How the Russian Georgian Conflict Turned Messy

Apparently, Russia is now taking missiles into South Osettia.
Some excellent reporting by the NYT that shows there's plenty of blame to be spread around.
Georgia was led to believe that the US was going to engage militarily. Bush got too chummy with Georgian president Mikeil Saakashvili. Disagreements within the Bush administration on how to deal with Russia: Hawks and doves. I bet you can guess who they are. Russia pounces to get at the U.S. and Georgia. 
A failed administration, once again. Can't wait until Sen. Joe Biden, who's in Georgia now, at the request of Saakashvili, gives us the lowdown. Meanwhile, sadly, innocent people die. What an outrage. 

The story of how a 16-year, low-grade conflict over who should rule two small, mountainous regions in the Caucasus erupted into the most serious post-cold-war showdown between the United States and Russia is one of miscalculation, missed signals and overreaching, according to interviews with diplomats and senior officials in the United States, the European Union, Russia and Georgia. In many cases, the officials would speak only on the condition of anonymity.

It is also the story of how both Democrats and Republicans have misread Russia’s determination to dominate its traditional sphere of influence.

As with many foreign policy issues, this one highlighted a continuing fight within the administration. Vice President Dick Cheney and his aides and allies, who saw Georgia as a role model for their democracy promotion campaign, pushed to sell Georgia more arms, including Stinger antiaircraft missiles, so that it could defend itself against possible Russian aggression.

On the other side, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley and William J. Burns, the new under secretary of state for political affairs, argued that such a sale would provoke Russia, which would see it as arrogant meddling in its turf, the officials and diplomats said.

They describe three leaders on a collision course. Mr. Bush, rewarding Georgia for its robust troop contribution to Iraq — at 2,000, the third highest, behind the United States and Britain — promised NATO membership and its accompanying umbrella of American military support. Mr. Putin, angry at what he saw as American infringement right in his backyard, decided that Georgia was the line in the sand that the West would not be allowed to cross. And Mr. Saakashvili, unabashedly pro-American, was determined to show, once and for all, that Georgia was no longer a vassal of Russia.

With a vastly more confident Russia, flush with oil money, a booming economy and a rebuilt military no longer bogged down in Chechnya, the stars were aligned for a confrontation in which Russia could, with a quick show of force, teach a lesson to the United States, Georgia and all of the former Soviet satellites and republics seeking closer ties with the West.

“We have probably failed to understand that the Russians are really quite serious when they say, ‘We have interests and we’re going to defend them,’ ” said James Collins, United States ambassador to Russia from 1997 to 2001. “Russia does have interests, and at some point they’re going to stand up and draw lines that are not simply to be ignored.” This is a must read story

Girl On Fox: Russians Saved Her from Georgians

The U.S. is trying to blame Russia for the entire conflict and McCain has turned it into a matter of hating the Russians.

After all, it backs up what he always knew -- the Russians are just no good (according to McCain). Granted, Russia has overused its force and needs to stop but the U.S. isn't helping the situation by demonizing Russia. I don't pretend to be an expert on this but we still don't know how and why or if Georgia provoked Russia. 

Note Sen. Joe Biden's diplomatic take on the conflict below. 

In this video a host for Fox News, Bush McCain helpers, is surprised when a young girl blamed the Georgians for the bombing and thanked the Russians. 

What Sen. Joe Biden, who's on his way to Georgia, says about the conflict:

Despite Russia’s overwhelming advantage in size and firepower in its conflict with Georgia, the Kremlin may have the most to lose if the fighting there continues. It is too soon to know with certainty who was responsible for the initial outbreak of violence in South Ossetia, but the war that began there is no longer about Georgia’s breakaway regions or Russian peacekeepers.
By acting disproportionately with a full scale attack on Georgia and seeking the ouster of Georgia’s democratically elected President Mikheil Saakashvili, Moscow is jeopardizing its standing in Europe and the broader international community – and risking very real practical and political consequences.
The historic precedents in this case should trouble the Kremlin. The Red Army’s invasion of Hungary in 1956 succeeded in putting down an anti-Soviet rebellion, but simultaneously unmasked the brutality of the Soviet regime and tarnished Moscow’s reputation around the world. Similar consequences followed Soviet interventions in Czechoslovakia and Afghanistan. If Russia continues to overreach in Georgia, it might earn a small tactical victory. But it will do so at the expense of a monumental strategic defeat.
For years, Russian leaders have had a constant refrain with their American counterparts. Russia, we were told, wanted two things: international respect and to be treated as an equal by the United States. However, its leaders have evidenced few qualms about denying such treatment to nearby countries. The world has watched with concern as Russia has unleashed punitive economic and political measures against Estonia, Moldova, Ukraine, the Czech Republic, and Georgia when those countries’ actions deviated from the Kremlin’s wishes. Indeed, the single greatest obstacle to Russia’s full acceptance into the international system has been the Kremlin’s pattern of aggressive actions toward its neighbors.
Many international leaders have spoken out against these moves, but their concerns have been tempered by hope that Russia would eventually realize its extraordinary potential on the global stage. Despite the challenges in our relationship with Moscow, there has always been a strong desire to see the country’s epic traditions of achievement, creativity and sacrifice brought to serve the common good.
I have shared this ambition and in the past two months I sponsored two legislative measures intended to nudge Russia toward a closer, more constructive relationship with the United States, including action to allow for increased collaboration with Russia on nuclear energy production. Russia has also lobbied to repeal an old trade provision – the Jackson-Vanik Amendment – which currently blocks the country’s integration into the World Trade Organization. The fighting in Georgia has erased the possibility of advancing those and other legislative efforts to promote US-Russian partnership in the current Congress. It may derail them permanently if Russia does not reverse course. read more.

Obama and McCain Urge Cease Fire

But where's George? Unfortunately, he's the only one in the position to do anything. Apparently, the war is escalating.

CNN: The situation in South Ossetia escalated rapidly from Thursday night, when Georgia said it had launched an operation into the region after its unilateral cease-fire was met with artillery fire from separatists that killed 10 people, including peacekeepers and civilians. It accused Russia of backing the separatists.

McCain said he has spoken to Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili twice since the conflict began. "It is clear the situation is dire. ... I again call on the government of Russia to immediately and unconditionally withdraw its forces from the territory of Georgia."

He called the conflict a "threat to Euro-Atlantic security" and supported attempts by Western powers -- including the United States, the European Union and NATO -- to broker a cease-fire.

Obama, who also talked to Saakashvili, said that direct talks between Russia and Georgia are necessary.

"Diplomats at the highest levels from the United States, the European Union and the United Nations must become directly involved in mediating this military conflict and beginning a process to resolve the political disputes over the territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia," he said. "A genuinely neutral mediator -- not the Russian government -- must begin a process of negotiations immediately."