On the Minds of Superdelegates 6

this is the sixth in my series of "what's on the minds of superdelgates."
to recap: obama has gained 16 since march 3 and clinton netted 6, lost 1 (see my regularly updated sidebar tallies).
i'll also note that all the news outlets have different counts and some add supers and pledged delegates together when they really should be separate because they can't even get the pledeged delegate number straight and the superdelegate number is fluid. they can change their minds. the best site is demconwatch.
as i read what's on the mind of superdelegates, it occurs to me they're not so super at all. the obama supers say that whoever leads in delegates should be suppported and that the will of the people should not be overturned.
clinton supers say that it's all about "electability."
well, obama has the delegate lead, popular vote lead and electability.

here's one who thinks the pastor's comments might hurt obama but he's sticking with him:

"It does hurt his appeal," says Bill George, an uncommitted Pennsylvania superdelegate and the head of the state chapter of the AFL-CIO. "He may have lost those people who have some racial inner doubts about him." But Mr. George says he thinks that Sen. Obama has responded well to the controversy and that the episode won't affect his vote as a superdelegate.

here's one who says he's been getting a lot of attention:

Sen. Benjamin L. Cardin of Maryland, who is uncommitted, has been contacted twice by former President Bill Clinton, and he chats from time to time with both Obama and Hillary Clinton, along with their top surrogates.

"It's soft-sell, at best," Cardin says. The campaigns were taking his temperature "almost hourly" in the lead-up to the Ohio and Texas primaries, when he was rumored to be on the verge of an endorsement (he declines to say for whom).

this one feels slighted, not really:

Greg Pecararo of Westminster, a DNC member since 1996, said he complained in jest to a Clinton delegate tracker that he hadn't even gotten a call from the candidate's daughter, Chelsea.

"It shows where I rank," said Pecararo, who sees no reason to make a choice until the August convention and dismisses the notion that a prolonged nomination fight will help John McCain.

How Maryland and the rest of the country voted will be one factor in his decision, said Pecararo. But the rush of states to hold early primaries did "not allow the normal nomination process to play out" this year, and party rules "give us the obligation to substitute our judgment for what would have happened there."

He said it was a "philosophical question" as to whether other factors might also influence his vote, such as the interests of his trade association. Pecararo runs a lobbying arm of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association, and "if your employer came to you" and expressed an opinion for one Democrat over another, he acknowledged, "you might take that into account."

there is no rulebook

Superdelegate Dick Durbin, Obama's senatorial partner from Illinois and a vocal backer, acknowledges that superdelgates have no rulebook to follow. But he says if one candidate leads in pledged delegates and popular votes after the final primary, then the superdelegates' path is obvious.

"If the elective process has produced a clear winner, whether by five delegates or 100 delegates, then it's extremely difficult to overrule that without undermining the unity of the party," Durbin said. "Many people would say 'it just isn't fair.'"

this one likes clinton. that's all.

By contrast, the Clinton camp and some independent observers say superdelegates who look ahead and add up electoral votes in November might reasonably choose Clinton even if Obama enjoys slim leads in pledged delegates and the popular vote.

Leticia Van de Putte, a co-chair of the party's national convention and a Texas state senator, said "A lot of Democrats are wary and worried, because they saw what happened to the popular vote (in 2000). I think some superdelegates are not saying, 'Who would be the better leader?' but 'How can we win?' They'll look at the math and the Electoral College."

Clinton points to her success in big states, richest in electoral votes, as reason for those superdelegates to select her.

this one likes obama and says the general election is not about big states:

"This is not a big-state nomination process," said U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson, Jr., a superdelegate from Chicago backing Obama. "If that were the case, then one would need only to set up a campaign in the big states and ignore the rest."

Jackson said Obama can meet some of his big-state challenges by "ticket-building" -- strategically choosing his running mate.

He added a point largely borne out by primary exit polls -- one that also could help tip the superdelegate scales in Obama's direction as they calculate their party's chances in November.

"Only Barack Obama," Jackson said, "has shown the ability to reach out to both independents and Republicans."

