david axelrod, obama's chief strategist, said that by may 20, they expect to have enough delegates. so i've answered my own question about why hillary is staying in -- cause it's almost over. she may as well go out on a high note and raise more money from her supporters so that she can pay off her debts. the next contests are may 13 west virginia (26 delegates) and may 20 is kentucky (47 delegates) and oregon (48 delegates). obama needs 169 more delegates, and should get roughly 60 from the next few contests, so they must be expecting more superdelegates.
cnn: Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod, said his candidate and Clinton will "probably end up roughly splitting the remaining delegates" in those races.upcoming primaries
"There's more superdelegates uncommitted right now than there are remaining pledged delegates," Axelrod said. "We feel by May 20, we will have secured a majority of the delegates. So I think we're in a very strong position here."
good grief, more insight from politico:
It’s a train wreck waiting to happen, with one candidate claiming to be the nominee while the other vigorously denies it, all predicated on an argument over what exactly constitutes the finish line of the primary race.
The Obama campaign agrees with the Democratic National Committee, which pegs a winning majority at 2,025 pledged delegates and superdelegates—a figure that excludes the penalized Florida and Michigan delegations. The Clinton campaign, on the other hand, insists the winner will need 2,209 to cinch the nomination—a tally that includes Florida and Michigan.
“We don’t accept 2,025. It is not the real number because that does not include Florida and Michigan,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Clinton’s two chief strategists. “It’s a phony number.”
Wolfson said they intend to contest the DNC’s 2,025 number “every day,” as well as any declaration of victory made by Obama based upon that number, because it does not include Florida and Michigan.
In January, Clinton won both states by wide margins when Obama did not actively contest them. The two states were stripped of their delegates for holding early primaries not sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee.
Obama will not reach the 2,025 magic number on May 20. Rather, on that date he is all but certain to hit a different threshold—1,627 pledged delegates, which would constitute a winning majority among the 3,253 total pledged delegates if Florida and Michigan are not included.
“On May 20 we’re going to declare victory,” said an Obama senior advisor who asked that his name be withheld to speak candidly, adding that after those contests they will be “the ones with the most pledged delegates and the most popular votes.”
While the nature of that declaration of victory is “still developing,” in the advisor’s words, the Obama campaign contends that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates should be the party nominee.
“Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded,” wrote Obama campaign manager David Plouffe Wednesday in a memo to superdelegates. “It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around.”
But the Clinton campaign’s insistence on counting Florida and Michigan would alter not only the overall delegate math, but the pledged delegate math as well. Because if the two states are included in the count, the total number of pledged delegates would rise from 3,253 to 3,566—which means the magic number for a majority rises to 1,784, not 1,627 as the Obama campaign asserts.
the democratic national committee needs to show some leadership and step up real fast.
No Way, No How Can Hillary Win
It’s Still Over for Hillary
The Clintons’ Fraud Case
No Way, No How Can McCain Win
The Incredible Shrinking Republicans
How Hillary Exploited “White Working Class”
The Real Reason Hillary Stays In
Hillary Compensates for Her Femaleness
