If Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination in 2012, he will appeal to Americans sense of: we are the best, we've always been the best and nothing will ever change that, his "believe in America" slogan vs. Obama's message that we have to improve ourselves and our country to move forward and "win the future."
Status quo vs reaching higher. Mitt has the easier job. No one wants to hear that there are sacrifices to be made and there is a lot of work to be done. Republicans are very good at making folks believe in either or -- that if you want to "win the future" you can't possibly "believe in America."
Frankly, I don't think Mitt has a chance of winning the nomination, ironically because his kind, conservative republicans, aren't into Mormons. Mitt will be defeated by his party's prejudices.
If the tea party has any real sway, Mike Huckabee will be the guy.
Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty could be the mouse that could. Former Utah Gov. John Huntsman could actually use his time in the Obama administration to appeal to independent voters if he could only win the republican nomination, which is a longshot. Tea party types aren't likely to accept someone who served in the Obama administration. But he may not even be running in 2012.
In conclusion, Obama wins a second term.