that's according to today's analysis by the NYT.
the story says that obama won delegates in states where bush was strong in 2004 and that the race will be decided by superdelegates.
unless obama gets 81% of the pledged delegates (clinton would need 91%), the superdelegates will decide.
then... in the icky world of super duper delegates, this story from the atlantic journal constitution, says just because a superdelegate endorsed someone doesn't mean they'll actually cast a ballot for them. check this out:
the story says that obama won delegates in states where bush was strong in 2004 and that the race will be decided by superdelegates.
unless obama gets 81% of the pledged delegates (clinton would need 91%), the superdelegates will decide.
then... in the icky world of super duper delegates, this story from the atlantic journal constitution, says just because a superdelegate endorsed someone doesn't mean they'll actually cast a ballot for them. check this out:
Meanwhile, Georgia Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond told the Atlanta
Journal-Constitution on Friday that news of Scott's switch and the confusion
surrounding Lewis' position has not affected his own standing. But, he said, his endorsement of Clinton does not necessarily mean he'll cast a superdelegate ballot for her in August.
"I endorsed her in the primary and I stand by that endorsement," Thurmond said.
But there are two issues at work, he said: endorsements and superdelegate ballots. They are not necessarily the same thing, he said.
Being a superdelegate, Thurmond said, "means you have to pick the candidate that will best represent the party in the general election, irrespective of who you may have endorsed or may have supported during the primary and caucus process."
but that's just one superdelegate's opinion, which is why superdelegates deciding the race is a bad thing. will they stick to their endorsements or will they switch to the candidate with the popular vote and the most states?
update: feb. 16, superdelegates appear like they'll try to do the right thing. al gore to stay mum for now.
here are recent adds from this terrific blog, which is tracking delegates, superdelegates and endorsements.
2-13-08 - Added DNC Mary Ellen Early (CA) , Cecil Benjamin (VI) for Obama- Added DNC Yvonne Kennedy (AL) , DNC Randy Kelley (AL) for Clinton- Added DNC Raymond Jordan (MA), DNC David O'Brien (MA), DNC John Walsh (MA) and DNC Paul Kirk (MA) for Obama- Added DNC Debra DeLee (MA) and DNC Gus Bickford (MA) for Clinton- Added DNC Joyce Cusack (FL) for Obama- Added DNC Evelyn Richardson (PA), DNC Richard Port (HI) and DNC Chuck Mohlke FL) for Clinton- Added Gov. Aníbal Acevedo Vilá (PR) for Obama- Added DNC Nicholas Nemec (SD) and DNC David Wilhelm (OH) for Obama. (Wilhelm had been (IL)).-Added DNC Ian Carleton (VT) for Obama- Removed DNC Mark Schauer (MI) (Clinton) Not a superdelegate.2-14-08 - Added DNC Will Cheek (TN) for Obama- Added DNC Jimmie Farris (TN) for Clinton- Added DNC Marcel Groen (PA) for Clinton- Added DNC Christine "Roz" Samuels (NJ) for Obama. Samuels switched from Clinton to uncommitted last week.- Added DNC Ed Tinsley (MT) for Obama- Switched Rep. David Scott (GA) from Clinton to Obama- Switched Rep. John Lewis (GA) from Clinton to Obama2-15-08 - Added DNC Ruth Rudy (PA) for Clinton- Added DNC Ian Murray (PA) for Clinton- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that John Lewis' office is denying reports that he has switched to Obama. We will move him back to the non-endorse list until this is sorted out.- Added Rep. Brian Baird (WA) , Dr. Celita Arroyo de Roques (PR) for Obama- DNC Sarah Swisher (IA) switches endorsements again. This time going from Clinton to Obama.- Added DNC Jack Billion (SD) and DNC Sharon Stroschein (SD) for Obama- Added DNC Marianne Spraggins (NY) for Obama- Added DNC John Davies (AK) for Obama2-15-08 - Added Marie Prezioso (WV) for ClintonAdded Mike Panetta (DC)# for Obama. Panetta, DC Statehood Representative, is an automatic add-on superdelegate from DC.
