Obama is in a Good Spot

The opening of a Georgia office

Obama is on vacation, working and bodysurfing, and pundits can't write about Obama, so instead, they offer tips, as if they knew. 

The WaPo says Obama needs to return to his post-partisan roots.

Newsweek says Obama needs a shot of Bill Clinton.

They're all dredging the same question: Why isn't Obama ahead in the polls?

Charles Blow at NYT says it's racism. Yes, that has a bit to do with it. Peggy Noonan says it's Obama's newness. Yes, that too. 

But overall, it's probably too early in the race. Some people just aren't paying attention. They don't know enough about Obama to make an informed choice. All they know is what they've caught in a TV ad. 

These are people who are busy working and people who don't really pay much attention to politics until it's time to vote. For everyone stalking this election, that doesn't seem possible. 

But how about this. Look how far Obama has come in such a short amount of time. Virginia Governor Tim Kaine talked about this on Face the Nation this morning. Taken from that point of view, Obama could begin sweeping the polls in a few more weeks: 

Chicago Times: Axelrod & Co. can now include in its victory list the skinny unknown from Chicago who in one short year went from a mere 26 percent in the polls to toppling front-runner Hillary Clinton who was a full 22 points ahead of him last August.

"The national numbers mean nothing," said John Kupper, the "K" in AKP&D, last week by phone. "These are not national elections but state by state elections. We have vote goals. We know prior performance models."

In other words, this is now and always has been the sum of political component parts for the Obama operation, not a national popular election but a sophisticated, incremental accumulation of delegates in the primary, and electoral votes come November.

I'd also like to point out that the polls actually look good in states where Obama isn't supposed to be ahead. Like Colorado, Virginia, Michigan. It's even tight in Florida and Ohio.
The only places where McCain is running away, are states like Alabama. But even there, Obama has halved McCain's lead.

Obama's Landslide?

Well, that's what I always contend. But it can never be taken for granted. Who thought Bush would win -- twice. Not I. 

Observer: But if you ignore the national numbers and instead consider individual state polls, a realigning landslide suddenly seems to be within Obama's reach. In state after state, he's performing far better than John Kerry did in 2004, and numerous Republican bastions are seemingly in play. Consider Indiana, which George W. Bush won by 21 points in 2004 and which lasted voted for a Democrat 44 years ago—and which Obama leads by one point in the most recent survey. Or North Carolina, which Bush carried by 12 points in '04 but where the latest poll has Obama within three. And so on. In North Dakota, the race is tied. In South Dakota, Obama trails by just four. Ditto for Alaska, perhaps the most Republican state in the union. He also leads in Montana and Colorado and in all but one recent survey in Virginia.
And the trend isn't just evident in red states. In states where Kerry eked out victories last time around, polls now give Obama sizable leads. Kerry nearly fumbled away Minnesota (a three-point nail-biter), but Obama has a 17-point advantage in the most recent poll. Wisconsin and New Hampshire were photo-finishes in '04, but Obama has opened a double-digit lead there. Plus, Obama is running ahead in states that Kerry barely lost, like Iowa (by an average of seven points), New Mexico and Nevada.
On top of all this, Obama is performing as well as any Democratic nominee is supposed to in the biggest blue states—California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Massachusetts—and leads (in some cases substantially) in every recent swing state except Florida, where the average of recent polls gives McCain a three-point edge.