at the end of all the contests, obama will need 122 superdelegates and clinton will need 229. here's an analysis at real clear politics.
RCP: For this calculation, I assumed that Hillary Clinton would win 60 percent of the delegates from Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico, Barack Obama would win 60 percent of the delegates from North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota, and that Indiana's delegates would be split evenly between Clinton and Obama. I also allocated a small number of remaining delegates from earlier primaries and caucuses based on the overall results in those states. Since Democrats in Michigan and Florida have now decided not to hold do-over primaries, I did not include these states in my calculations.
more:
It turns out that there is a fairly strong relationship between the preferences of superdelegates who have endorsed a candidate and the preferences of the voters in their states: 72 percent of superdelegates from Clinton states are supporting Clinton while 63 percent of superdelegates from Obama states are supporting Obama. Clinton is doing slightly better at winning superdelegates from her states than Obama is doing at winning superdelegates from his states. But this may be largely a result of the head start that she had in lining up support from superdelegates because of her early lead in the national polls and her longstanding ties to Democratic leaders. In recent weeks, Obama has been narrowing Clinton's lead among superdelegates, and most of his gains have occurred among superdelegates from states that he carried in the primaries and caucuses.
Based on the pattern of superdelegates supporting the candidate who won the primary or caucus in their state and assigning the remaining primary states to the candidate they are generally expected to support, we can determine how Clinton and Obama are likely to fare among the remaining uncommitted superdelegates.
Even if she is able to maintain her previous rate of success in winning the support of superdelegates from Clinton and Obama states, Hillary Clinton would only be expected to garner the support of 53 percent of the remaining undeclared superdelegates, far short of the 66 percent she would need to overcome an Obama lead of 107 delegates. These results indicate that unless Hillary Clinton can dramatically reduce her current deficit in pledged delegates in the remaining primaries, her chances of gaining enough support among uncommitted superdelegates to win the nomination are minimal.
