Thursday, October 01, 2009

Obama's Options in Afghanistan

Obama may be waiting for the Afghanistan election to be resolved, says Alex Thier, Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan at the US Institute of Peace. Normal people talk in quiet voices (not screaming talking heads) about Obama's decision:

McChrystal might change his mind about more troops:
In a lengthy telephone interview, retired Gen. James L. Jones outlined Obama's plans for reassessing the war effort. Jones noted that although the administration has seen some progress in Afghanistan and Pakistan, it remains uncertain about the outcome of President Hamid Karzai's contentious bid for reelection. Obama has scheduled at least five meetings with his national security team over the next weeks to reexamine the strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan. "Tuesday marks the start of five scheduled intensive discussions with the National Security Council, as well as field commanders and regional ambassadors, on Afghanistan," Jones said. He said he expects two of the meetings to be held the next week but stressed that there is no target date to complete the review. "I don't have a deadline in my mind. I think the most important thing is to do it right. But it is going to have a high priority in the administration to do this pretty relentlessly. We have a lot of other things on the table as well." In his Aug. 30 classified assessment, Gen. Stanley A. McChrystal, the U.S. and International Security Assistance Force commander, said he urgently needs more troops within the next year or his mission will "likely result in failure." McChrystal advocated a full counterinsurgency strategy in which the military aggressively and systematically protects the Afghan population, and will request 10,000 to 40,000 more troops to carry out his counterinsurgency mission, according to sources. The upcoming meetings will begin with the assumption that the McChrystal strategy is correct, Jones said, adding that the president will "encourage free-wheeling discussion" and that "nothing is off the table." Asked why al-Qaeda, which is comparatively safe in its current sanctuaries in Pakistan, would want to return to Afghanistan, where more than 100,000 U.S. and NATO troops are stationed, Jones said, "That's a good question. . . . This is certainly one of the questions that we will be discussing. This is one of the questions, for example, that one could come back at with General McChrystal." Jones said it remains possible that, after a decision on strategy by the president, McChrystal might change his mind about the need for more troops. "We will ask General McChrystal, and say, 'Okay, now that you've heard what our strategy is, does this affect your thinking in terms of your resources and, if so, how?' " Jones said. The Nation