Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Naysayers Raining on Parade Before It Even Starts

some people have nothing better to do than throw lemons.
let this serve as a reminder that it's still going to be a tough haul for the democrats from here on out.
boston globe: Fifty-six contests. Hundreds of millions of dollars raised and spent. More than 35 million votes cast. And, finally, five months later, one apparent winner.

Barely.

As the epic Democratic presidential primary battle finally comes to conclusion today with votes in South Dakota and Montana, Senator Barack Obama is trying to round up enough superdelegate endorsements so he can declare victory by reaching the threshold of 2,118 delegates required to seal the nomination. He was 41.5 short as of last night, with 31 at stake in today's contests.

But even as Hillary Clinton sends mixed signals about her willingness to leave the race, Obama, unlike his counterparts in recent presidential cycles, is not exactly sprinting across the finish line.

Over the last three months, the Illinois senator has won six of 14 contests, one less than the seven Clinton has won. (They essentially tied in Texas as she won the primary and he won the caucus.) A loss to Clinton in either primary today would underscore Obama's relatively weak finish and make his narrow victory over the New York senator slimmer.

"Usually there's this I-want-to-be-with-the-winner mentality, and you're not seeing that this time," said David Johnson, a Republican pollster who heads the firm Strategic Vision.

Obama and his supporters contend that victory is victory, and that the nomination contest has always been a race for delegates. But some analysts say his less-than-overwhelming recent showing signals trouble - or at least hurdles - as he begins a general election campaign against presumptive GOP nominee John McCain.

"To me it indicates he's weaker than people would hope," said Harwood McClerking, a political scientist at Ohio State University. "I was surprised that he's been regularly losing over the last month-and-a-half when people had given him the election."