An Answer to Poll Madness

If democrats have 11 million more registered voters than republicans, how is McCain doing so well in the polls?
Here's an answer:

n a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered-voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?
Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup Tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents. read more.

Don't forget, it's all about the electoral college vote anyway.

I'd say they're also underpolling cell phone users (most likely Obama supporters) and college students (also most likely Obama supporters) and me. I've never gotten a pollster call but I'm one of those cell phone only peeps.

Republican Registration Drops in Many States

In Iowa and Nevada, there are now more registered democrats than republicans.

NYT:  In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined. In only three states — Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma — did Republican registration rise while Democratic registration fell, but the Republican increase was less than a percentage point in Kentucky and Oklahoma. Louisiana was the only state to register a gain of more than one percentage point for Republicans as Democratic numbers declined.

Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party.

.......
Among the 26 states with registration data, the percentage of those who have signed on with Democrats has risen in 15 states since 2004, and the percentage for Republicans has risen in six, according to state data. The number of registered Democrats fell in 11 states, compared with 20 states where Republican registration numbers fell.

In the 26 states and the District of Columbia where registration data were available, the total number of registered Democrats increased by 214,656, while the number of Republicans fell by 1,407,971.

Record Early Voting in North Carolina

more than 488,000 have voted early, nearly 13% of eligible voters.

charlotte observer: With long lines for early voting and a spike in absentee ballots, the turnout Tuesday is expected to break records because of the tough-fought Democratic presidential primary. Longtime N.C. political observers say voters are so excited by the N.C. presidential primary that as many as 1.5 million of them may vote in the Democratic primary -- way beyond the record of 961,000 in 1984.

Add the Republicans who will vote in their own primary, with its competitive race for the gubernatorial nomination, and the total votes cast could pass 2 million.

"I'd tell Clinton and Obama to hold on tight," said Ferrel Guillory, founder and director of the Program on Public Life at UNC Chapel Hill. "They're going to have the biggest turnout ever in the state. I don't know if there's anything else they can do (to boost excitement). They've already done it, just by having this campaign."

Meanwhile, Republicans and Democrats running for everything from governor to county commissioner are busy reminding voters that Tuesday is also a major election for state and local offices.

In downtown Durham on Sunday, the Democratic candidates for governor both went to an interfaith event at First Presbyterian Church looking for votes as much as fellowship.

"Look at our records, not what we're saying now," said state Treasurer Richard Moore, highlighting efforts such as raising the minimum wage. "What have we done when we had the chance?"