Friday, February 01, 2008

Does Obama Have To Win California?

the delegate and superdelegate addition gets real tricky according to anything that i've read. you have to be a mathmetician of sorts.
on tuesday, the states voting: New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah.

California sends 441 delegates to the convention, the largest number, so Cali is important.

this from howstuffworks, a good explainer.

the california process:

By Frank D. Russo

Many of the articles written about the California Democratic Presidential primary focus on the horse race of the statewide popular vote, and by the time the ink is dry on this article there will probably be another poll and more prognostications as to who the likely winner is going to be when the votes are counted February 5.

While the statewide vote will provide a candidate with “momentum” and a victory, what is lost with this focus is that we are electing delegates to the Democratic National Convention—and that the bulk of the action here takes place locally, in each of our state’s 53 Congressional Districts. 241 of California’s 441 delegates are elected based on the share of the vote the candidates for President receive in those districts. Only 81 delegates are elected “at-large” and go to the winner of the statewide vote.

The remaining 119 delegates are selected (not elected). These include 66 “super delegates” (Members of Congress, Democratic National Committee (DNC) Members, and a former DNC Chair). Also 48 Pledged Party Leaders / Elected Officials (PLEOs) committed to candidates who receive at least 15% of the statewide vote and apportioned by their share of the vote. Another 5 are also appointed who are “unpledged” to any candidate.

A few readers have written in, asking how one enters the process to become a delegate to the 2008 Democratic National Convention, which will not only nominate candidates for President and Vice President, but also adopt the Party’s platform. Now that forms are available through the California Democratic Party (CDP) website to run as a Congressional District delegate, here are some of the rules and suggestions on how to apply and perhaps be part of history as a delegate or alternate at the August 25-28, 2008 Denver, Colorado convention. The CDP has more information on this process on their site and will begin listing those who have applied in each Congressional District. read the rest


here's a primer.
here's another.
Session 1D will simulate the Democratic presidential delegate selection process from the Iowa caucuses (January 14, 2008) through Super Tuesday (February 5, 2008). Five states will employ caucuses (Iowa, Nevada, Alaska, Colorado and Minnesota) and 21 states will use presidential primaries (New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah). Again, a total of 2,321 Democratic delegates are at stake in Session 1D.

Please note there are two types of delegates—pledged and unpledged delegates. Pledged delegates are those who must vote for the person who wins their state caucus or primary at the Democratic National Convention in Session 3D. All of the delegates up for grabs in Session 1D are pledged delegates! Unpledged delegates are those who are free to vote for anybody they desire at the Democratic National Convention in Session 3D. These are the so-called “Super Delegates” comprised of Democratic officeholders and officials from each state. For example, Florida will have a total of 210 delegates to the Democratic National Convention in Session 3D. Of those, 185 are pledged delegates (selected in Session 1D) and 25 are the unpledged “Super Delegates” who attend Session 3D uncommitted to any presidential candidate.

In our simulation, all Democratic caucus and primary states will use proportional voting to assign delegates to our mock Democratic National Convention (Sessions 2D and 3D). For example, if Candidate X wins 33 percent of the votes in the Iowa caucus, then he or she will win 15 of Iowa’s 45 pledged delegates to the Democratic National. Recall, however, that these are pledged delegates. In Session 3D, Iowa will have a total of 60 delegates to the Democratic National Convention—45 pledged delegates and 15 unpledged or Super Delegates.