Monday, June 02, 2008

Obama Leads McCain in Battleground States

these are some of the so-called battleground states up for grabs: pennsylvania, michigan, ohio, virginia, wisconsin, iowa and florida.

in a matchup with obama and mccain, obama leads 4 of the 7 states and mccain has a narrow lead in virginia and an 8 point lead in florida. in a hillary and mccain matchup, mccain leads 4 of the 7 states.
obama may turn some republican states as well.
once people get to know obama, this election could be a landslide. obama's numbers always go up after a lot of campaigning.

here's some more analysis on how obama puts minnesota and iowa and maybe wisconsin into play.

If Hillary Clinton had been able to secure her party's nomination, this shift would probably not be happening. Votes in the primaries (not the caucuses) indicate that Senator Clinton would likely hold most of the "blue" states which the Democrats won in 2000 and 2004, and Senator McCain would have likely carried most of the "red states." As in those previous elections, the winner would be decided by the results in very few states, most of them in the midwest.

Senator Obama's candidacy alters the make-up of the electorate. In Minnewisowa, he shows new strength in Minnesota and Iowa (where he dramatically won the first contest of 2008), and possible weakness in Wisconsin where there are more blue collar voters than in the other two states. Nevertheless, all three states could be close in November.