Sunday, August 10, 2008

Obama is in a Good Spot

The opening of a Georgia office

Obama is on vacation, working and bodysurfing, and pundits can't write about Obama, so instead, they offer tips, as if they knew. 

The WaPo says Obama needs to return to his post-partisan roots.
Newsweek says Obama needs a shot of Bill Clinton.

They're all dredging the same question: Why isn't Obama ahead in the polls?

Charles Blow at NYT says it's racism. Yes, that has a bit to do with it. Peggy Noonan says it's Obama's newness. Yes, that too. 

But overall, it's probably too early in the race. Some people just aren't paying attention. They don't know enough about Obama to make an informed choice. All they know is what they've caught in a TV ad. 

These are people who are busy working and people who don't really pay much attention to politics until it's time to vote. For everyone stalking this election, that doesn't seem possible. 

But how about this. Look how far Obama has come in such a short amount of time. Virginia Governor Tim Kaine talked about this on Face the Nation this morning. Taken from that point of view, Obama could begin sweeping the polls in a few more weeks: 
Chicago Times: Axelrod & Co. can now include in its victory list the skinny unknown from Chicago who in one short year went from a mere 26 percent in the polls to toppling front-runner Hillary Clinton who was a full 22 points ahead of him last August.

"The national numbers mean nothing," said John Kupper, the "K" in AKP&D, last week by phone. "These are not national elections but state by state elections. We have vote goals. We know prior performance models."

In other words, this is now and always has been the sum of political component parts for the Obama operation, not a national popular election but a sophisticated, incremental accumulation of delegates in the primary, and electoral votes come November.

I'd also like to point out that the polls actually look good in states where Obama isn't supposed to be ahead. Like Colorado, Virginia, Michigan. It's even tight in Florida and Ohio.
The only places where McCain is running away, are states like Alabama. But even there, Obama has halved McCain's lead.