about Clinton's thoughtfulness, focus and willingness to listen while serving on the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Steed does not agree that the candidate with the most pledged delegates at the end of the primary season should be the eventual nominee.

"That's not how the system was set up," he said. He believes that the undecided delegates can certainly chose that as a personal criterion, but that each should make a "thoughtful, moral decision."

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4
On the Minds of Superdelegates 5
On the Minds of Superdelegates 6
Context to Pastor Wright’s Sermon
Truth About Trinity

FoxAttacks.com Fights Fox

On the Minds of Superdelegates 7

this is the seventh in my series of "what's on the minds of superdelegates?" this one is action packed.

supers will decide the race. in fact, they were invented in the 1980s as a way to override the will of the people.

supers seem to be leaning toward obama because of the new voters that he's brought to the table. see my superdelegate tally for clinton and obama in my sidebar.

interestingly, the idea has been floated to have the supers meet in june to select a candidate. but democratic national committee chairman howard dean doesn't like the idea.

WSJ:Yesterday, in an opinion piece in the New York Times, Gov. Bredesen floated a proposal for the superdelegates to meet in June, after the final nominating contest, to hear from both candidates and commit to one then. Otherwise, he argues, their battle will rage through the summer to the nationally televised convention, and leave the fractured party just two months to unite before November. He says the candidate who looked to have fewer delegates -- combining superdelegates and delegates won in the primaries and caucuses -- would come under pressure to step aside.

Clinton and Obama have been noncommittal. He says he also spoke with former Vice President Al Gore, another uncommitted superdelegate, and acknowledged that Mr. Gore, among others, pointed out the difficulty of pulling off a June conclave.

here's one who's trying to pretend he's uncommited but he's an obvious clinton supporter.

Superdelegates are watching to see whether the senator's oratory will assuage white voters outraged at Internet videos showing the Rev. Jeremiah Wright Jr. suggesting that America be damned for its treatment of blacks. Separately, many worry that black voters will be outraged by a sense that Sen. Obama is being unfairly judged.

The superdelegates attempt to look at electability, and there is still a lot of water to go over the dam on that subject before most of them have to commit" at the convention, Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, who is uncommitted, said in an interview yesterday. "Among the rank-and-file, persuadable middle of the road, I think the guy is a problem for Sen. Obama. It kind of reminds people of some of the wars in the past."

here's a definite obama supporter:

More than the average voter, the 795 superdelegates -- Democratic governors, House and Senate members and party officers nationwide -- are sensitive to calculations about a nominee's electability. Their own elections, and those of their party brethren down the ballot, could ride on the coattails of the presidential standard-bearer. Several hundred of these delegates remain uncommitted.

But most would prefer Sen. Obama to Sen. Clinton, Democrats widely agree. He has attracted record numbers of new voters -- especially younger ones, African-Americans and independents. Sen. Clinton, they fear, would lose many of those voters and, worse, drive more Republicans to the polls just to vote against her.

"Superdelegates tend to blow with the wind, and we don't know which way the wind is blowing," says Rep. Jim Cooper of Tennessee, an Obama supporter. "But superdelegates know two things," he added, "only one candidate in modern times," Sen. Obama, has so energized the younger generation as well as built so large a donor base.

kentucky governor is feeling the heat:

Beshear is one of the eight known Kentucky superdelegates. The state party will select a ninth in June.

"I've traded calls with Hillary Clinton," Beshear said last week. "We haven't connected up yet. And I understand Barack Obama's going to be calling."

Some of Beshear's Democratic colleagues in statehouses around the country also have been urging the governor to pick a side, he said.

here's one who went with clinton but his district liked obama:

Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena, endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton for the Democratic Presidential nomination back in January. As a superdelegate, Thompson's support was pledged to Clinton.

Results from the February California Primary, however, shows that Thompson's District voted for Barack Obama rather than Clinton.

a possible attack by clinton:

Chris Van Hollen, a congressman from Maryland who has remained neutral because he is the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, argues that superdelegates should not overturn the will of elected delegates unless “some totally unpredictable event”, like a scandal, renders the leading candidate unelectable. Mrs Clinton's supporters may try to argue that the Jeremiah Wright affair does just that. The Daily Kos, a multi-author lefty blog, accuses Mrs Clinton of “fomenting civil war” among Democrats and plotting a “coup by superdelegate”. If that happens, the backlash from Mr Obama's supporters could be fearful.

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4
On the Minds of Superdelegates 5
On the Minds of Superdelegates 6

Meet Jason the 21 Year Old Superdelegate

too young to be a superdelegate? nah. but jason's age brings up the question, just how do you get to be a super anyway. i'll look into that.

Meet Jason Rae. He's 21, a junior at Marquette University, loves Netflix and college basketball. And along with President Clinton and Governor Rendell, he'll be casting his vote as a superdelegate at the Democratic National Convention this August.

Yes, you read that correctly - he's a 21-year-old superdelegate, the youngest of them all, and his vote will be equal in value to that of some 15,000 average-Joe voters like you and me.

