Obama Up in Indiana and North Carolina Polls May 4

zogby: obama is up in north carolina by 9 and up in indiana by 2.

Indianans Say Hillary is the Negative Candidate By Far

thank you indiana. that indianans recognize hillary's lousy disposition means obama has a good chance there.

south bend tribune: One thing Hoosiers have noticed is the tone of the campaign, according to the poll.

Some 48 percent said Clinton was running the more negative campaign of the two, compared to the 23 percent who pointed their finger at Obama. About 21 percent said both were equally negative and 8 percent weren’t sure.

And what do the campaigns think of that?

Clinton has answered Obama attacks, Swain said.

“You really can’t sit back and let misleading statements or attacks go unanswered,” he said. “And so from our campaign, it really is about setting the record straight, making sure that if there were questions about Senator Clinton’s record on an issue that the voters actually have the facts in front of them.”

Obama, on the other hand, has benefited from the perception that Clinton is more negative, even in Pennsylvania, said Griffis, his Indiana spokesman.

who can beat mccain in indiana (indiana hasn't voted for a democrat president in decades):

south bend tribune: The poll asked separate samples of voters who would win against John McCain - Clinton or Obama?

In either scenario, McCain wins Indiana, but Obama is slightly closer to beating him than is Clinton.

McCain would get 52 percent of the vote to Clinton’s 41 percent, said the sample of 600 likely voters from both parties.

McCain would get 51 percent to Obama’s 43 percent.

North Carolina Gives More To Obama

nc newsobserver: North Carolinians voted with their wallets last month, giving Sen. Barack Obama nearly three times as much money as they gave his rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
An analysis by the Charlotte Observer found that Obama raised more than $600,000 from North Carolinians in March, compared to just over $200,000 for Clinton.

Obama got a big boost from the Triangle, particularly donors in Durham and Chapel Hill.

He also tapped supporters of former N.C. Sen. John Edwards, who dropped his own presidential campaign in January.

north carolina pollsindiana polls

The Hillary Reality

the hillary camp won't be throwing back the shots for too long. she's not in pennsylvania anymore:

wash post: Clinton's path to the nomination remains extraordinarily treacherous even after the victory in Pennsylvania. Her margin was decisive, but even some of her most loyal supporters privately expressed doubts last night that she can prevail in the long battle against Obama.

The senator from Illinois still leads in the number of pledged delegates and the popular vote. He is almost certain to hold the delegate lead and will probably maintain the popular-vote advantage when the primaries end in early June. Perhaps more important, Clinton's campaign is nearly broke, whereas Obama has an enormous amount of money in the bank to throw into the next two contests and beyond.

But for the second time in seven weeks, first in the Texas and Ohio primaries and now in Pennsylvania, Obama did not deliver a decisive blow against Clinton when he had an opportunity to bring the race to an end, despite heavily outspending her and waging an aggressive and negative campaign in the final days. His advisers had hoped to hold Clinton's victory margin to mid-single digits and appeared to have fallen short of that goal.

"He broke every spending record in this state trying to knock us out of this race," Clinton told her supporters in Philadelphia last night. "Well, the people of Pennsylvania had other ideas."

Obama's loss in Pennsylvania raised anew questions about his ability to win the big industrial states that will be critical to the Democrats' hopes of winning back the White House in November. In the coming days, Clinton's camp will try to play on those doubts with uncommitted superdelegates -- who have been moving toward Obama over the past two months -- urging them to remain neutral until the primaries are over.

Geoff Garin, Clinton's co-chief strategist, called Pennsylvania a potential turning point in the Democratic race. "Senator Obama had every opportunity to go out and make his case and show he could win an industrial state," he said. "The fact that Hillary not just held her own but gained strength at the end gives us real momentum going into Indiana and North Carolina."

David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, said the loss was expected and did little to change the trajectory of a nomination battle that continues to favor his candidate.

