Obama Memo on Town Hall Debate

TO: Interested Parties

FR: Bill Burton, National Press Secretary

RE: The Town Hall Presidential Debate

DA: October 7, 2008


"'When are you going to take the gloves off?' a John McCain supporter wanted to know this afternoon. 'How about Tuesday night?' McCain replied, grinning and looking ahead to his crucial second debate with Democrat Barack Obama." Washington Post, 10/2/08

John McCain is running out of time for a game-changing event. In the latest sign of desperation, his campaign admitted just yesterday that if they "keep talking about the economic crisis, they're going to lose." It's our view that the American people are already worried about losing – their homes, their jobs and their health care – and it's up to the candidates at this debate to demonstrate who is best equipped to make sure that they can get ahead again.

In order to change the dynamics of this race, we anticipate that McCain will launch his nastiest attacks and continue to lie about Barack Obama's record and his vision to fundamentally change our country. We don't know if McCain will continue his refusal to even look at Obama on stage -- like in their first debate -- but we fully expect that his "turn the page" strategy to ignore the economy will be seen in full view for 90 minutes of character attacks against Barack Obama.

The fact is, McCain has erratically been all over the map in recent weeks, telling Americans that the fundamentals of the economy are strong only days before claiming to suspend his campaign and warning of another depression. John McCain just doesn't get it. The American people aren't interested in nasty, false attacks, and they're not interested in four more years of Bush policies. But that's all he's offering.

If all he does is attack Barack Obama, as he's said he'll do, it will be yet another colossal missed opportunity. In the face of those attacks, Barack Obama will continue to offer steady leadership, and talk about his plan to give real relief to the middle class and create good jobs here in America.

When it comes to sheer format, we enter today's debate the decided underdog. John McCain does extremely well in town hall settings. It's been his favorite format throughout his career and we think that he will of course do very well. See below for more reviews of John McCain's town hall performances.

From the Wall Street Journal:

The Town Hall Format Of The Debate Favors McCain. "McCain finally gets his long-demanded joint town-hall meeting with Democratic rival Sen. Barack Obama on Tuesday night in Nashville, Tenn. The Republican's performance in the second of three presidential debates -- the only one held in the format he tends to favor -- could help determine his ability to stay competitive in a race that seems to have moved against the Arizona senator over the past week."

From the Washington Post:

McCain Is Engaged In "Especially Serious Preparations" For The Town Hall Debate, Which His Former Campaign Manager Said Is "Probably Going To Be The Best Kind Of Forum He Is Going To Be In." "McCain appears to be engaged in especially serious preparations for Tuesday's debate, one of his last opportunities to change the trajectory of a race that may be slipping out of his control. He is certainly doing more formal preparation than he did before last month's debate in Mississippi. … 'McCain has done so many of these over the years that it's probably going to be the best kind of forum he is going to be in,' said his former campaign manager Terry Nelson. 'It's a great opportunity for him and the campaign.' … An open question is how aggressively McCain will take the fight to Obama on Tuesday night. One senior McCain adviser said Sunday that he expects both candidates to draw contrasts with each other on the economy, but he seemed to suggest McCain would stay away from personal attacks. This official said McCain is looking forward to the debate because he likes the freewheeling town hall format, and he expects it to focus on the candidates' economic plans."

From Reuters:

Fordham Professor Paul Levinson: "The Town Hall Debate Is McCain's Best Debate Format." "The town hall debate is McCain's best debate format," said Paul Levinson, a professor at Fordham University in New York. "Obama ... clearly is a much better speaker to a huge crowd or an interviewer (than he is at a debate)."

From the San Fransico Chronicle:

Communications Expert Ruth Sherman Said That McCain Has The Advantage In Town Hall Formats And Is Far More Comfortable And Experienced In What Can Be A Challenging Setting. "Communications expert and author Ruth Sherman said that, in normal times, McCain would have an advantage in Tuesday's town hall format- he's done more than 100 such meetings, and is far more comfortable and experienced in what can be a challenging setting.

Undecided Voters in Tennessee: Really?

