Check out Silver's analysis here. He also notes:
A well-rounded commentary on Barack Obama popularity would take note of this context. It would also disclaim, however, that Obama's first 50 days have been anything other than typical. A typical president, 50 days or so into his term, is choosing the drapes for the Lincoln Bedroom and picking out a puppy dog -- generally unobjectionable sorts of activities. Obama has chosen to put forward nearly the entirely of his agenda. One can make the case that Obama has attempted to push his agenda further in 50 days than most Presidents do in a year. Let's take that proposition somewhat literally: what do a President's approval ratings typically look like a year or so into his term?