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4

On the Minds of Superdelegates 5

Clinton Exploiting Delegate Loophole: More Dirty Tactics

what's this? unseating pledged delegates? i didn't know is could happen but apparently, clinton is working on a way.
from newsweek:

.....After the 1980 battle between Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy, her chief strategist Harold Ickes noted, the party changed a rule that required pledged delegates to stick with their candidates no matter what. The current rule, adopted in 1982, states that pledged delegates "shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them." A "good conscience" reason for a delegate to switch, Ickes told NEWSWEEK, would be if one candidate—such as, say, Clinton—was deemed more "electable." If delegates believe she has a better chance in November than Obama, Ickes said, "you bet" that would be a reason to change their vote. (He added, however, that the campaign is "focused" on winning over uncommitted superdelegates "at this point.")

Ickes's comments prompted a fierce comeback from Obama spokesman Bill Burton. "Despite repeated denials," he said, "the Clinton campaign finally admitted that they will go to any length to win." One party official, who asked for anonymity when discussing sensitive matters, said the strategy behind Clinton's invocation of the 1982 rule was clear: "They're trying to open up a window for some of the Obama people to change their minds."

okay, here's what we have so far from clinton:
1) Her latest trick, before the above mentioned, is to repeat over and over that Obama is unelectable. In a conference call with reporters, Clinton’s strategist Mark Penn said that Obama is unelectable and even if he is electable, wink, wink, they will nonetheless hammer the idea that he’s not into the psyche of the American people. Clinton’s Pennsylvania mouthpiece Gov. Ed Rendell admitted that Obama is indeed electable.

2) Clinton went around floating the idea that Obama would make a great vice president. As if. That’s another ploy to appeal to those who don’t have a strong preference but think that if they vote for Clinton, they might get a two-fer.

3) She’s tried to seat the Florida and Michigan delegates, claiming that she won. Those states made a greedy power play by moving up their primaries, breaking the Democratic National Convention rules. Both Clinton and Obama and the parties agreed not to campaign in those states after the Democratic National Convention stripped those states of delegates.

Furthermore, Obama’s name wasn’t on the Michigan ballot. As Obama said, even his six-year old daughter could figure out that awarding the delegates to Clinton wasn’t fair.

In an interview with NPR’s Steve Inskeep, Obama said: “Our position consistently has been that the Michigan and Florida delegations should be seated [at the Democratic National Convention] and that we should come up with a system that is fair to all the parties involved.”

But Clinton isn’t about fairness or what’s right. She’s about winning no matter what the cost. And that’s bad. I don’t care where she stands on policy. She’s lost on character. All I see is someone who will do and say anything to get what she wants.

4) She’s actually going to lose Texas when the final count comes in. She’s been trying to delay that.

5)she hosted uncommitted superdelegate soiree at her house. perhaps she promised some superdelegates a few favors in exchange for their votes.

6)There is evidence that it was Clinton (including her operatives) who instigated the ideas that are now fuel for the ignorant-- that Obama hates Jewish people, that he secretly hates white people and that he might be a related to terrorists because his middle name is Hussein and he once wore a turban.

In February, Newsweek said it had access to some of these Clinton camp emails:

As the race between Clinton and Obama has sharpened in recent months, other Clinton campaign operatives have sent around negative material about Obama's relations with Israel, according to e-mails obtained by NEWSWEEK. In addition to Brzezinski, the e-mails attack Obama advisers such as Rob Malley, a former Clinton negotiator at the 2000 Camp David talks who has since written articles sympathetic to the Palestinian point of view, and they raise questions about Obama's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, the former pastor at Obama's Trinity Church in Chicago.

Early on in the race, she tried this underhanded trick of pitting black people against hispanics.

let's see, have i missed anything? can anyone see a pattern here?

In short, Clinton’s actions are despicable. She’s exploiting the people in this country who don’t know any better. She’s playing on their fears, and she’s doing it at the detriment of several groups of people, Muslims, Jewish and black people. she's going to "kitchen sink" us.