Update: The debate has rules:

The Obama-McCain event tonight consists of two parallel press conferences that happen to be in the same room. The detailed rules hammered out by the two campaigns state that the questions were to have been submitted in advance by the audience members and over the Internet. The questioner may not change the question and the microphone will be cut off after the question. Neither the questioner nor the moderator, Tom Brokaw of NBC, may ask followup questions. The candidates may not question each other. There will be no debate at all. Who does this format favor? Probably neither candidate. Usually the questions the general public asks aren't very hard, are largely predictable in advance, and have already been asked 100 times ("how will you fix the economy?"). The candidates have stock answers they will reel off. Given the current state of polling, McCain needs to shake things up and Obama needs to keep the status quo. An event that doesn't rock the boat much thus de facto works for Obama. Nevertheless, once in a while something unexpected happens at one of these events. In 1992, someone asked the candidates how the national debt affected them personally. George H.W. Bush was flustered by the question (by which the questioner probably meant the budget deficit) and it threw him off stride somewhat. Thanks to Political Wire for the pointer to the event rules.

The town hall debate tonight is being held in Tennessee, which is as republican as it gets. Racism runs deep in Tennessee and pretty much the only issue that these voters care about is abortion.

Belmont University, where the debate is being held, is made up of McCain supporters, according to an NPR report this morning. So I'm wondering what are the chances that the audience is truly undecided. Even if the audience is undecided, the audience is likely to lean republican. It seems they'd have to bus in audience members from New York to get an unbiased audience. Is there such a thing as the undecided voter?

Will it be another debate like the Gibson, Stephanopoulos-moderated primary debate?
Will the questions focus on issues or bring about character attacks? McCain wants to scare up votes for himself, so he'll likely be luring Obama throughout the debate. I'd say this Tennessee audience will be stacked against Obama, but that's not necessarily a negative for Obama.

Here's what the local paper has to say:

Tennessean: As the two men get set for their second presidential campaign debate at
8 tonight in Nashville, otherwise known as Music City, Republican nominee McCain needs to change the words and the music. Democrat Obama would just as soon sing in the same key from now until Election Day.

The debate, a town-hall-style affair at Belmont University, comes after one of the roughest periods of the general election campaign for McCain and an escalation in personal attacks from both sides.

Amid rising economic anxiety while Congress struggled to pass a $700 billion bailout of the mortgage and credit industries, McCain has fallen in national polls and in several key battleground states. The Arizona senator had pulled even or ahead in early September after choosing Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, but even her steady debate performance last week did not close the gap for the GOP.

The case for McCain gets tougher for each day the focus remains on economic worries and for each day Obama avoids a major misstep that would renew concerns about his preparedness for the presidency.

The campaign has taken a decidedly negative turn since Thursday night's vice presidential debate. Palin accused Obama of "palling around with terrorists" — a reference to his political ties to former Weather Underground radical William Ayers. The Obama campaign released a lengthy Web video Monday about McCain's role in the Keating Five S&L scandal of the late 1980s.

The new nastiness sets up a caustic atmosphere for tonight's debate. Here are three things to look for:

Six Million Questions for Town Hall Debate

My questions for John McCain: When did you decide to turn the republican party into the ugly party?
Which country are we going to war with next?
How can you stand there and claim to be honorable?
How can you choose Palin and say you put country first?
What happened to your Christian values? Or do they only apply to gay marriage and abortion?
Why are you lying so frequently to the American people?
Are you too old to lead the nation?
Why are you such an angry man?
Did you know that smearing Obama is the same as smearing me, a real average Joe, not some pretend one.
Why are you so creepy?
Who would you put in charge of the economy? Phil Gramm?
What are you going to do for the middle class? How about the poor?
Who (besides Palin) will lead the nation if something happens to you?
Why did you really choose Palin?

NYT: At least six million questions have been submitted via the Internet to be asked at the town-hall-style presidential debate Tuesday in Nashville between Senators Barack Obama and John McCain. That’s a lot of queries for 90 minutes, and obviously they won’t all get asked — there will be time for only 15 to 20.

The moderator, Tom Brokaw of NBC News, is sifting through those millions of questions to find six or seven that he might pose. The other dozen or so questions will come from among an audience of about 80 likely voters from the Nashville area who will be on stage with the candidates.

Mr. Brokaw will meet with audience members on Tuesday as he seeks a balance between foreign and domestic topics.