"Some states are stronger for our opponent," he said. "Some are stronger for us. We assumed she had an edge there [in Pennsylvania] and we would try to keep it as close as we could. You have to be clear-eyed about that. We have two contests coming up in two weeks. We'll see where the race is after that. . . . The structure of the delegate contest will not be changed appreciably, and that's the most important factor in the race." more

indiana and north carolina hold primaries may 6. west virginia, may 13.
indiana polls

New Indiana Poll Puts Obama in Lead

obama has a 5 point lead in the downs poll. obama's supporters tend to be democrats, independents and some republicans. clinton's base is largely democrats.

578 registered Hoosier voters likely to participate in the May 6 Democratic primary prefer Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton. Obama received 50% of the support and Clinton received 45%, with 5% undecided (margin of error +/- 4.2).

Clinton’s most solid support comes from the most partisan Democrats (51% Clinton to 45% Obama), with weaker Democratic identifiers, independents, and most Republicans tending to support Obama.

Obama outperforms Clinton with Indiana men (55% to 42%) while women are for Clinton (48% to 46%)--but within the margin of error.

Likely Indiana Democratic primary voters over 50 prefer Clinton to Obama (53% to 42%) while Obama leads among the voters under 50 (59% to 36%).

Meanwhile, white Democratic primary Hoosier voters also fall within the margin of error on vote preference with 48% indicating they would support Clinton and 47% who would support Obama. Obama dominates among African-Americans 78% to 17%.

The effects of income and education follow similar patterns concerning Democratic primary support. Higher educated likely Democratic primary voters support Obama while the less educated of these voters support Clinton. Clinton does relatively better than Obama among those with lower incomes, while Obama does particularly well among the highest income Hoosiers in this voting block.

Momentum: Vote Switching and Timing of Decision

As a state whose primary comes later, Indiana provides a rare opportunity to demonstrate how momentum builds for candidates following primary and caucus results. Obama has gathered more support during the primary and caucus season, but it has come later than one would expect given the string of successes he put together throughout February.

Clinton’s support has been more stable, but she also seems to have convinced many Hoosier Democrats to support her following her Ohio and Texas primary successes.

As the frontrunner coming into the nomination contest season, Hillary Clinton has enjoyed more consistent support among likely Democratic primary voters in Indiana. Sixty-six percent of the 262 likely Clinton primary voters surveyed always supported Clinton. 27% of her supporters switched their vote to her from another candidate (margin of error +/- 5.9).

Of the 288 Obama supporters, 55% had always supported him and 32% of his supporters switched to him from another candidate (margin of error +/- 5.9).

Interestingly, despite being Obama’s worst period in the Democratic nomination season, 29% of Obama’s Indiana supporters decided to vote for him after the early-March Ohio and Texas primaries. Fourteen percent of Obama supporters decided after the February 5 Super Tuesday contests, and 12% after the early-January Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Four of ten Obama supporters decided before the nomination primaries and caucuses began.

The patterns are very similar for Hillary Clinton, with slightly more of her supporters deciding before the primary and caucus season (47%). Thirteen percent decided after Iowa and New Hampshire, 10% after Super Tuesday, and 26% after the Ohio and Texas contests of March 4.

General Election Head-to-Head Results in Indiana

For likely registered November voters deciding between John McCain and Barack Obama, McCain received 51% to Barack Obama’s 44%, with 5% undecided (+/- 2.8 margin of error). McCain would best Hillary Clinton 53% to 42% if registered likely Hoosier general election voters were to have voted April 14 - April 16. 5% remain undecided in that race.

This is a mixed result for Democrats in a state that votes very Republican in presidential elections. While behind, the two Democrats are much closer at this point to the lukewarm 47% to 41.5% victory Bob Dole registered against Bill Clinton in the state in 1996 than the George Bush Indiana defeat of John Kerry 60% to 39% in 2004 or Bush’s 57% to 41% victory over Al Gore in 2000.

The two Democrats attract different types of voters relative to Senator McCain. Clinton’s support relies on traditional Democrats while Obama appeals slightly less to Democrats and more to independents and even some Republicans. Specifically, Hillary Clinton gets 83% of strong Democrats compared to 74% of strong Democrats for Obama, with 12% of strong Democrats going to McCain if Clinton is the nominee and 19% of strong Democrats going to McCain if Obama is the nominee. These latter groups are likely ardent supporters of the opposing candidate who may swing back to the party for the general election following the sharp nomination battles.
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