Republicans Had Primaries Yesterday Too

who knew.

No Way, No How Can McCain Win

Happy Voting North Carolina and Indiana

last night's indiana rally with 21,000 peeps

here's once again hoping that obama shoots some three pointers this morning. if you are voting for hillary, may you accidentally vote for obama :-)

the media is wondering whether obama will get the white working-class vote (that depends if race is as big of a factor in indiana and north carolina as pennsylvania and ohio). what i'm wondering is why can't hillary get the black vote, the younger vote and the independents?

Record Early Voting in North Carolina

more than 488,000 have voted early, nearly 13% of eligible voters.

charlotte observer: With long lines for early voting and a spike in absentee ballots, the turnout Tuesday is expected to break records because of the tough-fought Democratic presidential primary. Longtime N.C. political observers say voters are so excited by the N.C. presidential primary that as many as 1.5 million of them may vote in the Democratic primary -- way beyond the record of 961,000 in 1984.

Add the Republicans who will vote in their own primary, with its competitive race for the gubernatorial nomination, and the total votes cast could pass 2 million.

"I'd tell Clinton and Obama to hold on tight," said Ferrel Guillory, founder and director of the Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill. "They're going to have the biggest turnout ever in the state. I don't know if there's anything else they can do (to boost excitement). They've already done it, just by having this campaign."

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats running for everything from governor to county commissioner are busy reminding voters that Tuesday is also a major election for state and local offices.

In downtown Durham on Sunday, the Democratic candidates for governor both went to an interfaith event at First Presbyterian Church looking for votes as much as fellowship.

"Look at our records, not what we're saying now," said state Treasurer Richard Moore, highlighting efforts such as raising the minimum wage. "What have we done when we had the chance?"

Polls: Democratic Nomination, North Carolina, Indiana

Democratic Presidential Nomination
CBS News/NY Times
Obama 46, Clinton 38
Obama +8.0
Democratic Presidential Nomination
NBC/WSJ
Obama 46, Clinton 43
Obama +3.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary
Rasmussen
Obama 51, Clinton 37
Obama +14.0
North Carolina Democratic Primary
SurveyUSA
Obama 49, Clinton 44
Obama +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
PPP (D)
Clinton 50, Obama 42
Clinton +8.0

Latest Indiana and North Carolina Polls

keep in mind, polls are meant to influence as much as measure. for what they're worth, here are the latest polls, which are fluctuating wildly:
North Carolina Democratic Primary
Rasmussen Obama 51, Clinton 37
Obama +14.0

North Carolina Democratic Primary
SurveyUSA Obama 49, Clinton 44
Obama +5.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
PPP (D) Clinton 50, Obama 42
Clinton +8.0

Indiana Democratic Primary
Howey-Gauge Clinton 45, Obama 47
Obama +2.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Gallup Tracking Obama 46, Clinton 47
Clinton +1.0

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Rasmussen Tracking Obama 49, Clinton 41
Obama +8.0

Obama's Making Subtle Effective Changes

after watching nearly every rally and town hall, obama has made subtle changes to his town hall sessions and it seems to be working. he's doing a great job of connecting the dots for people, making his style of politics, bottom up, easier to understand.

he's taken off his jacket and rolled up his sleeves and has invited regular citizens to introduce him. the town hall in indiana yesterday with a resident relating his story of losing his job to the audience, was powerful.

wash post: He didn't put it that way exactly. But in a noteworthy shift, the Illinois senator is trying to reach working-class and middle-class voters by arguing more explicitly that the reform ideas driving his campaign can address the economic troubles that threaten their way of life. Supplanting lobbyist influence with citizen activism, uniting the country beyond petty partisan gamesmanship and bringing more candor to government, he argues, are not just abstract goals, but concrete steps that can level the playing field and lead to a more equitable distribution of the nation's wealth.

"When we push back the special interests, when we unify the country, when we speak honestly with the American people about our challenges, there's nothing we can't accomplish, nothing we can't do," he said here. "When we unify the country, we will change our economy."

Obama's Town Halls April 28

update: video at wilmington more video
these are typically live streamed at cnn.com.
no tickets are available for this one
Join Barack Obama at a Town Hall in Wilson on Monday, April 28th.

Town Hall with Barack Obama
Beddingfield High School Gymnasium
4510 Old Stantonsburg Road
Wilson, NC 27893

Monday, April 28th
Doors Open: 4:00 p.m.
Program Begins: 6:00 p.m.

The event is free and open to the public. However, space is limited and tickets are required. Admission is first-come, first-served for ticket-holders. Unfortunately this event is at capacity and tickets are no longer available.

For security reasons, do not bring bags and limit personal items. No signs or banners are permitted.

Barack Obama in Wilmington, NC
Join Barack Obama at a Town Hall in Wilmington on Monday, April 28th.Town Hall with Barack Obama
Trask Coliseum
679 Wagoner Drive
Wilmington, NC

Monday, April 28th
Doors Open: 11:00 a.m.


The event is free and open to the public. However, space is limited and tickets are required. Admission is first-come, first-served for ticket-holders.

For security reasons, do not bring bags and limit personal items. No signs or banners are permitted.

North Carolina Gives More To Obama

nc newsobserver: North Carolinians voted with their wallets last month, giving Sen. Barack Obama nearly three times as much money as they gave his rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
An analysis by the Charlotte Observer found that Obama raised more than $600,000 from North Carolinians in March, compared to just over $200,000 for Clinton.

Obama got a big boost from the Triangle, particularly donors in Durham and Chapel Hill.

He also tapped supporters of former N.C. Sen. John Edwards, who dropped his own presidential campaign in January.

north carolina pollsindiana polls

Obama's Delegate and Popular Vote Lead

it's all about the numbers.
obama's rally yesterday in philly set records. 35,000 attended.
associated press analysis says obama could end up within 100 delegates of winning the nomination (2,025 delegates are needed), which is why hillary appears more desperate:

ap Clinton leads in Pennsylvania polls in advance of Tuesday’s primary there, with 158 convention delegates at stake. A victory is essential to her chances of winning the nomination, but far from sufficient. Instead, a triumph of any magnitude would instantly establish Indiana on May 6 as her next must-win state, particularly since her aides have privately signaled that defeat is likely in North Carolina on the same day.

Overall, Obama’s delegate lead is 1,645-1,507. That masks an even larger advantage among those won in primaries and caucuses. There, his advantage is 1,414-1,250. An additional 566 delegates are at stake in the remaining contests in eight states, Guam and Puerto Rico before the primary season ends on June 3.

If Obama captures 53 percent of them, which is the share he has gained in contests to date, he would close out the primary season with at least 1,945 delegates, only 80 less than the total needed to clinch the nomination. If he and Clinton split the 566 evenly, he would still be within 100 of the number needed.

Clinton needs to win a forbidding 65 percent of the delegates in the remaining primaries to draw even with Obama in pledged delegates. It’s a share she has achieved only once so far, in Arkansas, where her husband was governor for more than a decade.

Given the unyielding delegate math, Clinton has relied for weeks on forbearance from party leaders to sustain her challenge. And they are growing restless, eager for the epic nomination battle to end so Democrats can unify for the fall campaign against John McCain and the Republicans.

obama also has the popular vote lead by 717,086 votes. that's not including the caucuses, where obama has a 213,142 lead over clinton, for an edge of 930,228 votes altogether. (thanks to a reader for that, who sourced CNN). obama: 504,420 clinton: 291,278 other: 795,698
the caucus votes tallied were for 12 states not including texas. i'm not sure if texas caucus votes have been included in any statistics.
what hillary must do to win--one of the best videos yet.