Clinton has proven herself to be of poor character. Is this conniving kind of person really who we want to lead the nation?
Obama: the Un-Beholden President
Who Can Beat McCain?
Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy

Obama's Superdelegate Momentum

demconwatch keeps track of superdelegates when they endorse, switch endorsements, drop out (eliot spitzer), take a coffee break (i kid) and i use that information to keep my own tally. since march 3, obama has gained 15 supers, including one today, according to my sidebar tally (i update it when it changes). clinton has lost 2 and gained 7.
here's more superdelegate news from bloomberg:

Both sides agree her chance to win the nomination rests on winning a significant majority of superdelegates because Obama is likely to maintain a lead of at least 150 pledged delegates - - those won in primaries and caucuses -- after the last contest is finished. If he does, Clinton, 60, would have to snag more than 70 percent of the remaining 334 or so superdelegates.

Clinton also has suffered defections, notably Georgia Representative John Lewis, a prominent civil-rights leader and early backer of the New York senator, who switched to Obama.

Underlying the movement to Obama, 46, is some politicians' calculation that he'll be the strongest candidate to face Republican Senator John McCain in November.

``All along he has been the one person McCain does not want to run against and that is still true,'' said Senator Jay Rockefeller, a West Virginia Democrat who endorsed Obama last month.

.........

Senator Ben Nelson of Nebraska said Obama, unlike Clinton, stands a chance of winning at least part of his state, which has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1964 and is one of two states that award some presidential electoral votes by congressional district rather than winner-take-all.

``Obama has coattails in Nebraska,'' said Nelson, who endorsed his Senate colleague two months ago. ``Our internal polls show he can win one, possibly two, congressional districts.''

.........

The same holds true in Ohio, which Clinton won, and Pennsylvania, where voter surveys say she is leading in the April 22 primary. Polls show Obama does as well or better than Clinton against McCain in those crucial swing states.

In Iowa, a February Des Moines Register poll showed Obama beating McCain 53 percent to 36 percent, while McCain beat Clinton 49 percent to 40 percent.

That is one of the reasons he's won support from governors in Republican-leaning states, including Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas, Janet Napolitano of Arizona and Iowa's Chet Culver.

``It comes down to electability in red states like Iowa,'' Culver said this week.

Among pledged delegates, Obama has 1,390 to Clinton's 1,248, AP's unofficial estimate shows. A total of 2,025 delegates is needed for the nomination.

Even if Clinton scores a net gain of 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, Obama can make that up with wins in smaller states such as North Carolina and South Dakota, which vote later.

obama has more support from congress:

Obama’s advantage over Clinton would be most pronounced in the Southern and Western states President Bush carried in 2000 and 2004, say lawmakers interviewed by The Hill. In total, 32 members of Congress from these “red states” have endorsed Obama. Twenty-two lawmakers from those states have backed Clinton.

On the Minds of Superdelegates 1
On the Minds of Superdelegates 2
On the Minds of Superdelegates 3
On the Minds of Superdelegates 4

Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy
Clinton Must Win Pennsylvania
It’s Still Over for Clinton

My Favorite Comment of the Day

this comment follows a story in the washington post, the story where obama points out that he's not going to be clinton's no. 2, since he's on top:

You should try writing Hillary speeches. It's getting easier by the minute.

Mississippi loss: Too many proud blacks

Wyoming caucus: Caucus are very undemocratic except in states like NH where I won.

Texas primacaucus: Delegate results are still being counted and even though Obama will win more delegates, I should keep telling voters "I won Texas!!"

Eliot Spitzer's support: His superdelegate vote should count since he's innocent until semen evidence is provided.

FL and MI primaries: So what if governors and their voters broke the rule. If they can't revote, how do I have another crack at the nomination?

Pledge delegates: They aren't legally pledged and should be free to vote for however they want.

Superdelegates: They should exercise their own judgement instead of listening to the will of the people.

Superdelegates, Superdelegates, Superdelegates
General Election Map and Calculator
Obama: the Un-Beholden President
Bogus Big States Argument
Obama’s Pennsylvania Strategy
It’s Still Over for Clinton