Superdelegates - for those who haven't caught wind of the media maelstrom - are the 795 "unpledged" delegates to the nominating convention who'll make their own independent decisions about whom to support. The remaining 3,253 delegates are "pledged," their votes dictated by the results of each state's primary or caucus.

Because of the nail-biting closeness of this year's Democratic primary race, superdelegates will play a larger role than ever before in determining the nominee. Since unpledged delegates like Jason aren't required to cast their votes until the August convention, and it's mathematically impossible for either candidate to secure the necessary 2,025 delegates through pledged ones alone, superdelegates will likely have the final say.

Pundits and voters have united to decry the injustice of this system, fearing that after the people have spoken, the superdelegates - perhaps clad in superheroes' capes - will swoop in and steal the election. The loudest criers hail from the Obama camp, for the Illinois senator is the probable victim in this scenario. It is he who leads Senator Clinton in pledged delegates, but trails in superdelegates. And it is she who carries the reputation of political operator, adept at conducting backroom trades to seduce the supers.

The notion that 795 elites of the Washington establishment might handpick the Democratic nominee is certainly troublesome. An Obama girl myself, I'm especially disturbed that the power of the Clinton machinery might trump that of the populace's vote.

But after a conversation with Jason Rae and a peak into the secret life of a superdelegate, I came to believe that perhaps my fears are unfounded. Instead of deserving our holier-than-thou, power-to-the-people condemnation, the superdelegates might actually constitute one of the more democratic aspects of our nomination process.

Consider this superdelegate's story: As a politically interested 17-year-old, Jason decided to advance his role in our democracy and run for a spot on Wisconsin's Democratic National Committee. He gathered together a few hundred of his closet friends, hand-painted signs with the slogan, "A RAE of Hope for the Future," and managed to defeat two veteran Dems to become the DNC's youngest member.

Along with Democratic senators, representatives, governors, presidents, and party leaders, DNC members are automatic superdelegates.

"I wanted to ensure that my generation of voters had a voice at the national table," Jason explained.

This Wisconsin native has been spending the last several months lunching and chatting with the likes of President Clinton, Senator Obama, Chelsea Clinton and Senator Kerry about the prospects of the candidates.

"Each individual was able to give me valuable insight on how the campaign was going," he told me.

Instead of political wheeling-and-dealing, Jason engaged in meaningful dialogue with the campaigns, taking advantage of the opportunity to ask questions about the candidates' strengths and weaknesses and glean the information he required to make an informed decision.

"I never once felt as though the campaigns were putting pressure on me to vote for their candidate," he recalled. "They were encouraging me along the way, but never was it in a way that made me feel uncomfortable."

While it may be presumptuous to assume that all interplay between superdelegates and campaigns is this benign, Jason's experience sheds new light on the process. more

Obama's Superdelegate Momentum

demconwatch keeps track of superdelegates when they endorse, switch endorsements, drop out (eliot spitzer), take a coffee break (i kid) and i use that information to keep my own tally. since march 3, obama has gained 15 supers, including one today, according to my sidebar tally (i update it when it changes). clinton has lost 2 and gained 7.
here's more superdelegate news from bloomberg:

Both sides agree her chance to win the nomination rests on winning a significant majority of superdelegates because Obama is likely to maintain a lead of at least 150 pledged delegates - - those won in primaries and caucuses -- after the last contest is finished. If he does, Clinton, 60, would have to snag more than 70 percent of the remaining 334 or so superdelegates.

Clinton also has suffered defections, notably Georgia Representative John Lewis, a prominent civil-rights leader and early backer of the New York senator, who switched to Obama.

Underlying the movement to Obama, 46, is some politicians' calculation that he'll be the strongest candidate to face Republican Senator John McCain in November.

``All along he has been the one person McCain does not want to run against and that is still true,'' said Senator Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat who endorsed Obama last month.

.........

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska said Obama, unlike Clinton, stands a chance of winning at least part of his state, which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964 and is one of two states that award some presidential electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all.

``Obama has coattails in Nebraska,'' said Nelson, who endorsed his Senate colleague two months ago. ``Our internal polls show he can win one, possibly two, congressional districts.''

.........

The same holds true in Ohio, which Clinton won, and Pennsylvania, where voter surveys say she is leading in the April 22 primary. Polls show Obama does as well or better than Clinton against McCain in those crucial swing states.

In Iowa, a February Des Moines Register poll showed Obama beating McCain 53 percent to 36 percent, while McCain beat Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.

That is one of the reasons he's won support from governors in Republican-leaning states, including Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Iowa's Chet Culver.

``It comes down to electability in red states like Iowa,'' Culver said this week.

Among pledged delegates, Obama has 1,390 to Clinton's 1,248, AP's unofficial estimate shows. A total of 2,025 delegates is needed for the nomination.

Even if Clinton scores a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, Obama can make that up with wins in smaller states such as North Carolina and South Dakota, which vote later.

obama has more support from congress:

Obama’s advantage over Clinton would be most pronounced in the Southern and Western states President Bush carried in 2000 and 2004, say lawmakers interviewed by The Hill. In total, 32 members of Congress from these “red states” have endorsed Obama. Twenty-two lawmakers from those states have backed Clinton.

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4

Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy
Clinton Must Win Pennsylvania
It’s Still Over for Clinton

Wisconsin Superdelegate Endorses Obama

obama's gained twice as many supers as clinton since march 3.
from barackobama.com

Today Wisconsin superdelegate Melissa Schroeder endorsed Barack Obama for president, citing his unique ability to stand up to the special interests and unite all Americans to bring about real, meaningful change.
Melissa Schroeder said: “After much consideration, I have decided to endorse Senator Barack Obama. My decision came down to electability and who I felt would do a better job of unifying this country for a common purpose. Obama's message of hope and change has touched millions of voters in a way that I haven't seen since the late 1960's. People from every walk of life, young and the not so young, Democrats, Independents and some Republicans, are all rallying around a belief that change can happen if we want it bad enough. With Obama as our nominee, I am confident that this November we will increase our majority in the House and Senate and elect a Democrat to the White House.”

Who Can Beat McCain?

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4

Superdelegates To Decide Race

Up to date delegate tracker

that's according to today's analysis by the NYT.

the story says that obama won delegates in states where bush was strong in 2004 and that the race will be decided by superdelegates.

unless obama gets 81% of the pledged delegates (clinton would need 91%), the superdelegates will decide.

then... in the icky world of super duper delegates, this story from the atlantic journal constitution, says just because a superdelegate endorsed someone doesn't mean they'll actually cast a ballot for them. check this out:

Meanwhile, Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond told the Atlanta
Journal-Constitution on Friday that news of Scott's switch and the confusion
surrounding Lewis' position has not affected his own standing. But, he said, his endorsement of Clinton does not necessarily mean he'll cast a superdelegate ballot for her in August.

"I endorsed her in the primary and I stand by that endorsement," Thurmond said.

But there are two issues at work, he said: endorsements and superdelegate ballots. They are not necessarily the same thing, he said.

Being a superdelegate, Thurmond said, "means you have to pick the candidate that will best represent the party in the general election, irrespective of who you may have endorsed or may have supported during the primary and caucus process."

but that's just one superdelegate's opinion, which is why superdelegates deciding the race is a bad thing. will they stick to their endorsements or will they switch to the candidate with the popular vote and the most states?

update: feb. 16, superdelegates appear like they'll try to do the right thing. al gore to stay mum for now.

PBS delegate tracker

here are recent adds from this terrific blog, which is tracking delegates, superdelegates and endorsements.

2-13-08 - Added DNC Mary Ellen Early (CA) , Cecil Benjamin (VI) for Obama- Added DNC Yvonne Kennedy (AL) , DNC Randy Kelley (AL) for Clinton- Added DNC Raymond Jordan (MA), DNC David O'Brien (MA), DNC John Walsh (MA) and DNC Paul Kirk (MA) for Obama- Added DNC Debra DeLee (MA) and DNC Gus Bickford (MA) for Clinton- Added DNC Joyce Cusack (FL) for Obama- Added DNC Evelyn Richardson (PA), DNC Richard Port (HI) and DNC Chuck Mohlke FL) for Clinton- Added Gov. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá (PR) for Obama- Added DNC Nicholas Nemec (SD) and DNC David Wilhelm (OH) for Obama. (Wilhelm had been (IL)).-Added DNC Ian Carleton (VT) for Obama- Removed DNC Mark Schauer (MI) (Clinton) Not a superdelegate.2-14-08 - Added DNC Will Cheek (TN) for Obama- Added DNC Jimmie Farris (TN) for Clinton- Added DNC Marcel Groen (PA) for Clinton- Added DNC Christine "Roz" Samuels (NJ) for Obama. Samuels switched from Clinton to uncommitted last week.- Added DNC Ed Tinsley (MT) for Obama- Switched Rep. David Scott (GA) from Clinton to Obama- Switched Rep. John Lewis (GA) from Clinton to Obama2-15-08 - Added DNC Ruth Rudy (PA) for Clinton- Added DNC Ian Murray (PA) for Clinton- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that John Lewis' office is denying reports that he has switched to Obama. We will move him back to the non-endorse list until this is sorted out.- Added Rep. Brian Baird (WA) , Dr. Celita Arroyo de Roques (PR) for Obama- DNC Sarah Swisher (IA) switches endorsements again. This time going from Clinton to Obama.- Added DNC Jack Billion (SD) and DNC Sharon Stroschein (SD) for Obama- Added DNC Marianne Spraggins (NY) for Obama- Added DNC John Davies (AK) for Obama2-15-08 - Added Marie Prezioso (WV) for ClintonAdded Mike Panetta (DC)# for Obama. Panetta, DC Statehood Representative, is an automatic add-on superdelegate from DC.

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